THE FIRST REAL REPORT BY THE ARAB LEAGUE!
The AL Monitor
Mission Report is about to be discussed this weekend.
The AL
continues to realize it is easier to complain you are not provided the
opportunity to help shape events in the Middle East than it is to actually
accomplish something.
I've not seen
the DRAFT report, but I predict the overall theme.
The best way to
describe the report would be middle of the road with some harsh comments about
the Al Assad Government.
They will
recommend staying in Syria....... Just what Al Assad and Iran want.
Here is the
problem!
The AL and the
UNSC are so divided on what to do over Syria; they simply cannot make a stand.
Both the AL and
the UN realize the volatility the Syrian Issue brings to the whole region.
The Russian's
warning of Sectarian Warfare is correct and that is what both agencies are
paralyzed with.
The AL has not
only tripped their first time out of the box as a regional body, they have set
themselves up for complete failure.
Disgrace is a
devastating concept to an Arab Male.
The
"Resistance" in Syria may want the AL to approach the UNSC, but the
AL knows what that would mean to them.
They have spent
years trying to convince the world they are a body that should be allowed to
shape the future of the Middle East.
To go hat in
hand to the UNSC would be admitting they are exactly what they have been
accused of being for years.... a regional joke!
My hunch is the
AL will do what they do best.
As Arabs, they
will increase the behind the scenes pressure!
Weapons
support, Muslim Brotherhood support with public messaging, and offers to Al
Assad to leave; much like the GCC did with the issue in Yemen, will become the
tactic of the AL.
Unfortunately,
the odds of this tactic succeeding depend on the Iranian resolve to not lose
Syria as a proxy state.
The AL has to
come to terms with Iran if they want to avoid a sectarian war in Syria and most
likely in Lebanon.
Turkey, the
Ottomans, is the strong card in AL game, but Turkey will do what is best for
Turkey, not the AL.
As we all know,
there is far more at stake here than just the future of Syria.
A tactical side
note:
The reported
ceasefire in the Syrian town of Zabadani is an interesting event.
As a town that
is close to the Lebanese border, I am curious the Syrian Military would agree
to let the "Resistance" come to terms of a ceasefire.
I'm not sure
what units were being utilized to control the town, but their losses were
enough to make YOUTUBE clips. (Burning Tanks and Resistance members with anti
tank weapons. Russian weapons...
As was the case
for the Russian military in Grozny, the Syrian military is figuring out what it
means to send Tanks into an Urban environment without dismounted, infantry
support and air support.
It could very
well be the " Resistance" was able to hold strategic parts of
Zabadani given the lack of air support for the Syrian military, something the
Syrians are reluctant to do right now; fixed Wing not rotor wing,
What I find
interesting is where this town is.
If the
"Resistance" is able to resupply and hold a town like Zabadani, does
this indicate they have support from some operation inside Lebanon?
If so, then
Lebanon becomes a target for not only Syria but Iran as well.
Hezbollah is
tasked to hold Lebanon and if they are not doing their job, Iran will force the
issue.
Al Jazeera will
cover the AL meeting live and it will be interesting what classic, "words
between the words" the AL comes up with.
