2012 / 2012 MIDDLE EAST WRAP UP: PREDICTIONS

For the past several days I have reviewed what I believe will continue to be the major issues for the Middle East.

These "issues" are complex and have very little chance of finding a political, "fix"

As I stated last week, the major problem confronting the region in 2013 will be based upon conflicting interest by several outside nation states.

It has become more than obvious the Tsar  has determined international "issues" will have Russian input to the fullest extent possible.

The days of the " Old Soviet Union" rebuilding never took place.

What emerged was the new Nationalistic Russia with a hardcore, aggressive leader!

Now, this new Russia is based on worldwide demand for fuels and that makes the Middle East and the region around it nearly the Center of Gravity for Russia.

Now, the leaders of the Middle have long understood the value of their lands to the rest of the world, but two major changes have taken place and these changes are making it virtually impossible for regional leaders to keep the world as they use to have it.

The first major change is the reality of the world become far more efficient at finding fuel in areas other than the Middle East.

The simple fact that oil empires of the Middle East for the first time have competitors throughout the world not just in one or two additional locations has brought the concept of competition to the doorsteps of the GCC.

Having the world, "kiss the ring", has been a mindset with many of these leaders for decades.

Now, I realize the counterargument is always been and will remain world only cares about the oil and not the people in the region and not sure I can argue this point.

 You see the concept of nations that conduct themselves according to what is good or important for other nations and societies are very seldom world leaders.

At the risk of being politically incorrect, it is appropriate to admit that a  nation's primary interest must always be the protection and the betterment of themselves.

Having said that, enduring relationship in the Middle East between the rest of the world and those that suddenly discovered there were sitting on some of the largest fuel deposits are found has been precarious at best.

Now, with the introduction of what I consider the second issue, it becomes clear to see what our true problem is.

Instantaneous, virtually uncontrollable, communications down to the lowest/poorest/level of society; that is the second issue that has overwhelmed the Middle East.

Ruthless leaders both recognized and ignored have found it nearly impossible to suppress or fool their citizens into day-to-day peaceful existence.

Extreme wealth stacked upon extremely poor governance layered with complex social imbalances both economic and religious as combined to create an environment in the Middle East that none of the current governments can manage.

It is also become very apparent to the rest of the world, those who strive from within these challenged nations to, "set things right", do not have the tools nor the experience and most importantly  the allegiance  to each other carryout this daunting task

Some not most in the region and smell true freedom after decades if not millennia of suppression.

The rush to, "freedom", and all chaos that ensued is the result of all parties involved, not just the ruthless governments suppressing them when the youthful members in the streets of the religious fanatics trying desperately to take advantage of the chaos.

I can't count how many times I've heard the comment, "a comprehensive regional plan", for the Middle East.

One typically only hears this type of talk during election or at some societal functional event with black ties and champagne glasses.

In 2013, the world does not have, "a plan", for the region known as the Middle East we can anticipate further problems on larger scale and unfortunately more disastrous results.

The, "mothership", of the region's Saudi!

As the government of Saudi tries desperately to keep the regional issues outside of its capital even at the price of conflict is Eastern territories, territories that hold most of Saudi soil, the world will struggle with ignoring her chastising or worse yet endorsing pending actions of the Saudi government.

When a government is in trouble, a government needs to recognize enemy!

The 2013 issue in the Middle East may or may not be Israel and Iran.

The 2013 issue in the Middle East will most likely be continued sectarian conflict, which is actually a proxy conflict between the GCC nations and Iran, and this conflict has all the tools all the fuels grow larger and more dangerous.

If the Israelis truly believe the Iranians are not close to functional nuclear weapon, forget about nuclear tipped missiles, then allowing the region to continue in the Arab versus Persian\Sunni\Shia\proxy fight might just will be acceptable answer.

From the perspective of the rest of us, without a unified plan will be no resolution in the region.

Unified plan is virtually impossible is old enemies once again begin to struggle over their prominence in the world.