ROUHANI AND SOLEIMANI AND “KISS THE HAND”!
This week had an event some of us should have found strange. Soleimani, the Pit Bull of the Old Men in Tehran, had flowering words for Rouhani, the guy Soleimani’s Boss wants gone! Why, he even said he “ kisses the hand” of Rouhani. Wait.....what???? Just Hours before this story broke, all the talk by the “experts” was the issue of. The Old Men wanting Rouhani glammed for the social unrest in Iran. Once again, they wanted him gone! Then, the kiss the hand statement? What’s going on here? Yes, Tehran is looking for someone or something to once again blame the social unrest on. Yes, it looked as if Rouhani and his so called, “moderate viewpoint” was going to be the target. But, then Soleimani, reaches out to him? Did his Boss know this, kiss the hand, statement was coming? How do you go from blaming Rouhani for all that is wrong in the country to having your most respected Warrior kissing his hand? Boy oh boy, can my imagination run wild on this one. Yes, Iran is in trouble, socially. A youthful population is still just as unhappy as it was a few years ago and all the efforts to build Persian Nationalism by the IRGC has failed. By the way, that attempt by the IRGC is a “clue” to what I think may be happening, but I’ll get to that in a few. So, Iran is in social trouble based upon it’s squandering of the wealth Obama sent them and that economic picture just got much worse with The Donald going into a full court press to cut off Iranian oil. Moscow is negotiating with The Donald on the future of NATO and Eastern Europe and his key hold card continues to be the Middle East. A Middle East Tehran gets no vote on when Moscow and DC talk. Bottom line, things can get much worse for Iran and the Old Men in Tehran are growing more and more desperate. Now, stack on top of all of this, the reality that Israel is not going to allow Iranian and or Hezbollah forces near the border with Southern Syria and once again, Moscow and not Tehran is deciding the outcome of that event. To top it all off, what does Iran do? It once again threatens the Straights. Not only that, but Rouhani makes the same threat? So, two options here.
- Rouhani is trying to save his job.
Soleimani has never been a big fan of Rouhani and to hear him say he kisses his hand had to have come as a shock. The threat came while Rouhani was negotiating with the EU over the failed nuclear “deal”. Trying to squeeze more out of the EU made restating the threat to the Straits a timely issue. The fact that Rouhani, the Moderate, :) made the statement caught some of the folks in the West, off guard. Was it an attempt to show his Boss he was onboard with the Hardliners? Was he just swimming down stream for the sake of not being drowned? Maybe, but I would still be the person that responded to his statement was the issue that surprised him the most. Now. Point number 2.
- Did Soleimani send a message?
Remember my comment about the IRCG pushing the concept of Persian Nationalism? If you are not up to speed on the topic, I would ask you go do a little research. I posted about this topic a few months ago and I’ve been wondering just where the IRGC would go next if the attempt failed. So, here’s my theory. I’ve said this on several occasions, Soleimani is a Iranian Nationalist. Yes, his loyalty, on the surface, is with the Old Men, but in the end, his goal is Iran, not just a radical form of religion. If anyone can see the handwriting on the wall, if anyone can see a pending doom in the near future, it’s Soleimani. No one knows the ray them of the streets of Iran better than his people. No one understands the insanity of Iran fighting a war with Israel and the US. No one understands more than him that Moscow is simply playing Iran as a Pawn in a much larger game. If the General see a real threat to Iran’s future and he knows the Old Men are so set in their ways that they will let that threat become reality, what does he do? Does he do whatever it takes to save the future of Iran? Does he allow the threat of starting a nuclear weapons program seal the fate of Iran’s military? Does he allow threats over the Straits to push Iran’s economy and social stability over the cliff? Or.....or....does he send a message, a classic, between the lines, message to the “Moderate”? Does Soleimani let Rouhani know he is with him if the time comes for real change? Would the IRGC follow him if he suddenly backed Rouhani? Yes. Would key Iranian military commanders follow him? Yes? Is he the real leadership figure in Iran? Well, he must may be the Douglas MacArthur of Iran and this just may be the Korean War for Iran. That would make Khamenei the Harry Truman of the story and we all know what President Truman had to do when General Mac Arthur got out of control. The problem is, this time around the Mac Arthur figure may win! Anyway you slice it, the kiss your hand statement was strange.
