BIG PICTURE ISSUES THAT PAINT A DANGEROUS SEPTEMBER AND FALL
Let’s take a look at three big picture issues that could very well set the course for the Middle East soon.
I think the talk of Turkish physical interdiction in Syria
Two months ago the rumor of Turkey opening a “ Safe Zone” inside of Syria
It is very possible the Turkish Military was told to draft a contingency plan for such an event given that is what militaries do…. Plan for actions..
Last week an arguably weak “rumor” was making its rounds based on the possibility the Turkish Military Senior Commanders had stepped down over the issue of possible intervention in Syria
I watched this story fall apart quickly, but not soon enough that some didn’t pick up on it.
Most “Rumors” have some small percentage of fact and in this case that small percentage could have been the planning process Turkey
The truth of the matter is the Turkish Military leadership’s actions were based on a long standing conflict with the current government of Turkey
Now for the Syrian side:
The open conflict witnessed all last week, even as Ramadan began, is a huge indication of just how desperate Assad has become.
Here is the million dollar question!
Has he become so desperate that he would contemplate actual hostile actions with another Nation State?
I have talked about this theory in the past, but the chances of it coming to reality became a great deal more disturbing with the following two articles’ release.
At the sake of keeping this post simple, let me try to argue why Turkey
If you have been following what I have been saying, you will remember my belief in the potential struggle for control of the Middle East …. The Ottoman Empire Vs the Persian Empire .
It did not go unnoticed by Turkey how quickly the world reacted to the weak response by the UN on Syria
In the spirit of building the Ottoman Empire, Turkey
For now, strong actions can be seen as sending a senior Turkish Official to call on Assad with the press release that the message this person delivers will be a stern warning.
It’s the type of posturing Turkey
To say or do nothing, especially during Ramadan, would send a message to any potential follower, Egypt ect… that Turkey
Back in April I commented about the danger of becoming a “Leader”.
Well, Turkey
Now back to my question stated above.
Will Assad risk conflict?
Lets turn this question around?
Why would he not risk conflict?
His supporters may leave him?
If Turkish troops set foot on Syrian land, no supported of Assad will leave him for it will not be about Assad, but it will be all about Syria
If the warning by Turkey is truly as upfront as Turkey
As soon as he does, you can look for a statement from Iran
Now, does that mean Iran will risk a regional war for Syria
Go back to the same question asked about Assad?
At the point of Turkish troops setting foot on Syrian land, what choise does Iran
The question of who will win the day in the Middle East .. The Ottoman Empire or the Persian Empire will have been answered.
Yes; the danger here is tremendous and what is even more dangerous is the “group think” that an event like this can not or will not happen.
Saudi:
Paranoia continues to run deep in the royal family of Saudi Arabia
Putting out a weak story about “amendments” to a law that basically says, “ if you take to the streets…. You are guilty of conspiring against the King” is a desperate attempt to soften the blow to public perception.
The story even hints the amendments may not get passed the “hardliners” in the Saudi leadership.
Bottom line; Saudi is getting ready for an event that keeps them up at night and gives them nightmares..
Seeing Mubarak in a cage must have sent chills down the spines of the Royal Family.
If Turkey and Syria have not blown the lid off the Middle East by September, than Israel
For months it has been obvious the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / will end up in Israel
How it gets started has several options, but how it ends is practically set in stone.
Violence will be the theme of September and Iran
The question becomes does Israel
My bet is they do…
How do they do that?
Push Syria or Iran
Why would Israel
Go back to the same question at the beginning of this post; the one asked of Assad and the one asked of Iran
If Israel is in flames and riots rule the day as in Syria , what does Israel
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think I have already said thatJ … this story is a classic “ I told you so”.
Imagine the concept of Left leaning, social liberal and their college professors deciding to pull away from the MB?
I’m shocked!!!!
I called them ideological fools the day I saw them standing next to the MB and I think they have now seen the light all be it a little too late.
It’s like Sheep standing up to Herder .. shoulder to shoulder with the WOLF!!!!
Fools!!
