TILLERSON’S MESSAGE. HOW DID IT GO?

Theater; that is how many would describe the post meeting environment when important, dangerous topics are being negotiated between nations. Who gets the best soundbite off first and who sets the baseline for the pending perception battle? Who won the debate yesterday? Each involved nation sends a message intended for their own citizenship and each nation sends a message for world consumption. So, what messages were sent yesterday, after the meeting in Moscow? Well, from the US standpoint, the message from the President was more than dramatic. It was ominous! The real bad news is, this ominous message was the version drafted for the US public.  ‘Maybe worse than it’s ever been’! That’s what I would call ominous. If that was the US Administration message to its own people, what was the message for the rest of the world? Here is the problem, sometimes when the message for the internal consumption is so controversial, the other messages are overlooked. In addition, in today’s world of social media, the ability of governments to send independent messages is almost ineffective or worse, counterproductive. What the world heard yesterday was, ‘ Maybe worse than ever….all time low’! Was any of it for show? Was the old CEO Donald overstating a position to strengthen future negotiations? That is how he ran his business world. Why would he run the US any different? Did the rest of the world believe the statement? I know the liberal media in the US was stunned by the verbiage, but they are stunned by The Donald almost every day of the week.  Today is the day. Today is the day most nations and organizations will contemplate what was said after the meeting yesterday. Markers? What are the markers that might show us just how worried the world really is? Fuel. Fuel is one of the true indicators of relations and it’s the one I’ve been watching for years now. If the giants of that industry get worried, the price of fuel jumps and sometimes jumps big. What did it do today? 20 cents. IT went up only twenty cents. Hard to believe the world is running for bomb shelters just yet with the WTI only going up 20 cents. Does that mean it’s not that bad? No! It means one of two things. Ether some don’t believe it’s as bad as the US stated or, it’s not that bad yet! Oh, by the way! As a reminder, what is the number catalyst of the Russian economy? Yep. The price of fuel! Just keep that in the back of your head.

What was really said?

Here is where I may start to worry you. From the moment this gassing incident turned into a point of contention between the Russians and the US, I’ve been of the opinion the Russians did not formulate this event. I was not convinced they even were aware it was going to take place. My suspicions were on the Persians and their desire to not let Syria slip from their hands were the real culprits. Although I took this stance, I did state it would be more than concerning if the Russians really did have a part in the gas attack. I even said it would be an indicator of just how dangerous the Tsar had become.

I may very well have been wrong about my initial assumption! It appears, according to those I use to work with and trust, well, most of the time, the Tsar did have a hand in this event. If so, the part I did get right was just how dangerous that would be. My fear the Tsar may have been playing the US / Trump / along all this time may in some way be coming true.

Did the Tsar anticipate the story of interfering in the US elections going where it did? Did he believe he could meddle in US Presidential elections given how weak the US seemed, how divided it is and how unconcerned Trump seemed to be over Russian actions? Did the Tsar take advantage of knowing Trump really didn’t know the Tsar like he thought he did? As I said last week, did the Tsar underestimate The Donald? Yes, the Tsar was fully aware the US and the Russians had been “interfering” in other nation’s elections for decades. Did he underestimate where the world has gone with social media? What use to be easy to get away with is now nearly imposable! Did the Tsar’s miscalculation set into motion a reaction from the US President the Tsar was not prepared for? The Donald had to show the world he was not in Putin’s corner and he had to show the world he was not weak-kneed like his predecessor. Did the Tsar’s team of experts not see this coming? Has the US and the Russians been stumbling down the stairs of diplomacy ever since then? If things weren’t going well, not according to “plan”, then why the chemical attack? Again, did the Russians simply underestimate the US’s reaction…the reaction of a new President out to show America is Great Again! Just how bad was the physiological profile the Russians came up with on Donald Trump and the key members of his team?

Looks tell the story.

A picture is worth a thousand words! The look on Tillerson’s face yesterday was the issue that caught my eye first. Then, his body language and the tone of his voice. This is a man who knows the Russians. This is a guy who was chosen as the Secretary of State for the US for a reason. Flat and blunt. That is how a CEO of one of the largest companies in the world has leaned to react to unavoidable bad news. When the news is bad, keep it simple and keep the message short! Don’t box yourself in for further meetings. Whatever was said by the Russians yesterday took the steam out of a guy who knows the people across the table better than most. The Tsar was not supposed to meet with Tillerson, but they know each other and the Tsar showed up? Why? What was the message he wanted to make sure Tillerson understood? As soon as Tillerson and his team were finished, they headed over to the US Embassy and had secured communications with the White House. What was said? What made The Donald come to the podium and say what he did?

Tit for Tat!

By the time the NATO meeting was complete with Trump, it was clear the conversation had taken place with Tillerson. Yesterday, the media in the US asked the question, “How could Trump turn around on the issue of NATO so quickly”? It didn’t surprise me they had no clue and the talking heads the pay to get their faces on the network seemed just as clueless. Tillerson’s message set the Donald in motion! “If the Russians don’t reach out to you in the meeting, then I will show my full support for NATO”! Why did know one see that one coming? Well, some of us did. Donald Trump is a hardnosed, businessman. He comes to the table in a position of strength and if things don’t go his way, then other options are always going to be quickly explored. Imagine the faces in Moscow when President Trump suddenly voiced his unconditional support for NATO on the same day Tillerson came out of a meeting so flat lined. He knew if the meeting didn’t go well his boss had other options he would begin to take. The answers he got from the Russians let Tillerson know what the US President was going to say that day. NATO back in the US bucket. China tossed a golden egg on the issue of currency manipulation. Those two things didn’t happen yesterday by happenstance. Yesterday was a deliberate shift. A shift based upon two world leaders who misread each other from the start. A shift brought on by two guys who come to the table of negotiation strong and determined.

No the price of WTI doesn’t indicate a pending crisis between the US and Russia, but the ground work is set. The concept of a second round of a Cold War is now more plausible than before. Things are heading in a bad direction and both sides need to step back and take a breath. In the meantime, the Persians and the Little Fat Man in North Korea live to see another day in their dreams of the future. Speaking of the little fat guy. If the rumor is true and he is about to set off a sixth nuclear test, the story over this coming weekend may shift away from the new Cold War and focus on the real crisis in the Pacific.