In 1853, England ,
France and the Ottoman Empire wanted no part of a large scale war.
On the other hand, Russia
did; and with that........Europe went to war.
It couldn't happen again right?
I mean, it's the 21st century and everyone knows a regional
conflict is bad for the economy and simply beyond the civilized beliefs of all
the people in the region!
It simply can't happen.....right?
So, what does happen when one side decides they are willing
to fight and the other side or sides just really doesn't want to?
Well, historically two things happen.
First, the side or sides that don't want to fight give
ground on just about every issue that is placed on the table; usually one at a
time, systematically with each "negotiated" topic a "sign"
the conflict is going to be avoided.
Mr. Chamberlain comes to mind.
Yes, I am on record with my opinion that the Tsar doesn't
want a regional war over the issue of the Ukraine , but what he wants and what
he doesn't want can get lost in the emotions of the moment or overcome by "events".
What of an event such as a Ukrainian unit firing on a
Russian detachment with losses on both sides?
What's the "plan" to keep that "event"
from escalating?
What is the plan if after such an event; the Russian units
crush the Ukrainian unit / units responsible for the "event"?
You see, the historical patterns of conflict have never
really deviated from the simple truth that when one side commits to conflict
the other side / sides / really have no choice!
In 1853 the British wanted no part of a total war with Russia and thus they opted for a limited
conflict confined to the Red Sea and mostly Crimea .
It was a conflict that was to be "limited" in it's
impact of Europe and by the time it was over , the stage was set for WWI and
thus leading to the complete imbalance of the entire Middle East / Ottoman
Empire!
The Crimean war of 1854 gave us more than the Charge of the
Light Brigade and a modern modeling of military logistics.
The Crimean war gave the world an unbalanced Europe and cultural
fragmentations that were compounded by the First World War to the point we sit
were we are today with a Middle East designed
by military Engineers.
As stated last night the Tsar only thinks he knows the
outcome of the events taking place in the Ukraine .
He ether is confident of his Mater Plan or he doesn't care
what ramifications may come.
His words on Tuesday were spoken not just to his "Comrades"
in Moscow .
His "intent" may finally be coming to the surface.
Ignore those you don't respect and no longer fear.
Push Russia
to the forefront and if the price is a "limited conflict" then so be
it.
Remember... the British wish 1854 to be nothing more than a "limited
conflict".
One side... willing if not wishing to fight and the other...
floundering with even the concept of conflict.
I'm not sure how many Billionaires the West can "sanction"
but my guess is the next real threat will have to have more than sanctions
attached.
