PAKISTAN AND INDIA…..INDIA AND CHINA…. AND NONE OF THEM ARE GOING TO CALL DC.

Yesterday, I alluded to a few events that are looming on the horizon and will have little impact by ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Yes, when crisis’s of the magnitude mentioned here come about, all major world leaders are involved, but just how much influence can be exhibited, that becomes the question. Here is a simpler way of making this point.

To what level has the Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump camp looked at the tension between the Dragon and India? What has been reviewed  on the topic of India and Pakistan? Are these two topics off the political radar? Yes.

Is that a mistake?

Well, how many voters in the US are going to be influenced by ether candidate addressing such issues? Yep….none! Is it any wonder the two topics are “off the radar”? 

Okay, so what is the point here? Why even bring this up?

Simple, both of these topics show just how little influence the next US President will have on preventing these issues from becoming global events? As a reminder, the US was not involved in the beginning of the First World War and it wasn’t involved in the beginning of the Second World War. Yes, I admit, the actions of the US before both wars helped set the stage for both of them, but the US was not the only nation that made mistakes leading to these wars.  Will it be “involved” in the beginning of the next world war? History does have a way of repeating itself.

Let’s be honest for a minute. Just how much impact does the typical US voter believe the next President should have on the tensions between these three nations? What are the expectations of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump when it comes to external tensions, tensions that are not aimed at the US?

Well, let me explain how the informative phase works. Soon after the elections are over, a series of events begins to take place designed to get the incoming President up to speed on matters that are or might impact the US. This is a complex process and unfortunately, it doesn’t always execute at the level the typical US citizen would expect. Opinions, new staff members and advisors all contribute to making the process far more ineffective than it should be. Inbound “Opinions” are often the most dangerous part of the concept.

At some point in time, ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will receive a series of very classified briefings with details only one of them will be accustomed to. Now, before you think of that as a plug for Hillary Clinton, let me stop you right there. I spent a great deal of my career working inside the world that Hillary Clinton chose to abuse. My opinion of what she did is too unprofessional for me to spell it out in this post.  Somewhere in those briefings will be the topic of these three nations and the tensions between them. How much attention will be given to that information is dependent upon what the severity of the information is. Odds are, the relationships between three nations in question will not lead to any true policy development, at least not in these initial briefings. So, at the end of the day, the topic may come up, but the level of concern will probably just not be there.

It’s February of 2017, President Trump is contacting all the concrete companies that are willing to start the Great Wall of America. If not, then President Clinton is reading the riot act to the First Husband on what she will do to him if he has yet another episode with women. In the morning briefing, the President is briefed that the situation between the Chinese and India is getting worse. It seems the Indian government has agreed to joint naval exercises with Japan and Taiwan. Intelligence indicates the Dragon believes the US is helping instigate India’s involvement in the region. Pressure is increasing rapidly and the situation has gone from, something that you told me right after the election to, “Mr. President, this is a lead issue this morning”! “What are our options? What should we do”?

This is the world that ether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will inherit. Events are going to take place that are completely off the Radar in September of 2016. 

There will be events that are  unprepared for and not predicted. 

Influence and the reduced capability to use influence as a tool prior to open conflict. That is the price the US is paying and will continue to pay for the death of American Exceptionalism.

Should the US be the world Police Force? No.

If statecraft is conducted correctly, “World Police Force” concepts are not necessary.

So, why did I chose China, India and Pakistan?

China understands the power of littoral shipping lanes. The US understands the importance of them to the survival of the Western economy. India? Well, India understands all too well their economic future is directly tied to these lanes.

As for Pakistan, history will write a chapter in the future school books on the topic of Little Countries obtaining a great power. A power they were too unstable to own. The next chapter about a “flash” in the middle of the day or night, may not involve a Dragon, a Bear, an Eagle or Even a Tiger. It may start with a morning briefing for a new US President.