LIBYA AND THE RISK OF INTERVENTION!
A lot of talk today about the US intervening in Libya and the associated risk with doing so.
The talking heads seem to be running the option game on as many shows as they can get paid for!
Let's talk in general, simplistic terms about what these options would require and then let's look at what the real risk are with each viable option.
" A No Fly Zone":
Wow; that one seems to used by all the folks who really think it makes them sound like tactical geniuses.
Here are the facts with a "No Fly Zone".
1. You must suppress all the anti air missile threats in the area you are going to fly in. To put it simply, you have to attack before you can just start flying in another countries' air space. To keep Libya from flying from city to city and bombing the resistance members, we would have to take out all of the costal anti air sites and that is the US attacking Libya. Are we really ready for that? I will give you a hint, the UN along with Russia and China are not!!
" Take out the Mad Dog himself with a 'smart bomb' or a Harpoon missile".
Here are the simple facts about this concept:
1. Again, the US is attacking the leader of a sovereign nation Folks; that is called an act of war. Are we ready for that action? This time around you have more than the UN, Russia and China to worry about, you have the reaction of several Arab Leaders in the Middle East not to mention a few idiots such as Mr. Chavez in Central America.
2. He will not be the only one killed. He is not sitting in a room by himself. Are we ready for that?
3. The golden rule of Assassination applies here. " Never Miss"!!!! If the Mad Dog survives the US attempting to kill him, all bets are off on what he may do.
4. Before we could attempt this act, we would have to remove all US and allied citizens from Libya. They are at his mercy if we miss him.
" WE should arm up the resistance fighters". Oh ya; a little note here. I've noticed some news networks are calling the anti government members, " rebels". A rebel has the connotation of being the "bad guy". Interesting.
Here are the simple facts about arming the "rebels / resistance fighters":
1. In our history, we have never just handed over weapons to anyone. It is in our doctrine that we 'train as we equip'. I cannot imagine handing over anti tank weapons, that's one of the items they will need, without some level of training.
2. Training implies troops on the ground. Did anyone pay attention to the 'rebels' / resistance members, take your pick, when they said they DO NOT WANT US military members on Libyan ground? That is what we call a "CLUE"!!!
3. Our enemies such as Iran and Syria would have a bonanza of propaganda tossed right into their laps! Oh ya, good luck getting that vote out of the UN or NATO!!
Ok; we could go on and on, but here are two thoughts to ponder not just with Libya but North Africa in general.
1. I do not believe the current administration has any intention of doing anything without the 'consensus' of the rest of the world / UN. 'Unilateral Action' is simply not in the US Strategic thought process right now.
2. For several years now, we have watched China's ever growing influence in Africa. If you do not believe China has a strategic plan for influencing the African Continent well into the 21st century, then you need to start reading and do so quickly. China is investing it's future based upon a large portion of Africa's natural resources and sharing with the US and Europe is not in their game plan. If the US, falters in showing it's strategic resolve in Africa, then we have set the stage for China dictating what goods / raw materials we will receive from the Continent. If you don't like being dependent on Middle Eastern Oil, you will be real upset when you see what China controlling African exports will do to us.
Yep; no easy answers folks. The world is not an easy place.
