PRISONER SWAPS AND DANGEROUS CONVERSATIONS

Two quick topics tonight that both have interesting undertones.

The Prisoner swap;

 " if you can call it that... 1000 for 1??, has a hidden message to it that DEBKA clearly picked up on.

http://www.debka.com/article/21380/

Over the past few months I have talked about how Hamas was beginning to see " other options" other than staying with the sinking ship named Assad.

The " Mother ship", Muslim Brotherhood, was been on a steady course to pull Hamas back into the " Master Plan".

Like any good Mafia handshake, there was going to be a price paid for the new power brokers in the Middle East reaching back out to Hamas.

Hamas also see value in this " swap'.

It's a good time for Hamas to show the Palestinian people Abbas is not the only one who can make " great deals" for the Palestinians.

Here comes the catch, at least as far as Hamas is concerned, the MB will control how this deal unfolds and what parts will change, not Hamas.

As soon as the Palestinian people understand this, and that is probably already happening, then Hamas could end up looking like a MB Puppet.  If the shoe fits......

So what's in it for the MB, the swap that is?

First off, it sets the playing field as far as letting Israel and the US and the EU know who is calling the shots for Hamas.

Hamas may not even recognize this yet, but the rest of the world will and quickly.

Hamas Syrian main office moving back to Egypt is a forgone conclusion.

It's what the MB wants and Hamas will listen to their new Master.

Remember, the pace of the Palestinian statehood issue will be set by the MB, not Abbas or Hamas.

Abbas set the ball in motion at the UN ,but only after traveling to Egypt to get the God Father's blessing.

Next question:

What does Israel get out of this deal?

Yes, the emotional issue of a young man who has becomes a centerpiece of Israeli party politics is finally solved.

More importantly, Israel, at a moment in time when they desperately need it, gets credit for trying to work with the Palestinian radical Hamas.

Yes, for Israel right now, public perception, especially outside of Israel, is critical.

So, 1000 for 1 is a message in itself.

" We are trying ... . just look how far we went on this issue"?

The dangers of tough talk to paranoid governments;

The news media was buzzing with stories of the US administration " talking" to Iranian leadership about the " plot".

The logical question becomes, what was the message and what was the response?

Did the US administration call Iran and say, " look... don't get too paranoid.. we are upset but no hostile actions are going to initiate on our part"?

As spooked as the Iranian government is right now over their nuclear program and the events of the Arab Spring, this might not be a bad message, but I seriously doubt  that took place.

If this would have been the message, the US administration would never admit it.

So, what else could have been said?

" You need to understand just how serious this situation is and the dangers it presents to your nation".

Sounds too much like Ronald Reagan and Lord knows Ronald Reagan is not in the White House.

Regardless of what the alleged conversation centered on, the danger is once again based on the all important reality of " Perception".

What is said in DC must be weighed very... very... carefully as to how it will be "Perceived" by Iranian leadership.

The US administration must remember the concept of public media in the Middle East, especially in Iran.

Making a open press announcement that the US leadership has " spoken" to Iranian leadership, can be easily misinterpreted.

Does Iranian leadership perceive this comment implies the US " Threatened" Iran?

Perhaps!

Does the Iranian leadership perceive the US administration is fabricating this into a campaign issue?

I would put money on this one.

I go back to my point about DC being very careful in analyzing how their statements in the West will play in the Middle East.

As an example; Al Jazeera is not known for being a supporter of Iranian leadership, yet their coverage today of how questionable this " plot" allegation really is can not be overlooked.

Even CNN ran a front page story on the "doubts" some  so called " Experts" have on the charges against Iran.

I can't tell you how much that CNN story and those like it will feed the " conspiracy" fire in the Middle East.

Iran could easily turn this story into yet another allegation of US " Lies" concocted to punish the Iranian people.

I will end this by stating a simple fact.

US agencies such as the FBI and the Department of Justice are the best in the world at winning in the US Court of Law!!!

The problem is the US Court of Law is not the gold standard of Middle Eastern public opinion.

Yep, the US may be correct in it's allegation towards Iran and yet lose the " Perception War" with  a large part of the world.

It's a concept the US simply doesn't understand to this day.