PUTIN AND ARAMCO? A “TECTONIC SHIFT” AND BETRAYAL IN THE WORKS.
I fully
intended on addressing the critical meeting that is taking place between the US
and Turkey today. As important as that meeting may be, shy of actual open
conflict breaking out between the US and Turkey, I came upon a topic that is far
more important.
If Mr. Bhadrakumar is correct, and believe me, this is a
topic the US intelligence world keeps a very close eye on, and a “deal” is
about to be made between the Russians, partnered with the Chinese, and Saudi
Arabia / Aramco, then the he is correct. Tectonic. That is exactly what this “deal”
will be. For the Russian / Chinese partnership to actually buy their way into
the largest oil and gas firm in the world, for the Russians to pull this alliance
away from the US / West, yes…….. that is Tectonic! Mr. Bhadrakumar covers the
potential ramifications of this potential partnership, so I will not spend time
addressing the business side of this issue. Although the issue of future military hardware
operations is covered in this piece, the dangers to Saudi on that topic will be
important to the kingdom. I’ll come back to that point, but first, let me
address the area not covered in this article. It’s the question that typically
leads any intelligence briefing on a topic this important.
Why?
Why would
the Russians love to have such a deal? Does it allow them to have a nose under
the Aramco tent? Yes. Just think of the access to data, life span of reserves as
just one example. How about access to manipulation of processes inside the corporation
such as the physical movement of oil and gas. These are just minor examples. The
actual “why” is far more strategic. What is the lifeblood of the Russian economy?
Fuel, oil, gas! What is the commodity the Chinese are in an every increasing
quest for? Fuel. The primary controller of world fuel. If that is not a goal of
the Tsar, then I’ve missed my mark on him for years now. So, the “why” seems to
be very clear. It’s about power. It’s about control and influence. With the “why”
out of the way, let’s move onto the next question. Will it happen? Will the Russians
and the Chinese actually get their hand on a percentage of a 2 TRILLION Dollar
business?
The Catch:
Is there
a “catch”? You bet there is; there always is! Let’s see. The Russians are the
largest backers of the Iranians. The Iranians are currently, I stress currently,
a mortal enemy of the Saudi Kingdom. So, the Russians show up with Chinese
money and state they would like to buy part of the largest corporation in the
world. I wonder what the conditions of even considering such an offer might be?
Does anyone really think that Saudi Arabia, the future King, would trade 100
Billion dollars’ worth of their prize corporation to a nation that supports Saudi’s
enemy? Don’t you have to wonder how the
Tsar pitched that concept? The story goes, a phone call took place between
Putin and the King, the young one I bet. How in the world did Putin put this
bid in perspective that even gives them a chance to succeed? If you said, he
placed the Iranian card on the table, then you get credit for knowing the leader
of Russia better than most. Yes. Absolutely! I would bet that is exactly what
the Tsar did, only I have a twist that you need to contemplate.
Regime Change:
Would the
Russians walk away from all of it’s investments in Iran for the sake of a small
percentage of Aramco? No. Would the Russians arrange or let’s say facilitate a
change in Iran that would be more acceptable to Saudi? Oh yes……..BINGO! Amongst
the “friends” of Russia, who serves at the pleasure of the Tsar? All. All serve
at the pleasure of the Tsar and that includes the dying old man in Tehran. Who
is the IRGC really beholding to? Who gives them what they need? Who makes sure
they are the true power in Iran? Yep. What is behind the unrest in Iran? The
West? Well, maybe to some extent. Who has the foresight to understand the skill
craft of perpetuation tension amongst the population all the while as the Iranian
government blames the West / US? Why, who might even be clever enough to
quietly work a backdoor deal with the West / US to help facilitate unrest in
Iran? Does that sound like something a ex KGB Boss could dream up? Let me
simplify things. Putin knows the relationship with Iran is the real stumbling
block to a deal like the Aramco event. He knows he can’t just walk away from Iran,
although, if they keep interfering with Moscow’s plans in Syria, he may change his
mind. What needs to be said to the Saudis? What words may compel the Kingdom to
allow this Russian / China consortium to win the prize? “There is a change coming
in Iran. A change we are facilitating and when this change takes place, the issues
between the two of you will be solved”. Is that the kind of thing the Tsar
could say to the future King? Yep! Are the Saudi’s clever enough to inquire how
this “change” might take place and when? Absolutely. In the shadows of the
Iranian old man, hide ambitious dreamers. Some who have already been in power
and some who dream of power. More importantly, those who hold not only power,
but the admiration of many of the Iranian citizens. The old man is dying, and everyone
knows it. How will the next ruler of Iran change the course of not only Iran,
but the region? You can bet this topic has had many glasses of prime Vodka
consumed over it. Meanwhile, the Dragon smiles at it’s so called partner and
spends a few dollars…………………….. and waits!
