ONCE AGAIN THE TOPIC OF LEBANON, SYRIA AND IRAN!!

Over the past ten months, I have commented on the complex relationship between the events in Syria and the future impact on Lebanon.

The attached article is a fair assessment of what Lebanon means not only to Syria, but to the region as well.

To reiterate what my theory on what Lebanon means to Syria, we must once again look at Iran.

As I have said over and over and over... Iran cannot continue on it's current path without the leverage of Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and what faction of Hamas that is not returning to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Having said that, with each passing day, things change to include the attitudes of Nation States such as Russia and China.

The importance of Syria to Russia is not the same as the importance of Syria to Iran.

The same holds true for China and in China's case, it's far easier to see a future where China turns on Syria for the sake of future oil contracts from the region.

So, what does that have to do with current events in Lebanon?

Again, I will make the point of Iran's needs!!!!

Iran needs the ability to launch a proxy conflict with Israel prior to trying to adsorb an attack from Israel.

If Iran needs Lebanon to become yet another battleground, then my theory is it will happen!

If Iran needs to hold onto Syria at all cost, and they do, then making Lebanon a battlefield is again the option.

Ok, now everyone in Lebanon knows this and the tension can only be getting worse by the day.

Picking sides in Lebanon was an issue long before the events in Syria began to boil and old memories of Syrian occupation still run deep.

I use to love to ask the Saudi's, " what is the name of the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon"?

If you read through my post, you will see this is not the first time I have had this conversation about events in Lebanon, but it's worth repeating because each day is a new day and each new day could be the day the conflict switches to Lebanon.

My theory remains, if Iran feels Israel is about to take action, it will launch the Lebanon, Gaza option and force Israel to execute a three front war.

How they might pull this off is a important topic and one I will dive into the next time I post.

My theory is I better do so quick or it might be a historical posting and not a prediction.

 http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2012/1089/re5.htm