CHRISTMAS EVE 2012... WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Right at two years ago, many of us are already discussing the repercussions of conflict in Syria and how Syria was not going to be Libya or Egypt or Tunisia.

On Christmas Eve 2012, it is all too obvious how this confrontation has brought about many of the nightmares the region and indeed the world feared.

What started as an Arab spring over two years ago, is now morphed, as many feared, into an ever escalating sectarian conflict.

As is the case with all conflicts, the main stumbling block is the inconsistent and in most cases conflicting, "vision", of the parties involved.

The welfare of the people involved in the conflict has taken a backseat, as they always do, to the visions and desires and plans of others.

If sectarian warfare is truly the future of the region, then the outcome of that sectarian conflict becomes the paramount question.

What nations desire what results and what actions are they willing to take to reach those results or more importantly to prevent others from reaching their results?

The concept of "Proxy" operations\conflict\is not new to the Middle East.

Added to this complete lack of unity in the Middle East is the perplexing and extremely complicated issue of social media and social networking.

The days of nation state, "shaping", the actions of a conflict especially a proxy conflict are long gone.

It is becoming more and more apparent the speed of fraud information and social communication is far greater than the speed of nation state, "planning"!

All of this is leading us to realize that in the 21st century the ability to shape, prevent or minimize the damage of conflict is changing dramatically.

The Middle East in reality is becoming the 21st century version of a political, "Tower of Babel"!

Prior to the age of social media, social networking it was far more realistic to assume that nation states at the time to communicate and, "plan".

The world continues to struggle with the concept of a conflict that is virtually being watched 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.

To put it simply, world leaders cannot keep up.

Not only can world leaders not keep up but the so-called, "professional journalist", and professional networks struggle to get the story right or even cover the story at all.

At a time when a large proportion of the world turns to YouTube and bloggers to keep up with events in a crisis, one has to wonder what is the future of professional political leadership?

As dangerous and tragic as the Syrian situation might be, I'm afraid this entire event is an indicator of just how fast and confusing the next even larger crisis may become!

Nations that cannot deal with writing information have a tendency to do two things and one of them is much worse than the other.

The first, is the reality that they tend to get the story wrong.

The second and more dangerous point is they tend to panic!

Quite frankly the more micromanaging and totalitarian the government is the faster they will panic.

I just described the nation of Iran as it realizes it's status in the region.

A sectarian conflict mixed with a social media network interwoven with the economic imbalance of wealth creates a formula for disaster for Iran and quite frankly for several other Gulf states as well.

2013 approaches quickly and the dangers of conflict in the region are not getting any closer to resolution and more importantly any easier to deal with.

All of this is made all the more difficult by having multiple nations pulling in multiple directions desiring multiple outcomes.

Having said that I still find it amazing that the world is found, "unification", with a group now being labeled as the Syrian government in exile, yet the world cannot agree on what the in-state for the region should be.

What will 2013 hold?

My bet is the region becomes more complex, more destabilized and unfortunately more confrontational but more on that this week.