As predicted, the rumors of pending "outside"
actions over the Syrian conflict grew dramatically in the past two days.
Given the fact we all have far too much to digest over this
issue, lets stick to a few simple facts in the hopes these will act as guidelines
for possible actions.
FACT:
Assad's control in Syria is one disastrous event away
from failure.
International actions, even limited actions, could and
probably will push Assad to the state of collapse.
Any plans of assaulting Aleppo and securing a victory over the rebels
would be all but lost.
Simply put, Assaad's grip cannot withstand even a
"limited" response and that limited response would most likely tip
the scales!
FACT:
Assad's handlers have shown they will go to great lengths to
keep him in power.
Remember, there is no way he came up with the Chemical
attack scenario of a few days ago without permission and support.
The Persians and the Tsar would never interpret a
"limited" strike response as anything other than the initial stages
of "Regime Change"... something the West has a history of in that
region.
Simply put; no one on the opposing team is going to see
"limited" as "limited"!
FACT:
Assad has been in a position of non-control for well over a
year now.
His Masters run the show in Syria and all of those around him
know it.
If the chemical attack was not his idea, and he is not given
a vote on how to deal with the fallout, then how paranoid must he be right now?
What is he capable of with or without his Master's consent?
Just asked Jordan ,
Turkey , Israel .......
Simply put; Assad as the real leader of Syria has reached
the point that not only can he not retain control of his country, but those who
plotted to use chemical weapons against the people of Syria could easily let
him hang for the event and settle with Syria's version of Lebanon in the 80s.
FACT:
The "Revenge Factor" is going to come into play
and soon!
Just listen to the words of Abu Mohammad al-Golani!
As I said two days ago, the Sunni response will come and it
may come outside of Syria .
Simply put; If I was a family member of Hezbollah back in Lebanon , I would leave and I would
leave to somewhere very remote.
Simply put; Lebanon
is now totally engulfed in the Syrian conflict and any "limited"
response by the enemies of Assad will most likely involve Lebanon and
perhaps others near by paying the price.
THE FINAL FACT:
The ideological mentality of believing there is some version
of " A limited Response" is
flawed beyond imagination.
Western actions, at any level, will take the entire region
to the reality of the long feared disaster.
Simply put; phones and face to face meetings must be a
blistering pace right now and the concept of "saving face" cannot be
allowed to rule the day.
The problem will be, as the rational attempt to avoid what
they all know might happen with intervention, the radicals will take their
revenge and that revenge will be responded to by the desperate to survive!
Containment...... that has to be priority one right now..... or at least I hope it is!!
