LEBANON, IRAQ, SYRIA, AND NOW, THE HOMELAND.

JUST HOW BAD ARE THINGS GETTING FOR THE MULLAHS? 

Back to the topic of the Middle East. Back to the issue of Tehran and the Mullahs. Back to the events that could bring on yet another crisis in the region. Have I addressed the subject of the old men in Tehran trying to hold on to power? Would you believe perhaps two dozen times or more? Go back and search my this blog site from the past 8 yrs and look at how many times this topic has been covered. Besides sounding like Chicken Little over the past several years, are there any true indications the Mullah's days are numbered?  How many times have I opened this conversation? Anyway, let me make my point again!  

Best delivery is a simple one: 

Here it comes. Here comes one of my favorite ways to defend my theories. "KISS," Keep It Simple Stupid! Believe me, it's a process that has worked well for a guy like me:). Here we go. Here is the down and dirty, KISS, explanation as to why the Mullahs are really in trouble this time; no really, they are in trouble. 

1. Lebanon: 

     A. Protest by the youth and the Middle Class. Bad....bad for the Mullahs!

     B. Shia youth and Middle Class no longer want to follow or, more accurately, tolerate Hezbollah.              Bad....bad for Hezbollah. 

     C. Lebanese Banks. If the government has run out of money for Hezbollah to steal, then what? 

     D. Lebanese Amry Chief disappears and then reappears? Rumor. Hezbollah locked him up to                     warn him against letting the Lebanese military, a military the US supports, prevent Hezbollah            from cracking down on the protest. 

Conclusion: The Mullah's fear of losing control of Lebanon grows by the day, and it's a fear that, in their minds, is generated by the US and "others." 

2. Iraq: 

     A. The protest is more violent, at least from the perspective of the Mullah controlled forces in                  Iraq. 

     B. The fear of losing control of Iraq is even higher than the fear of losing Lebanon. Borders. It's              all about borders and proximity. 

     C. Shia vs. Sunni issues, issues that never went away, bring the fuel to the fire. By the way, don't              think for a minute a whole lot of people in Iraq don't see the " Persian, Arab" twist to this                    issue.    

Conclusion:   As if the events in Lebanon weren't enough to worry about, those darn Americans and "others" are pushing in Iraq as well. 

3. Syria: 

     A. Who is calling the shots for the future of Syria? Tehran? Nope! Does that infuriate the old                     men in Tehran? You have no idea. 

     B.  The Turks. Are they "working" with Tehran to shape Syria's future? The Sultan is a supporter               of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Sultan is Sunni. The Sultan sees himself as the ruler of the                 new Ottoman Empire. The Sultan sees himself and his Empire as the future leaders of the                     Muslim world. Does any of this fit the wishes or dreams of the Mullahs? Does Turkey care                  what vision Tehran has for Syria? Of course not. 

     C. The Kurds. Good grief. Of all the things the old men in Tehran don't want to add to the list of              worries, it's the Kurds. Can the Mullahs manipulate the Kurds? How could they when they                  have so many competitors offering the Kurds such great deals? 

Conclusion:  When it comes to Syria, about the only thing the Mullahs have going for them is the fact the people of Syria aren't burning the place down over the actions of Tehran...... not yet!!

4. Iran: 

     A. If ever there was an example of, "last but not least," it would be right here. 

     B. Protest, violent protest, the most violent in years. Day four, and that is what I have always said, was the "Witching Hour" of protest; 96 hours! 

     C. As rumors go, this one is a BIG ONE! Rumor. IRGC commanders, two, were killed by their                 troops for being ordered to use snipers on civilians. Is there a factual base for this rumor?                     Remember, it today's world, it doesn't matter. Social Media shapes reality through perception.             Who did this rumor impact the most? You bet............ the Mullahs. If it's not true, who started                this rumor? Who helped the people that started this rumor? You know the answer from                        Tehran. "The" United States.......that's who.................oh                                                                          ya..................and......................"others." 

The Bogeyman: 

The Bogeyman. Not a cultural icon in other parts of the world, but the concept is one that applies to this conversation. From the Mullah's perspective, who is responsible for all these nightmares coming together at one time? Yep. "The" Donald Trump! Now, I am here to tell you, if, at the end of the day, the old men in Tehran decide to take the money and run, you can bet every expert in DC and just about everywhere else in the world, will jump up and tell you how it happened. Conversely; if the Mullahs decide to go down in a ball of fire, if they choose to take the region into a real war, you can bet the MSM and all the " I HATE TRUMP" folks will put the blame on his shoulders as soon as the first round is fired. 

Here is the reality of this whole conversation; it's decision time for Tehran. Kill too many protestors, and the world comes down on them like they've not seen before. Not even Moscow or the Sultan will stick up for them if they start to kill in mass numbers in three different countries simultaneously. 

Kill too many in their own country, and the mullahs may very well find their own military fractionating beyond control. Look at Syria in 2011. Yep folks. The old men in Tehran are in the worst position in over forty years. Why? "The Donald," that's why! Will he get any credit? Are you kidding me? The mullahs are in a real, real bad way, and they have two options. 

1. " Take the money and Run." Great song and something I will guarantee you the old men are thinking about.   

2. Ever hear of Edwin Starr? How about his song, "War---what is it good for"? It's the classic escape valve for governments in trouble. Start a war, and thus, create a huge distraction that might just prevent government downfall. What option is Tehran going to take? By the way, the theory of "just let it burn itself out," doesn't apply here. Sorry, Tehran. This set of crisis is not going away, even if the Coup against Trump succeeds. The ultimate reality is this. If rumors of discontent in the IRGC are correct, then the war option is going to be very difficult to sell. I've said this before. What is a leader without troops who will follow, and that applies to both the Mullahs and the IRGC generals? My advise. Listen to the Steve Miller Band!