AFRIN SCORECARD. ARE THE OTTOMAN FORCES STUCK?

               Rumors of losses for the Turks in Afrin continue to grow. How can Egodan possibly talk of moving towards the next objective if he can’t win the first one? Have the Turks limited their operations in Afrin? Yes. Will it require more effort to take Afrin? Well, he could just declare he has cleansed the area and be done with it. I mean, think about it. Who in Turkey is going to question him? Now, YouTube clips showing up all over the place showing the Kurd’s still in control would not serve Egodan well, but then again, he could just ban the use of YouTube in Turkey if he wanted. He’s that kind of guy.  The bottom line is, things are not going well for the Turks and everyone is beginning to see it. If that’s not bad enough, Pro Assad forces, code for Iranian backed forces, have now begun to enter the city. You, know, Iran’s version of Russia’s “Little Green Men”. Little Green Men! It seems that is the new trend now days. Funny. What is old is new again! Pro Assad forces to the rescue of the Kurds, the same Kurd groups those Pro forces were fighting for the past seven years. Yep. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend, at least for a little while and then I’ll kill him! Scorecards. Everyone keeps trying to figure out the scorecards for the region. Baseball scorecards are done in pencil and that is for a reason. The region’s scorecard is no different.

What’s next?

               A few days ago, I made the comment the hands of the Persians are all over this issue in Afrin. Are the Iranians doing so at the behest of Moscow or are they doing so to agitate the Russians? Does it really matter? Oh ya. You bet it does. As I said above, what is old is new again. That holds true with the Western / US / abandonment of the Kurds. Is that what the West / US / has done? Have they abandon the Kurds yet again? Could the Kurds have possibly been so naïve to think   the West / US/ wouldn’t at some point leave them to die? What’s that old saying, “fool me once, shame on you…..fool me twice, shame on me”. Did that abandonment result in the Kurds making a deal with Iran? I say Iran because we all know Assad doesn’t make decesions for Syria anymore. One Puppet Master, Moscow, is giving one set of instructions by the strings. The problem for Assad is, he has two sets of strings. So, that’s it? The Kurds are reluctant allies with Iran as well as climbing back in bed with the Russians? Is Moscow willing to see Pro Assad forces, run by Iran, going into battle with Turkey? Can Iran ether knowingly or unknowingly play the “Good Cop, Bad Cop” game with the Russians? What is the goal? What is the end-state of this ploy? Do the Russians want Iran to have a stronger voice in the affairs of Syria? No. Are the Russians willing to let the Iranians think they are showing their influence in Syria? Perhaps. Is the idea of seeing a major member of NATO, on paper only, slide into a conflict with the Assad government? How do they limit the outcome? How does Russia continue to delegitimize NATO, yet keep Turkish forces from attacking locations in Syria with Russian assets on them? No matter what is actually taking place, here is the real question. Can Moscow/ Putin / or DC or anyone else truly predict the actions of the new Sultan? Can the Ottoman Empire, as Egodan sees it, be counted on to show restraint? What if the Pro Assad forces bloody the nose of the Turks? Do any of these folks truly have the ability to predict the response of a person as unstable as Egodan? The Pro Assad forces are moving into Afrin. The Turks are stuck in the Afrin “mud” already. Let’s see just how bad the Sultan wants to save face.