IRANIAN’S PROTEST. IS THERE ANYTHING DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

          I’m not sure what round this is, but it appears the old men in Tehran are facing yet another cycle of        protest against the government. Will this one play itself out like those in the past year or so? Most likely, at least that’s what the countries leadership is hoping for. Is there anything different this time around? Yes. The economy is even worse than in December of 2017. Is it bad enough for this uprising to take hold this time? That’s hard for anyone to predict, but if you watch the clips from the protest, it’s clear the government forces are reluctant to just go in and crush the events. Will the infamous rooftop snipers come into play? That depends on the government believing this round of protest may not subside. Remember, nothing disperses a crowd like seeing someone’s head explode. The odds are, the old men in Tehran are going to let this one playout for another day or two and then readdress their options. So, in the end, is this event any different than what we have witnessed in the past? Times have changed, and change is what makes a new protest potentially much different than past events.

From Bad to Worse:

          The Donald’s move on the Iranian nuclear “deal” set into motion a series of events that both DC and Tehran knew would impact the day to day lives in Iran. The continued crash of the Iranian currency was a predictable outcome of the US pulling out of the “deal”. The old men in Teheran also understood it would be increasingly difficult to blame Iran’s economy on the actions of the US. They can make that statement, but they also know the odds of the public believing that excuse is very slim. Their evidence is the fact none of the protest are marching to the chant of “Death to America”. Now, you can bet the government’s counter marches will begin ether today or in the next few days. If the old men don’t attempt this historical tactic, then that’s a sign they may be more worried than we know. They have two choices. They can attempt to contain the protest and hope the marching and yelling gets old; not the government’s style by the way. Or, they can meet the protest head on like they did the Green Party in 2009. That tactic worked then, but when they told Assad to use it in 2011, all hell broke loose! The old men in Tehran have one more option, but it’s by far the most dangerous option.

Outside Threat:

          It’s a timeless option nearly every government in history has turned to. If you have to rally a populace that is unwilling to support the government, then make them fear something far worse. Does anyone remember, “THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING”! Yep, the proverbial “Outside Threat”. It’s a tactic the old men in Tehran have used in the past, but this time around might be different. If the failing economy is the real catalyst of a pending revolt, why would they not use this time tested approach? My bet is they will, and they may do so in a dramatic fashion. Would the old men in Tehran risk a conflict for the sake of saving their rule? Absolutely. Would they risk this conflict on their own soil? That depends on just how desperate they become. For example, let’s say Iran pushes the events in Southern Syria to the point a limited conflict between Israel and Syria takes place. Could Tehran convince the youth of Iran the time had come to show their nationalistic pride? Remember this sense of Persian Pride is something the IRGC has been trying to populate inside the youth of Iran for well over a year now. What happens if the call for Nationalism fails? What if the youth of Iran continue with what they are already saying, ‘Stop spending money on Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Yemen and spend the money on Iran’s people’! Then what? Do the old men in Tehran take the conflict to the next level? At that point, do they have anything to lose? If they do push the crisis to the next level, a level where the existence of the Iranian military is threatened, what happens then? Just how loyal is the leadership of the IRGC? Just how loyal is the leadership of the Iranian military? Will they allow Iran to be broken to the level of Iraq or Syria? It’s far easier to round up a few dozen old fanatical men, than it is to fight your own country as well as an enemy’s military you know you cannot defeat.  How does this all play out? Where does this round of protest lead Iran? You can bet this scenario was table topped over and over again inside DC before The Donald set the game in motion. The US Secretary of State is in Moscow. The objective is to lay out the discussion between Putin and Trump at their pending summit. You just have to wonder what the discussion will be on the topic of Iran. The old men in Tehran are wondering what Putin and Trump will talk about and you can bet they won’t trust anything Moscow tells them after the meeting is over. Things just keep getting worse for the Iranian government, well, at least the current one.