RUSSIAN PULLOUT. “OBJECTIVE ACHIEVED” OR HAS SOMETHING CHANGED?

It is a given that the Tsar is a methodical planner and hates to deviate once he has his mind set on an objective.  “Largely …Objective Achieved”? His words! Really? Is that what took place? Did his plan call for pushing the anti-Assad forces to the negotiating table? I’m not a betting man, but something tells me I wouldn’t put money on that theory!

If we don’t buy the story of “Largely Achieved”, then what are we to think? What changed?

Let’s look at this whole scenario from another angle. Did something happen that made the Tsar change his plans and if so, what? 

Was the moment of confrontation with Turkey reaching the point that it might actually take place? Did the bombing yesterday in the Turkish capital push them over the edge? 

Did the phone ring in Moscow with someone saying, “I think the Turks have had enough. They are going to move on the Kurds and they are willing to confront you over it”?  The Turks have openly commented time and time again about the Russian support to the Kurdish fighters and the drive to secure some version of Kurdistan along the Turkish border.  Was this latest attack in Ankara the game changer for the Tsar? Has he ever really been willing to risk open confrontation with a NATO member? His reaction to his lost fighter jet and pilot could have given us part of that answer. Bottom line: Did Turkey just make the Tsar change his plan? Again, my hunch is has weighted heavily on his mind from the very beginning.

What about the downing of the Syrian fighter two days ago? Did that have an impact? 

Did the phone ring in Moscow only to have someone say, “The ability to down advanced aircraft are now in the hands of the Rebels”.  Did the victories of the Assad government lead to the GCC supplying the Rebels with the ability to attack the one force they had no answer to?  How would the Tsar react to one of his invincible fighters being shot down not just by a NATO partner, but by a ragtag bunch of Rebels? How would the Russian people react to a second embarrassment? Could the Tsar risk being seen as a Paper Tiger? Would this lead to him having to accuse the very nations he needs to make peace with…..the oil producers of the region….the future partners of a Russian supported version of OPEC? 

Here is another thought to contemplate. Almost five years ago now, I commented on this blog site that Assad would only last as long as the Tsar wanted him to. In the end, not even the Persians would hold Assad’s fate. Did the Tsar just determine his support for Assad is over?  Was a “deal” finally struck with the GCC/ Saudi? The Russian entrance into Syria was never about saving the Tsar’s friend Assad…he could care less about the Eye Doctor.  It’s been about Russia and the Tsar’s grand plan from day one.  He is a far cry from being a fool perhaps the risk assessment of continuing on was, in his opinion, getting beyond acceptable limits.

So, drawing a firm conclusion as to why he made this announcement is just too difficult, at least at this moment in time. We do know the man who prides himself on image, such as his bear hunting or horseback riding with no shirt on, has to be contemplating just how this announcement will play in the eyes of the rest of the world.  He can’t afford to be seen as cutting and running. He can’t afford to make it look like the Mad Ottoman called his bluff.  He can’t afford the last tank going over the bridge scene to replay itself again……it can’t be an Afghanistan moment.  

We will have to watch over the course of the next few days or maybe even a week to see if this was a planned event or a reaction to some new circumstance. 

In reality, what is even more intriguing to me, is the second order effects that will take place because of this announcement.

Where do we go from here?