Before I say once again, "I'm back", I must admit,
I think it's true this time!
In the past week, I had the privilege to make a new acquaintance
with an individual that is a recognized writer and one sharp individual.
So, to my new friend Ted, I have only one request.
Please don't judge my knowledge of the Middle
East based upon my... let us say.... writing style! Be kind and look at the "big picture"...
please!
Ok, now to topic of the day, at least from my perspective.
In the past few weeks, a great deal of talk has been circulating
over the pending battle for the town of Qalamoun .
If you've been following the Syrian Civil War, then you
understand the significance of this location not just from the perspective of
supplies to the Sunni Rebels, but to the people of Lebanon in general.
Is this small little town more relivent than other past
conflicts throughout Syria ?
Yes!
Why?
Ask the people of Lebanon !
For nearly two years now, the peaceful people of Lebanon,
and that is most of the population there, have been worried over what real
event would trigger a response so important that their country would finally be
pulled into the Syrian conflict completely.
So many of the Western "talking heads" have
predicted the future of Lebanon
it's frankly hard to remember all the different "theories" as to what
will happen and when.
So again, why is this pending conflict for Qalamoun
different?
Simple; because the people of Lebanon truly believe this battle
is the breaking point.
You see, they don't weigh Qalamoun by it's singular
importance.
To the Lebanese, Qalamoun is the culmination of a process
that has been underway for almost two years.
If that doesn't worry those who are trying desperately to
keep Lebanon from the flames of Syria, than all you have to do is look at the
statements coming from Hezbollah in the past week.
Nothing is a better indicator of a pending conflict having
significant importance than one side of the conflict telling the world how
important the event will become.
Hezbollah's statements about the pending defeat of Saudi
backed forces, yes they called out the Saudis, in the coming battle is nothing
shy of drawing a "redline"..... and we all know what happens when you
draw redlines in the Middle East !
As for this calling out of the Saudis, well in my opinion,
it's not the brightest move I've seen young members of Hezbollah make.
Young men and their mouths have a tendency to be over played
in the region and we can only hope the Hezbollah Puppet masters back in Iran
will make the final decision on just how bad Qalamoun becomes.
Sidebar: With all
the talk of the big pending battle of Qalamoun, perhaps the Sunni groups should
ask Hezbollah what happened to the "great assault on Aleppo ?
Is the taking of Qalamoun the Iran plan for taking the prize.... Aleppo ?
If so, that's one poor developed plan... Just ask the
Ottomans and their supply lines.
And just how is all this talk being received in the GCC /
Saudi?
Unless you've been under a rock for the past few days, you
have read or heard the story of the Saudi's announcement of their changing
"relationship" with the US .
Things have not gone well for the GCC in the past two months
and the statement by Hezbollah that they are going to defeat Saudi supported
operations in some decisive battle, well, once again I would go back to my
comment about young Arab men and their mouths.
A few weeks ago, all the talk was about the apparent
withdraw of Hezbollah forces from the Syrian battlefield....
The intelligent talk centered around why they were moving
the units they were and what did it really indicate?
Perhaps we now know!
Perhaps the movement was nothing more than reinforcing the
"home front" because they now realized the battle was soon to come to
the Motherland... Lebanon !
Is the pending battle for Qalamoun really the next phase of
the Syrian conflict?
Here is who I think will have a vote.... the Persians... the
Tsar and the GCC / Saudi.
Here is who will not have a vote... the Western world.
If American Exceptionalism is dead and ridding in the coach section of
seating is now where the US
sits, then watching a pending crash is probably about all we can do.
Let's just hope the peaceful people of Lebanon continue
to hang on and keep their country from sliding into the Abyss.
