HAS PRESIDENT TRUMP FOUND HIS MOVING “REDLINE”

Can a series of Tweets change the course of actions of a group of tyrannical fanatics who have been in power for over forty years? Are The Donald’s Tweets truly meant for the old men in Tehran or are they just rambling statements made to his base? What does the rest of the world think of these statements? Isn’t everyone use to them by now? How does a statement about Iran no longer existing play in Moscow and  Beijing? Did they even bother to read this latest statement? Does anyone really react to these Trump Tweets other than CNN and MSNBC? Here is the real question and it’s the only one that matters right now? Why. Why did The Donald send out this rather radical Tweet? What is going on that has him reacting the way he is?

The Status of the Mullahs:

               I said this the other day but let me make the statement again. Things have gone from bad to worse for the old men in Tehran. Stories continue to fly over the issue of Moscow’s attitude towards the Mullahs. Short answer. It’s getting worse and the Mullahs know it. Think that bothers them? You bet it does. Have they ever trusted the Russians? No. Have they worried over the concept of being used by Moscow? Everyday of the week. Do they believe the Russians would cut a deal with the US over Iran’s actions in the region if the Russians got something for it in return? Silly question. Long story short, the top cover from Moscow has so many conditions and none of them guarantee the survival of the Mullah’s rule.

               Money. The Mullahs are low on funds and that account is growing smaller by the day. Even when they deprive their own people of just about everything you could think of, they still can’t break even. Now, the rumors grow they can’t pay Hezbollah or other proxy fighting groups. How do you think that is going over for a bunch of young men who carry a gun, not because they are patriotic Persians or Shia, but because it gives them a paycheck and it’s fun? The Mullahs are being squeezed on all sides and they have only one person to blame, The Donald. Dwindling funds, and a public that grows more restless with each passing day, all the while order is expected to be kept by a group that is seeing pay become an issue. Yep….good luck with that scenario. What does this all mean for the rest of the world? Simple, and it’s an answer that has not changed for thousands of years. A leader that is in real trouble is most likely willing to do anything, at some point, to stay in power. Create the outside threat you say? Yep, that’s the historical answer. Take chances you would typically never take? Yep, that to. Risk it all if you think the end is near? Yes. So, just what was all this intelligence we heard about last week based on? Just how good is the US and “others” at seeing what Iran is up to? Real good…….real….real……good. 

               The old men in Tehran are in real trouble and the idea of playing poker with the US is the game we are witnessing unfold. Limited proxy events that give the Mullahs the ability to hide behind probable denial, that is where we stand as of today. 4 ships attacked, successfully I might add, along with an attack on a pipeline network, that was the first calculable series of events that Tehran put into motion. Here is the bad news, for the US that is. It drew little to no response. Was Tehran looking for a counterstrike by the US? To some degree most likely. Where they surprised when nothing happened? Undoubtedly. Did that nonresponse lead to the rocket attacks today in Baghdad? I would say yes. So, two weeks into this war of words and unmanned smart mines, how does the scorecard look? Well, it’s not good for the US and it’s not good for a very unpredictable Saudi Arabia. Why does the scorecard look that way? Why is Tehran scoring on the perception game?

The Donald’s Redline: 

               A few days ago, I made the comment it seemed Team Trump was so committed to “ The Deal of the Century” that an attack on four ships, after Iran was told not to, would go unanswered. It also seemed the Israelis were told to hold their fire on an event in Gaza that should have resulted in that area being reoccupied. Short answer, “ The Deal of the Century” could not be nullified by a regional crisis. How could the US / Team Trump/ land the “deal” if the whole area was in a shooting match? If the perception is, the US is not going to be pushed into something before they can place the “deal” on the table, then the opportunity to pick away at the mighty US became a very tempting concept. Could Tehran terrorize the EU into giving in on supporting Iranian demands / blackmail / by taking actions that convinced them a regional war was near? Why do you think Tehran came up with their, “you have 60 days to meet our demands” stance?

               As all of this is taking place, what happens? The Donald sends out a Tweet that sounds like a repeat of his threat to North Korea. So, in a way, The Donald put’s down his version of a “Redline” and backs it up with a Tweet? Twitter Warfare! I’m not sure that is a fully developed weapon’s platform. Yes, the perception poker game is being won by the Mullahs, but they have one problem. It’s not making them any money and folks; the people of Iran are not on the Mullah Fanclub list. What the Mullahs need is a series of events that scares the EU into giving them everything they want or at least enough to keep them in power and that means being able to pay Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and a dozen or so other proxy organizations, not to mention the IRGC and al-Quds. This whole thing is a game of survival and the ones trying to survive are as ruthless as they come. A few rockets in Baghdad and a few crippled ships, that’s not going to get it done and that is very…..very…..bad news. Yet, the news might be, just might be worse.

Money Talks.

               Let’s assume something here. Let’s assume part of the “Deal of the Century” was a two part plan.

Part One: Squeeze Tehran’s ability to make money. Squeeze so bad that paychecks to proxy groups could not be cut.

Part Two: Put an economic package on the table that equates into real jobs and real investments for not only Palestinian territories, but the immediate region as well. Bring the wealth of other Arab nations into the equation and tell the typical person on the street better days are coming and it’s not just a bunch of political words. Make the people believe it so much, they decide the time to stop supporting or tolerating the radicals has come. Yes, give real hope.

               Why do I bring that assumption up? Easy, it appears the economic slice of the “Deal of the Century” is the first part to be placed on the table. Okay. Will it work? Will it lead to a better starting point for the more difficult part of the “deal”? On paper, it sounds interesting, but here is the problem. Once again, the old men in Tehran get a vote. Just think of what they would be willing to do if they truly believed someone was going to pull the rug out from under their proxy fighters. What happens if the people of Gaza see jobs and investments coming, but they have to give up on Hamas first? Look, here is the bad news. The decisions on how the “Deal of the Century” will be approached are made in Tehran. Does anyone think the Mullahs will play along with this “deal”, a deal that spells their end to power? What are they willing to do in order to prevent that “deal” from taking place? My bet, a great deal more than four oil tankers or a few rockets into Baghdad.

               Have the rumors of how, “The Deal of the Century” might unfold made it back to Tehran? Have key players in the region been given a readahead? Does Tehran have the ability to pick up on these rumors and more importantly, hear the possible responses from key players? You bet they do. Something this huge has been and is being talked about around the clock. That’s why it’s called “ The Deal of the Century”. You can assume Tehran knows what is coming. You can also assume they have known for several weeks if not months. Did that put Tehran into motion? Did that start a process to disrupt this “deal” and did that process become the intelligence the US and others picked up on? If you ask me, I say yes, but even if I’m wrong, one thing is a given. The next few weeks are going to be very, very dangerous for the entire region. How to keep Saudi in check. That is my next topic, but I’ve got to ponder on a few things first. In the meantime. Let’s be entertained by the President and his Tweets!