VENEZUELA AND THE US’S ATTEMPT TO FINALLY GET IT RIGHT.

Back on my soapbox on the issue of Central and South America. At the beginning of the year, I said this section of the world was more important and more interesting to me than the Middle East and I must admit, I had and continue to have a hard time living up to my word. But…..but….. the events in Venezuela give me the desire to stay on task. Would I love to address the growing tension between Iran and Israel or the Sultan’s desires for neutralizing the Kurds? Yes, but Venezuela is the topic of the day and it could easily become much more than just a topic. Will the events there pull the US media away from project “ get Trump”? probably not, unless something takes place that could lead to a story about how The Donald screwed things up with Venezuela, then it might just make the headlines for a day or two. So, let’s go. Let’s take a look at why the story of todays protest in Venezuela matter.

Can the US finally get it right?

            Is backing Juan Guaido the right move? Is he not just another left of Center Liberal in Central or South America? Well, for one thing, just about everyone down there wears the title of “ Social Activist” or Socialist Party to some degree. Where does that leave DC? Just how much do they know about him and how much do they have invested in him? Educated in the US? Yes. Protested against Mr. Baseball….Hugo Chavez? Yes. Supported by the Organization of American States, a concept the US came up with? Yes. Well, it looks like, at least for now, this is “ the guy” the US is going to hang it’s hat on. Is that an improvement over the ruthless military officers the US has backed in the past? Absolutely. Was the VP of the US’s statement about supporting him an example of the US “meddling” in the governance of other nations? Yep. Is that a hot topic in the US right now? Yep. Is it another classic example of, “do as I say, not as I do”? you bet it is, but let’s hold off on that issue for another day😊.

Juan Guaido:

Just what level of “support” is the US willing to provide Juan Guaido? More importantly, what level of “support” is Juan willing to accept? That seems to be where the US historically shoots itself in the foot. Triple Digit Agencies and NGOs have already been “working” inside of Venezuela and only the good Lord knows what the outcome of that might be. Does Juan really trust those who seem to want to “help”? Does he feel like he’s taking out a loan with the Mafia? Who else is willing to “help”? The Dragon? The Tsar? Who is providing help to the current government in Venezuela and how committed are they to combatting the “help” the US may want to provide to Juan? The destabilization of Central America is once again easily a strategic goal of both the Dragon and the Tsar. What better way to pull the US population’s attention away from the Pacific and Europe or even the Middle East than by lighting larger fires on the US border? Don’t forget my theory on The Weaponization of Mass Migration, something I talked about yesterday to a group of folks in Texas.  Juan may have the best intentions to help the people of Venezuela and we all know they could use the help, but is that what everyone else is after? Syria went up in flames as it became a victim of Super Power struggles. Yes, the Super Powers still have struggles and the truth is, they are going to get much worse.

Is the stage set for Civil War?

            Are sections of the Venezuela military still pro US? You bet. What do you think those triple digit agencies and NGOs are doing down there………….. helping the people? Does the current government know this? Silly question, just listen to Maduro speak and you have your answer. Does the government of Maduro truly trust the military? Nope. Why do you think Mr. Baseball / Chavez formed the “ National Bolivarian Militia of Venezuela”…..oh by the way….where did Mr. Baseball get the idea? Tehran…… his old partners in Iran…..you know…. The Basij Forces of Venezuela! So, Juan reaches out today to the Offices and members of the regular military and ask them not to fire on the people protesting. Smart play? You bet it is. Will it work? It doesn’t have to. All he has to do is get Maduro to think it’s might work and he will do the work for Juan. Setting off the emotions of a person who is already paranoid beyond rational thought is not a hard thing to do. Just fly another drone over his head and watch how he reacts.

            Yes. The seeds of a Civil War are in place. Will one take place? The odds are moving in favor of it happening. Will outside players make it far more complicated? Ask anyone in Syria and you will have your answer. Yes. I’m watching the area of the world I said was going to be important in 2019. Let’s just hope I’m wrong on how it’s all going to unfold.