THE BATTLE FOR TIKRIT… HOW WILL IT TURN OUT?

All the talk is centered around the so called “battle for Tikrit” and what the outcome may mean.

Let me put this as simply as I can.

What it means for Maliki is everything.

What it “means” for the ISIS groups is not as important as some would think.

If the ISIS groups lose control of Tikrit, does that mean the tide of their assault has been turned?

No.

Does holding Tikrit determine the future of the ISIS operation?

No.

What little reputation Maliki has left is lost if Tikrit is made into a measure of his capabilities.

As a matter of fact, making the attack on Tikrit into a major issue was a very bad idea.

What is the ratio for defenders to aggressors?

What are the odds of standoff weapons being able to win back door to door fighting parts of the city?

What is left of Tikrit if this campaign takes more than a month with areal bombings and indirect fire events taking place day after day?

As I’ve said before, look at Aleppo for the answer to that question.

What are the repercussions of a failed battle to retake Tikrit?

Ask that question of the Shia still in Baghdad!

I can assure you, the intentions of the ISIS groups are simple.

Hold Tikrit and make Maliki destroy it with his own military as the dead civilians are counted on social media.

Holding Tikrit as Maliki destroys it; that is the plan.

By the end of today, the stories were already spreading of the Iraqi military being unable to enter the city itself.

Attacking Tikrit it what appears a very weak operation is nothing short of a disaster for Maliki and anyone that supports him understands that.

Does anyone wonder why the Russians suddenly talked about being unwilling to sit and watch Maliki’s government fall?

Does anyone underestimate the fact Maliki is now in the same shoes as the Eye Doctor in Syria?

Both are leaders who hold no value to the Persians or the Tsar.

What is of value is the land that is now under pressure from a force both fear; the force of Sunni Radicals who have no intent of negotiating with anyone at any time in the future.

Last but not least.

Was the attack on Tikrit and attempt to pull the forces back as the gathered to lay siege on Baghdad?

Yes!

Was this Maliki’s idea?

No.

Did he go along with it?

Well, .like the Eye Doctor in Syria, he has little choice.

The Puppet of Baghdad no longer influences   the future of Iraq.