REPERCUSSIONS

With the rumors swirling today that Abbas may request UNGA recognition and not UNSC authorization, the complexity of the Palestinian statehood issue only increased.

Abbas finds himself between a rock and a hard spot.

The streets of the Middle East have already heard he is heading to the UNSC, although they did not hear it directly from him.

If you remember the beating he took over the Palestinian Papers issue I don't see how he could once again be seen as bending   to US and Israeli pressure.

Hamas would have defeated him and taken complete control of the Palestinian movement during the Palestinian Paper's event if it had not been for the launching of the Arab Spring.

So how does this issue interact with the topic of " Repercussions"?

Well, the first repercussion of the vote could be the future of Abbas.

If he fails to take the issue to the UNSC, will the Palestinian people, namely the youth, not attack him for selling out?

By having someone leak the story two days ago the issue was heading to the UNSC, did he doom himself, or did someone set him up?

In the world of Middle Eastern politics, you just never really know.

Repercussion number one:

The fate of Abbas as the leader of the Palestinian movement.

Ok, for the sake of argument, lets suppose Abbas announces on Friday, his big speech is scheduled for that day, the UNGA is the path he has chosen?

Is the initial violence worse than if he announced the UNSC pathway?

My guess is yes!!!!

He becomes a target of the  protest along with the Israelis and the US.

The odds are, if he announces the UNGA path on Friday, the protest will start that night and they might very well be violent against him, something Hamas would  look forward to.

The bad news is, Israel will see the UNGA pathway as totally unacceptable as well.

If you are getting the feeling there are no easy answers here, welcome to the world of the Middle East.

Repercussion number two:

If Abbas takes option of announcing the UNSC pathway, the initial protest will not center around him and his cabinet.

That in itself might push him towards the UNSC choice.

Self Survival is a strong instinct and Abbas would not be where he is if he didn't understand the concept.

 What is potentially good for Abbas is catastrophic for the Palestinian people, although many of them simply do not realize it yet.

If the US veto vote is cast, the violence in the Middle East and other parts of the world to include London, Europe and even places like New York could be could reach levels not seen in years.

The anger of the US Congress could easily and most likely turn into a cancellation of funding for the Palestinian Authority.

I would think some other "stop gap" plan is ready, such as Saudi filling the financial void.

The problem for the US will be a double negative, one the Veto vote and two the interruption of funding.

How bad this will disrupt US foreign policy in the region is simply too hard to tell, but it may go beyond what most anticipate.

Embassy operations may become a real concern and I would bet contingency plans are already underway.

As one  US Department of State Official put today, the event could be a complete " Train Wreck".

Clearly both options are bad, but the UNSC veto issue is extremely damaging for the US and the support to the PA cause may simply evaporate.

Ok, tomorrow I will talk about who benefits from the pending " Train Wreck".

Hint; there are more on the list than you think.