CASTLE ALAWITE!!
Ok, the last two weeks have seen a noticeable change in the
Syrian government's achievements against the Rebels/ Freedom fighters / or
whatever else you chose to call them!!!
At the tactical level, it's easy to understand this shift
given the obvious increased commitment by Hezbollah and Iran .
Here is the fundamental questions everyone should be asking.
Will it work?
Will Assad and his "friends" turn the tide on the
Civil War in Syria ?
My answer is no!!
History is chalked full of "counter attacks" that
ether turn the tide of a conflict or indicate the last great gasp before
defeat.
In Assad's case, it's a mixture of both.
Most "experts" this week have commented on Assad's
counter offensive aimed at Rebel strongholds and how these actions are designed
to limit the flow of supplies to the Rebel groups.
Well, I can buy part of that theory and I totally understand
Assad wishing that is exactly how the rest of the world would perceive his
actions, but I'm not convinced.
My hunch is Assad is clearing the area agasent to his
fallback Kingdom.... Tartus and Latakia ..... "Castle Alawite"!!!
It's possible the commitment of Iran's Strategic Reserve, "
Hezbollah" may produce some temporary success, but Hezbollah has problems
of it's own and the idea of them depleting their war stock for months on end,
along with Iran's, is simply not sound logic on Tehran's part.
Nope... my bet is Assad is building his escape path to
"Castle Alawite" or at least that is what his most loyal followers
are praying for.
Here is the problem for his followers..... there is only so
much room available inside of Castle Alawite and you better be from the right
"clan" if you want a door pass!!!
Yes.... Assad has bought himself some time, but he is not
going to turn the tide of the Civil War... .the time for that to happen is long
passed.
Collapsing back into Castle Alawite with a few chosen followers....
to include Hezbollah and Iranian operatives is going to be the end state... or
he is going to wake up Dead... still a possibility if the Tsar can work a deal
or two along the line.
Can you imagine the bargaining position the Tsar is in right
now?
Can you see the reaction if he was to say to the rest of the
Word, "Ok... I'll pull out and tell the Iranians it's time to settle for Syria as a modern day version of Lebanon in the
80s... Mad Maxville, but here is what I want in return"!!!!
Mad Maxville... .a place where Hezbollah can still operate
from and serve the Master of Tehran if needed.
Assad better be ready to move into Castle Alawite faster
than he thinks.... for the Tsar just may have other ideas for his future.
Last but not least........ If Assad comes to the conclusion,
once he moves into his Castle, that nobody gets a clean shot at ruling what is
left of Syria; then he is capable of just about anything... and we all know
what that means.
