TURKEY AND THE SAUDI. WHAT IS REALLY TAKING PLACE?

Just about the time the Arab Spring started, I posted that in the end, the real issue for the region was going to be about power. It’s always about power. You pick the spot in the world and it’s about power. Back then, my comments came along two lines. One, the struggle between the Ottomans with their new Sultan, the Arabs with Saudi leading the charge and the Persians with Iran to once again, own the Arabs. By the way, owning the Arabs was and is the goal of the Sultan as well. The second issue that was and is tearing the region apart was once again about power, but this time the struggle was and is inside of one religion. So why all the talk about the tension between the Turks and Saudi? Why does that surprise anyone? Does it really surprise them? If you read someone’s babble about the weakened relationship between the Turks and the Saudis, stop reading! Don’t waste your time on the words of an idiot looking to get paid for this week’s editorial. Ottomans and Arabs. Oil and water. Persians and Arabs. Oil and water. Ottomans and Persians. Oil and water. Does it really matter? Does this increasing departure of tolerance of each other really matter; for that is all there really is, tolerance. Does Turkey’s support for Qatar really amount to anything? Yes. At this point in history, yes it does and here is why.

Qatar: 

I’ve not spoken much about this ongoing issue with Qatar. I posted something a few weeks ago, but then I sad back to watch what the shakeup in Saudi was really all about and what it might lead to. That’s a topic I will address in the next few days, maybe!

Why? Why is Turkey supporting Qatar? Is it the gas? Is the banking system? Is it Qatar’s funding in support of Turkey? Yes on all three counts, but it’s more than that. It’s part of the “vision” of the New Sultan. Divide and conquer? Is that the Sultan’s plan? Help split the Arabs. Help pull apart the regional coalition called the GCC? Even if this was not the real plot behind the support of Qatar, how could the pending King of Saudi see it any other way? What does the young Prince think of the Sultan? What does the think of the Ottomans? Yes, they are Sunni together by history, but that is not the baseline of loyalty in that part of the world. Blood! Blood is the cornerstone of alliances and there is no Ottoman blood in the Prince’s vanes! Taking sides is a dangerous game in the Middle East. Perception rules the world of international affairs and the perception of the young Prince may very well be the time for working with the Turks is almost over. Enter. Egypt. Well not really enter, but increased support that is the step that is taking place now. So how does the Sultan answer the increased Saudi / Egyptian alliance? Well, in a way that won’t make the situation any less dangerous.

Persians and Ottomans:

Over the past few years, I can’t remember how many times I’ve addressed the relationship between the Ottomans and the Persians and I’m too lazy to search my own blogsite! So, let’s look at this section of the post as a refresher. Is there anything the Sultan sees as appealing when he looks to the Persians? Trade? Well, somewhat, but nothing that makes his mouth water. The Kurds? Yes, they both have a common goal in keeping Kurdistan from taking place. Shia vs Sunni? Yes that bothers him, but not from a religious standpoint. He’s not exactly a Sunni zealot. He most likely only prays, when he needs to have someone seeing him do so. Pressure? Does the perception that the Ottomans are talking the Persians impact the Arabs, the Saudis? Yep, you bet! How about the West / US? What is the perception of the Turks talking with the Iranians? Frankly, Turkey has been the Brother in Law you can’t stand, but have to put up with for over ten years now. Tolerance. That is the common trail the West / US seems to be walking on the topic of Turkey.  It does help to poke the Sultan in the side every once in a while with his arch nemesis living in the US.  If things keep going the way they are with Turkey, I wouldn’t put it passed the Donald to even have Gulan swing by the White House for a chat. The Sultan would storm around in his Castle; oh yes, he has a Castle………….a huge one, built just for him. Okay, back on track!

In typical times, a Ottoman, Persian photo op would not stir too much anger in the Arab world, but the Arab world is in crisis right now and it shows no sign of calming down anytime soon. Qatar is being played as a Pawn by both the Ottomans and the Persians. That Pawn has a history of not doing as they are told when orders come from the Arab Headquarters, Saudi. Enter the pending, and actually current King of Saudi and you have yet another dangerous flashpoint. Qatar is not behaving and they are not behaving because they believe they have other larger bodies to hide behind, to include the US. Is everyone out to end the Arab’s dominance in the region? Is the West / US / part of the plot? What is the best way to strike back at this anti-Arab agenda? Who is the one that needs the poke in the eye to show the rest of the plotters just how serious you are? I wonder when an Iranian naval vessel is going to be fired on. Guess how my book about the next world war starts? I just hope it doesn’t happen before I’m finished writing. I hate when I predict something and then it happens before I can show how smart I amJ