THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS. IRAN’S “SHADOW GOVERNMENT”.

            In a world that seems to be controlled by “rumors”, thanks to social media, I read an interesting one this weekend. Rumor. Soleimani may be on the “outs” with his Boss in Tehran. Not only General Soleimani, but others in the IRGC. Now, that is interesting, especially to a guy like me, a guy who asked the question, “Where does Soleimani’s loyalties lie”? It was only last week that I asked this question on this very blog page. Yep, this “rumor” caught my attention and that led me down the path of yet another question, one I’ve asked before. What is the ultimate goal of the IRGC?

Brief Background on the IRGC:

            Some folks have gone out and written books on the topic of the IRGC, but I’m not into academic level analysis. Let me give you the down and dirty about the IRGC. The organization was started for one primary reason, the so called “Revolutionaries” didn’t trust the Iranian military…..period….. end of story. By the way, did they have any reason to? Ask Turkey. Now, not long after this poorly designed organization was started, Iran stepped into the eight year war with Iraq, a war that saw the US and it’s Allies openly supporting Iraq and So Damn Insane😊. What happened to the fledgling organization in that eight year war? They were decimated time and time again. By the time Tehran decided to give up, the IRGC was not even on the rest of the world’s radar. The old men in Tehran decided it was time to invest in a force that could execute the plans Tehran had for the region and this investment was not going to take place for an organization they didn’t trust and had just lost an eight year war.

            Flash forward a decade or so and you see the “new” IRGC. The IRGC that controls large areas of Iranian business, policy and development. What you see is the Iranian version of the Nazi SS, complete with a Hitler Youth Group look alike called, “ The Basij”. Now, jump to current times and you see an even more powerful organization. An organization that forms the backbone of the Iranian government. Simply put, without the IRGC, the old men in Tehran are nothing and nobody knows this more than they do. Let’s face facts. The IRGC is the Shadow Government of Iran. Everyone that studies Iran, knows this to be true and you can bet the US and the IC world believes that statement.  

The Haves and the Have Nots:

            Just where does the “regular” Iranian military stand? If you want a quick answer,  take a look at the two Iranian Navies. Yes, over ten years ago, Iran supposedly reorganized their two navies, on paper at least. One was given the primary job and one was given the “backup” job. Guess which Navy was tasked with the most important job? Who received a lion’s share of the funding? Yep. The IRGC. The climate of haves and have nots has been growing from day one and its growing as this post is being written. A climate of haves and have nots, not only with day to day Iranian citizens, but with military members as well exist in Iran. Are there interservice rivalries in other nation’s militaries? Yes, huge ones, but are those nations at the brink of social unrest? Are those services known for not training together, not working together and please don’t tell me the Iranian military “works” together. If you know them, then you know their ability to conduct combined arms, fires, operations on a modern battlefield are non existent. The reality is, the military the old men in Tehran feared when they first came to power, is still not trusted today and thus not funded and not utilized. Who knows this better than the men who serve in that “regular” military? Okay, back to a statement I made for a minute, because I know some of you are going to say, “Iran has a very capable military”. Where is their version of Joint Readiness Training Center / JRTC? What it the location of the Iranian, National Training Center/ NTC?  Name me the Professional Military Education classes / PME / that prepare Iranian Army leaders to  interoperate with Iranian Naval forces and Air assets on the battlefield? Look. You can buy all the weapons systems you want. You can have as many parades and live fires as you like. That does not make nor will it EVER make you a modern military capable of 21^st century warfare.

Trust:

            Iran’s leadership includes senior members of the IRGC. How’s that for integration? Not only does the IRGC control a large segment of the Iranian economy, they actually control part of the government itself. Shadow…remember the word. It’s seems the old men in Tehran, “Trust” the IRGC implicitly. Okay, then why the “rumor” of replacements? Yes. It’s just a “rumor”, but someone started it. It has some purpose behind it. Can someone create a perception of doubt by starting such a “rumor”? Ah yes, the art of Information Warfare comes back to the table. Or….. the “rumor” is true! The “rumor’s origin is a “reliable source”? Here’s one that is even better. The “Rumor” is wrapped in the storyline the “source” is reliable. The “source” is on the inside!  You have to love information warfare, perception management, Effects Based Operations….call it what you want……you just have to love how it pulls on the strings of “trust”. Someone let General Soleimani hear yet another “rumor” about his fate. Does he shrug it off? Does he wonder just how desperate the old men are becoming? Does he see this new movement of youthful “hardliners” as a group that no longer values his abilities or actions? What conversations has he had about the future of Iran and who has he had those conversations with? Trips to Moscow……remember the word…….shadow!

            Has someone successfully convinced the old men that changes need to take place in the most important branch of the Iranian government, the IRGC? Have the Mullahs really begun to worry about the leadership of the one organization that could remove them from power, the organization they built to protect them? More importantly, what is the most important issue to the IRGC? Do they see a pending war they cannot win? Do they see their own people having to be gunned down in their towns and cities to keep the old men in power? Do they see what they have feared since 2011, the Arab Spring…..Persian style? They can fight the US and Israel and Saudi and a few others. They can inflict economic damage on the West, but that damage will have tremendous repercussions for Moscow. Is that what their most vital supporters want? Does Moscow intend on keeping the old men in power at the cost of a regional war? Would an Arab Spring type event not be much less costly to the overall desires of the US and Moscow and even China? Just how important are these Mullahs? In the past few days, the people of Iran have been taking to the streets demanding not just change, but food, water, jobs, you know….a life! There is one man who can make all of this go away. General Soleimani, and the old men in Tehran know it. He can make the people of Iran go away in a Civil War blood bath like the one he is involved with in Syria or he can make the old men in Tehran go away. What option is it the Mullahs must believe he is contemplating? Why the “rumor” of Soleimani’s departure? The IRGC is a Shadow Government and General Soleimani is the most known Iranian military figure in the world. A figure that has made trips to Moscow. A Moscow that is cutting “deals” with the US on the whole region. If the Mullahs still own property in France, they may want to have someone get the place ready. Perception Management and Effects Based Operations, you just gotta love it! “ You’re Fired…..NO Old Man….You are fired”!