IRAN AND THEIR DIMINISHING LIST OF “FRIENDS”
Okay, right out of the gate, I admit the concept of
“Friends” in today’s world of international affairs is about as lose of a
concept as a Hooker telling you, “ You number one Joe”! Hookers and
International Affairs? Hmm…… there is a coalition there! Seriously, today I’m
going to take a shot at what appears to be the latest flair up between the Persians
and the Ottomans.
If you go back and read my post from 2011/12/ you will find
multiple discussions on the three way conflict in the Middle Eastern Region of
the world. All three factions pushing for the same goal, the goal many other
nations often pursue! Dominance! The Ottomans, The Persians and to some extent
the Arabs all believe they should be the dominant force in the region. They all
believe their history supports this drive. Not a story that is unique to that
part of the world, but the ramifications of these desires, stacked on top of
the social climate of the 21st Century makes this ongoing story a
very dangerous one.
OTHERS:
So, the concept the Persians, Ottomans and the Arabs are all
jockeying for the same seat is a serious one, but then you have to add the fact
that “others” have desires for the region as well. To the Tsar, the Middle East is tool to set
the course he desires in Europe. It’s a region that impacts his primary, at
least for now, way of making money…………fuel! What dreams or ambitions the
Ottomans or the Persians or the Arabs have is little more than noise to the
Tsar. To the Europeans the region is what it has always been to them, the place
where people come from that can overrun Europe. Today’s so called Mass
Migration event is just the 21st Century versions of a reoccurring
nightmare. The “Unwanted” showing up in Europe! As for the Dragon, the region
is nothing more than an opportunity, but an opportunity that must carefully be
weighed with patients the Dragon is very….very… patient. To the US, the region
is an emotional roller-coaster. In the
30 years, the US has fought countless battles in the region with the loss of
lives and treasure still looked upon by many as an unjust and unnecessary cost.
Walking away, is not an option and doing more is very….very…unpopular at home.
SIDES:
Time and time again, I’ve addressed the issue of, “who is on
whose side and are they really”? The Turks are fighting in Syria. The Iranians
are fighting in Syria. The Russians are fighting in Syria. The Kurds are
fighting in Syria. Numerous “others” are supporting all sides of the fighting
in Syria! Is there any real concept of who is working together? I will tell you
this, Syria is going to go down in the history books as one of the most confusing,
illogical conflicts in human history. Yes, the world has seen other conflicts
where the players and scorecards don’t make sense, but again, you have to
factor in the coverage of the Syrian event. The world never had social media
before. The awareness of the insanity of “sides” has never been so exposed
almost on an hourly basses.
The Turks are fighting in one area against a group the
Russians oppose. The Turks are fighting to take land from a government the
Russians support. The Turks are fighting in one area against groups the West
supports. The Turks are fighting in other areas against groups the West doesn’t
not support. The Iranians are fighting groups the Turks support. The GCC
supports groups that oppose the government of Syria. The Turks are fighting the
groups the GCC supports? I could go on and on, but the message is clear. Syria
is far more than a nation that has slipped into Civil War. Syria, as I have
said before, is now part of a much larger struggle and for that reason, finding
a way out of the conflict is nearly impossible.
IRAN AND TURKEY:
So what is this latest war of words between the Persians and
the Ottomans about this time? Did something change? This is not the first time
they have tossed insults at each other. Well, something has changed. The
Iranians have changed and are changing! A few weeks back, I spent a few days
talking about the added pressures being placed on Iran. Times have changed. The
US Presidency changed and the course of the Persian vison has been impacted.
The Tsar and The Donald are resetting, at least many think they are, the
regional map. The Iranians are what they always feared they were; pawns! Things
are simply not getting any better for the Persians and even internally, the
rumors of the next election cycle are beginning to cause additional pressure. Lashing
out at someone, someone other than the typical US / Israeli punching bags,
seems to be the latest attempt by Tehran to show the world they are relevant. Like The Donald, Egodan is not one to take
insults quietly. Slapping back is a trait of his and this time around was no
exception.
Frustration. That could be the key to what is taking place
this time around. The Persians are simply growing more and more frustrated with
how their vision is falling apart. Tehran doesn’t dare speak poorly of the Tsar
and lashing out at the US or Israel is simply old news that scores very few
points at home. The Persian vision of being the predominant nation serving
under the Islamic flag is faltering. Tehran’s belief that all things Islamic
will be based out of Tehran is never going to come true. Old men’s dreams are
going to die with them and they are beginning to understand that. The problem
is, that doesn’t mean they are not angry and even worse, desperate!
MATH:
Here is the number one problem for the Persians and it’s
been the number one problem from day one of their old men’s dreams. Math. Do
the math! The overwhelming majority of the Islamic faith is Sunni! The Persians
represent the minority and the majority is not sympathetic to the minority
dream.
From day one, the plan was to overcome this math with
superior capabilities. If you can kill your advisory in vastly superior numbers,
you can win the day! Okay, someone once again tell me why they believe the
Iranian old men don’t want nuclear weapons? If you can be the hero of your
religion by taking back your religions holy sites, then why would the rest of
your religion not follow you, even when you are the minority? Do superior weapons
make the minority, the majority? Oh, by the way, in case you forgot; the
Ottomans are predominately Sunni!
DESPERATE:
The Persians are
growing more and more desperate. The list of friends is shrinking as the
boldness of its enemies is growing. Internally, the natives are close to being
restless again and 2009 is still in the minds of the old men in Tehran. The
Ottomans and the Tsar and now it appears The Donald are making plans to push
Iran out of Syria. That is a disaster for the Persians! If that was not enough,
the real danger, the Sunni / Shia conflict shows signs of even getting
worse. An Arab NATO? Yep, I’ve talked
about this one before to, but that can only send one message to Iran. Who will
make up the Shia NATO? The Pakistanis? Nope! The Iraqis? Please! Where do the
Persians turn? How long do they wait? How much worse can it get?
There is an old saying in the art of warfare. “It’s now or
never”! Let’s pray the old men in Tehran don’t see it this way.
Side Note:
I just finished reading a RAND Corporation study on the impact
of a US / China / conflict. Can’t site the document because RAND doesn’t like
that, but it’s on the web…… like everything else in the world. I’m not sold they hit the true “Human”
factors in that report, but I may take a shot of doing something along the same
lines on the topic of Iran. We shall see.
A few really good articles
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