IS ASSAD REALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THE UNTHINKABLE?
As I talked about early this week, the concept of Assad
utilizing WMD is more than just frightening; it's historical.
It's historical becuse there is a history of these types of
weapons being utilized in the Middle East.
It's historical because Assad knows these weapons have been
utilized in the past and the world stood by and watched.
the world complained, but in the end it did little to
nothing; until 2003!
So, does Assad think he can get away with using WMD?
Is Assad so desperate that he may utilize the last resort in
his arsenal?
As I asked this week, will his generals follow such a
dramatic order?
Does he truly control the weapons?
Well, this time, instead of just asking the questions, let
me attempt to answer them; my opinion of course!
DOES ASSAD THINK HE CAN GET AWAY WITH IT?
Most likely he is beginning to believe so, but he may not be
ready to execute the order..... just yet!
Again the issue of "history" in the region.
As disturbing as this would be, he could limit the action;
send the message he is serious about holding on to power. (
I give this theory backing only if the Tsar and the Persians tell him to go
ahead.)
He could accuse "outsiders" of the event, especially
a limited event.
"The 'Terrorist' stole them and used them on the people of
Syria".
Finally, lets assume Assad sees no way out of the Civil War
he now finds himself in and he understands that time is running out for his
military and his hold on power. HINT.. His military
is losing major engagements and that is without the Kurds attacking him!!!!
WILL HIS MILITARY LEADERS FOLLOW SUCH AN ORDER?
This is where one of
the last rays of hope still shines.
Given who left him last week and given how close that particular
General was to Assad's inner circle, will the other Generals follow such an
order?
Here is the cloud with this " ray of hope"!
I don't believe his military leaders are in total control of
this process.
To find the answer of how loyal his generals are, we must
look to Iran.
It's no secret he has lost confidence in many who he
considered "loyal" and even more important, Iran has lost confidence
in the Syrian General Officer ranks.
Simply put, if Assad decides or is told to execute a WMD
event, it will most likely be carried out with Iranian or Hezbollah oversight.
This event would force the countries of the region and the
West into action.
To prove Iran or it's proxy Hezbollah carried out such an
event on Syrian soil, would be a absolute "green light" for unified
action!
The danger becomes, how does Iran react to the reaction to
the WMD event?
Complicated enough for you yet?????
Ok, add the Tsar into the equation!!!
DOES HE TRULY CONTROL THE WEAPONS?
For the most part, I just gave you my opinion on this
question.
Here is one twist.
Who controls them if Assad wakes up dead????
Hezbollah???? Iran???? The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood?????
Before Israeli leadership is informed the WMDs are in Hezbollah hands, the locations will be
smoldering holes in the earth....
Ok, what is the near term danger?
If some of these weapons are on the move, and most believe
they are, where are they going and who are they going to?
Two questions the Israelis will not wait too terribly long
for answer.
For over a year now, I have preached, Chicken Little, just
how dangerous this situation in Syria was and is.
Syria is not Egypt... Syria is not Libya... Syria is not Tunisia.
Syria is the most dangerous event in the Middle East since
the 1973 war!
