AS THE ARAB SPRING TURNS TO FALL…!

Months ago, when the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus/ was really getting underway, I made three general predictions.

1. All roads would eventfully lead to Israel and the Palestinian Statehood issue.

2.  The ‘movement’ would lead to Iran realizing war with Israel maybe their only way to survive the “revolution”.

3.  The Social Revolutionary movement and the Fundamentalist would battle over who is really the champion of the cause.

As September goes from being the future to becoming the present, I feel safe in my statement that all three of my predictions are coming true.

Let me explain why I believe all three of my predictions are moving forward into the Arab Fall and soon to be the Arab Winter; we may not make it to the Arab Winter!.

The Palestinian Statehood issue becomes center stage for all three predictions!

If the theme of the Arab Spring was and is “Injustices, then the Palestinian Statehood issue was bound to be the cornerstone event.

Israel and the UN have understood this from the moment both recognized the Arab Spring was more than just a Tunisian event.

Iran sees their future when they look to Syria and Egypt and this has moved them to search for a way out of their pending  doom.

As Hamas pulled away from them and Hezbollah became embroiled in the STL issue, Iran understood the best Defense is a good Offense.  

Prodding the Israelis with border protest was an easily identifiable “ clue” as to the course of action Iran was going to take.

Iran knew they had to  make the Israeli, Palestinian confrontation the center piece of the Arab Spring.

Iran could not  wait for a Syrian style protest to appear inside their country.

As September approaches, the focus of the Arab public and the world media must be the PA statehood issue.

It must suck every once of energy out of the Arab Spring even if it leads to war.

Here is the problem.

Most wars start with a disastrous miscalculation on the part of one the parties involved and Iran is fulfilling this historical theory.

To save itself, it must risk warfare with Israel and bank on Israel’s restrained response.

What Iran has seemingly forgotten is  what the key issue to Israel is when it comes to Iran.

Yes Israel agonizes over the PA statehood issue, but when Iran’s name enters the conversation, the focus becomes…. nuclear weapons.

This is the disastrous miscalculation I mentioned above.

Iran is nearly to the point they must chose between civil unrest and a controlled… limited war with Israel.. hopefully executed by Hamas and Hezbollah with litlte impact to Iran itself.

This becomes the second huge miscalculation on Iran’s part, but this is one that some of their leaders understand to be flawed.

Hamas and Hezbollah willingness to destroy themselves in a war with Israel for the sake of the future Persian Empire is a stretch at best.

Something Israel seems to understand better than Iran.

Finally, Iran sees the true leadership of the Arab Spring and because of that, they understand their options are limited.

The Social Revolutionaries of the Academic arena, over the course of the past several months, have beaten Iran in the public perception fight over the Arab Spring.

Discounting the Muslim Brotherhood’s hijacking scheme for the Arab Spring, one that has no Iranian motive, the Social Revolutionaries are truly seen as the champignons of the movement.

Iran knows all too well these champions will bring the movement into Iran.. along with the help of the Muslim Brotherhood.

So, the concepts of Control of the movement, war with Israel and Palestinian Statehood are intertwined beyond separation.

The movement will bring two issues to the forefront; the survival of the Iranian government and it’s   dream of a Persian Empire and Israel’s need to deal with the Iranian issue once and for all.

There will be an “Arab Fall”, but it I am not sure there will be an Arab Winter.

Fall may lead to conflict!

September is here and so is the true danger of the Arab Spring.