THE ASSASSINATION OF
AL-HASSAN.. WHO... WHY NOW?
Ok, so much for "conventional wisdom" when it
comes to the theory nobody wants to see Lebanon catch on fire.
So, did Assad call for the murder of al-Hassan?
Only if he got the green light from Tehran .
Did Tehran want Hezbollah to
take the brunt of the Sunni wrath in Lebanon because of this attack?
NO!
So, would Tehran
have sanctioned this attack?
Did someone or some country just execute a key individual in
the Special Tribunal of Lebanon case for the UN?
Yep.
Ok, then who would want that to happen?
Hezbollah?
Would Hezbollah conduct this operation without the approval
of Tehran ?
If so, why?
So far, the "conventional wisdom" on what happened
doesn't fit the logic of current events in the region.
Having said that, let me say something that is
"unconventional".
If you go back and read some of my post from early this year
and even late last year, you will find several occasions where I talked to the
issue of Iran and or Russia come to terms with how to out Assad, yet keep
control of Syria.
If anyone thinks that ether the Russians or Iran would not turn Assad into a dead man if
they knew they would not lose influence in Syria .. then you are wasting your
time reading about the region.
If anyone has and still realizes this issue, it's Assad!
If he can't trust the guy who cleans his floors day to day,
then how in the world does he trust Tehran or Moscow ?
Paranoia has been his middle name for well over a year now
and it just gets worse day by day.
So, let's assume for a minute Assad decides that regardless
of what Tehran or Moscow
wants he gives the orders to turn up the heat on Lebanon ; thus further terrifying
the whole region.
Again; does this mean he places his own survival ahead of
his support from Hezbollah?
It's just hard to accept!
Ok, let's take the other track.
Lets assume Hezbollah and Tehran are involved and dreamt up the whole
plot.
Why?
Back to one of my other theories.
Perhaps the threat of social unrest based upon the sanctions
has the Iranian leadership so desperate and paranoid they are willing to create
the "distraction event" many have feared?
Again, I have a hard time with this logic line.
Hezbollah fighting for its life in Lebanon is a Hezbollah that is in no position to
conduct operations against Israel
in a proxy war set by Iran .
Notice how quickly Hezbollah "condemned" the
attack?
Ok.
Back to the primary issue.
Who killed al-Hassen and why?
It's clear there is an argument from both camps.
What's not clear is the repercussions of this murder.
Just because someone or some government anticipated the act
as beneficial, that by no means guarantees positive results.
A region living on the edge day by day, is simply not
predictable.
Containment of the event is job one for all in the Middle East and the UN.
The call for the current government of Lebanon to step
down will probably get louder.
If that government does fall, one supported by Hezbollah,
then Lebanon
could turn into a Syrian replica... .something that is probably already
happening.
Again, this is an event where the region teeters for the
next several days.
Will the situation calm down to some acceptable level or
will Lebanon
cook off?
Can someone find a way to blame Israel ? I bet they already have.
I don't have the answer just yet, but If Iran was not at the
center of this attack, Tehran
is in full scale panic mode.
A lost Hezbollah is a lost Iran government.
How many more fires can the peace seeking people of the
region and the rest of the world put out?
Don't look now, but I smell smoke in Kuwait and Bahrain .. again!!!
