ARCHDUKE  FERDINAND ON US SOIL???? 

  A few weeks ago I talked about how events like the assassination  of Archduke Ferdinand are  simply catalyst for events that are going to happen.

The huge story that broke today begs us to consider why Iran wanted this event to take place, and to take place in the US?

Before we go down that hypothetical road, lets me go over a few sidebar points that will be overlooked in the sensational size of this event.

For years the theory has been Terrorist organizations would never make any headway with the Drug Dealers of South  and Central America.

The theory has always been the Drug Lords would never want their operations tied to something as emotional as a Terrorist act.

So, how is it that the Iranian Qod would believe a Drug Organization would be willing to help with something as international as assassinating an Ambassador in the US?

How is it when this "plan" was brought up to the Qod leadership, they saw it as a sound concept? 

My answer is, they were more focused on the end results and didn't  analyze  the plan the way they typically would.

Never the less, this is a question that will need some detailed review.

I'll get back to this very worrisome issue in a few minutes. 

Now, back to the issue not alienating Mexico.

It was wise for the US government to explain how " involved" the Mexican government was in solving this case.

Just think if the US would  have announced this operation and Mexico didn't know of it?

If the US government has to keep the Drug Lord ... Terrorist link theory to a minimum, then they have to show how Mexico was involved.

The US must maintain the " theory" Drug Lords will not deal with Terrorist!.

The fact the "go between" was a DEA paid informant will strengthen the US government's stance or at least they hope it will.

The storyline will be, " the paid informant turned the Iranian contact in because they Drug Lords don't want anything to do with them.

The fact of the matter is, he probably turned the Iranian operation in for the same reason all paid informants give  information...... MONEY and staying out of Prison.

Ok, lets get down to the HUGE issue of why???

Why would Iran take such a dangerous path?

First of all, it's not new news!!!

Iran has had their fingers in plots to kill political leadership in the past.

This time around they may have just been real sloppy in their execution.

The fingerprints on the attack in Argentina were all over the place and nothing really came of it internationally.

Perhaps the Qod is trying to make a name for itself?

Perhaps some of the mid level leadership is simply trying to climb the latter?

Maybe that would explain the official Iranian statement full support if the accused are shown to actually involved in the event.

Perhaps this is a result of the power struggle in Iran?

Perhaps this... ....... perhaps that..... and so on.. and so on.....

Here is the cold hard fact!

Does anyone think for a single second that something as outrageous as assassinating two Ambassadors on US soil would not be blessed off on by the top of the leadership in Iran?

Some are going to speculate the Iranian President may have concocted this plot and not informed Khomeini.

Here is the problem with that theory; the Qod doesn't work for the President and as a matter of fact the Cod Commander is only loyal to Khomeini and would take out Ahmadinejad in a heartbeat if Khomeini said to do so.

So, lets, for the sake of argument, say the plot had the blessing of the highest levels.

Oh by the way, that is exactly what the Saudi and Israeli leadership  is going to believe anyway.

Back to the question of why?????

On page 15 of the FBI complaint, you will notice in one of the conversations between the accused the statement is made, "it's already late"; late being the assassination of the Ambassador.

This adds yet another twist to this event.

Was there a timeline and if so, why?

The FBI and other agencies will be hard at work to prove the case in court.

The  US Administration and DoS will need to make the case on why actions should be considered against Iran and what actions should be taken.

So, who is looking at " why" and perhaps why a timeline?

Let me take a stab at why?

It appears this plot has been underway for over a year if you take into consideration how long the Qod would have worked on the concept with senior leadership before ever talking to " middle men".

That means this event predates the Arab Spring.

Why is that important?

It means this act was probably not, at least initially, designed to save Syria or keep the Arab Spring form coming to Iran.

So, back to why?

Would killing the Saudi and Israeli Ambassadors to the US in the US lead to anything but the real possibility of war in the Middle East?

Some will say how could it not?

It's one thing to bomb a building, but killing another countries Ambassador not to mention two Ambassadors who both happen to represent the mortal enemy of only one other country.... Iran, would be interpreted by the whole world as an act of War.

Was Iran looking for war with not only Saudi and Israel, but the US as well????

How insane would that possibly appear?

How could Iran ever believe for a minute the whole world would not see their fingerprints on this event?

Again..... back to the million dollar question.... Why????

Here is the problem with answering this question... there is absolutely no logical answer!!!  

Right?????

Wrong!!!!!

Here goes my answer and it's the only one I can come up with for now and that may change soon!!!

Over a year ago the Iranian government was convinced it was facing an imminent attack over it's nuclear program.

It's military and it's religious leadership was fixated with the idea of being " Invaded"!

Iran knew and knows it has absolutely no chance of surviving such an attack.

Yes, they talk a good battle, but when the door are closed and the real analysis is conducted, they know they are finished and the dreams of their Empire are gone!

Perhaps.... just perhaps... they had come to the conclusion it was the only way out.

Why wait for your demize?

Why not terrorize an already war weary public such as the US and take you chance with the US staying out of a regional war?

I know it sound unrealistic, but desperate nations come up with desperate plans.

Thus... my lead in on the history of WW1 and the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.

Now, remembering this plot started well over a year ago, the dramatic and demoralizing events of Syria and the Arab Spring could have only made this fear of a lost future all the more realistic.

Could the assassination of two arch enemies Ambassadors on US soil be the last desperate attempt to show how willing Iran was and is to survive?

For the sake of moving on with this mystery, lets assume the Iranian leadership was willing to accept the gamble of this " warning" leading to war.

" What do we have to lose"??? That could very well be the mindset.

Finally; lets look at the statement of " already being late".

Assume they say this as the last warning, why a timeline?

Assad!!!

For over four months now, Iran has known Assad is not going to survive.

Looking for someone Iran can " work with" is less and less likely given the relationship Turkey is building with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Yes, the door is closing on Syria, or at least Iran believes so!

Wanting this WW1 type of event to take place soon could simply be a matter of knowing how much longer Assad has left.

Without Syria, there is no Iranian Regional power  future... There is not Persian Empire!!

I have talked for months about Iran desperately needing a distraction.

I must admit, even I could not imagine an Archduke Ferdinand plan!!

the next few days will be not only fascinating to watch.. they could be down right dangerous.

The attached document is complaint filed by the FBI.

It was posted on CNN this afternoon.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/10/11/complaint.amended.pdf?hpt=hp_t1