THE TEMPO IN THE MIDDLE EAST SPEEDS UP!!
Here
are three quick issues that will give you a good snapshot of where
things
in the region stand as of today.
1. Look at this story and remember the events in
Syria set the tone for
events
in Lebanon.
Half
of Lebanon is cheered for the bombing in
Damascus, while the current
Lebanese
government condemned the bombing.
Hezbollah
is in far greater trouble than most realize and that is a real
danger.
Remember;
Iran cannot accept the loss of Hezbollah and Syria.
2. The Syrian government is trying to shape a
information campaign that
gets
the people of Damascus ready for witnessing uniformed members fighting
uniformed
members.
This
could be an indication of just how saver the defection issue has
become.
The
lack of well planned counter attacks might be the result of Assad's
military
commanders trying to determine what units can be trusted?
It
also takes time to execute a " counter strike", especially when you are caught off guard.
The
problem with telling the public they may see uniformed members
assaulting
their neighborhoods, besides the fact the public in Damascus
probably
no longer believes anything the government tells them, becomes they
don't
know who to trust.
To
put it in more simplistic terms, the people of Damascus can no longer tell who
is a good guy and who is bad guy and even that depends on what side you are on!
That
is a recipe for true, uncontrollable panic; the type of panic that
creates
a mass exodus and thus a refugee issue for Jordan, Turkey and
Israel.
3. Israel did not take the "bait" on
the bus bombing.
Notice
Netanyahu immediately placed the blame on Iran not just Hezbollah!
Israel
understands all too well Iran's plan to have Israel attack "Arabs"
not
Iran, thus giving Iran what it thinks would be the support of the Arab
world!!
It
will not work, but a plan Iran has never the less.
If
Iran is looking for an Israeli overreaction to an attack, it will have to
have
its proxy strike again.
My
bet is they will.
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The
Middle East has become the classic example of events moving far faster
than
intelligence and leadership can keep up with.
Everyone
is behind the power curve right now and events will drive the
region.
The
UN plan for Syria is dead... big surprise.
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