A THIRD INTIFADA???? WHAT WOULD IT MEAN THIS TIME AROUND?
It's undeniable that the rumor mill of a possible third Intifada
is becoming more and more prevalent throughout
the region.
If we put aside trying to figure out just how possible this
could be an concentrate on it was to happen what would it mean, there are some
interesting changes since the second event almost 12 years ago.
Here are a few interesting issues that need to be considered
as anyone anticipates a future event.
The physical barriers that have been placed by the Israeli
government will make the infiltration of suicide bombers much more difficult to
accomplish; but creativeness is a trait of the Palestinians!
Creating chaos outside of these barriers may not have the
same impact as they would inside the major towns and cities but given the 24
seven 365 day year news coverage and the overwhelming increase of social media
since the last Intifada the impact might be psychologically just as severe as
in the past.
On the topic of the relationship, or the lack thereof,
between Hamas and Fatah it will be interesting to see who would win the public
relations contest between the two with the Palestinian people.
The idea that Hamas and Fatah would jointly execute a third
Intifada is simply not realistic, at least not at this time!
Interesting enough, I would anticipate both groups would
struggle with maintaining control of a modern day/social media driven Intifada.
The theory that such an event could spin out of control there
by limiting the influence of both Hamas
and Fatah is more than realistic.
How would the Muslim brotherhood / Mr Morsi leverage such an
event?
With the Egyptian government even support such an uprising in
the near future?
Remembering that the Muslim brotherhood seems to have a
"master plan" for their operations in the region would they condone a
Palestinian driven uprising just now?
How about the Iranians?
What would be their role/influence/reaction to a third Intifada?
Like the Egyptians, is this something they would support
right now or would it do them more harm than good and quite honestly could they
impact events is this taking place one way or the other?
And what about Syria ?
Would Assad see such event as "Manta from Heaven"?
The distraction value would be priceless from Assad's viewpoint.
His problem is, he's lost virtually all influence with any
Palestinian group and although he may profit by such an event the danger would
be any repercussions would be uncontrollable by the Syrian government.
Simply put, Syria
would be along for the ride one way or the other.
Next, Lebanon ?
We cannot mention the
repercussions for Lebanon ,
without factoring in ever imposing Hezbollah!
The fallout of a
third Intifada for Lebanon
would be extremely dangerous at a minimum.
I'm quite confident that the weight of the Syrian crisis
stacked with the weight of the third Intifada in the region would be far more
than the fragile Lebanese government could withstand.
Now, for the most interesting topic from my
viewpoint.
What would be the role of the "Dayton Battalions"?
An interesting concept that I've never been confident the
correct move.
In my opinion, these units were developed with the support
of the US and others for the
sole purpose of countering Hamas and the attempted takeover of the West Bank .
Yes, it is true these units on a day-to-day basis work well
with Israeli forces, as well as can be expected.
But, in open conflict, predominantly in the West Bank , where would the loyalties of these young
Palestinian paramilitary police come down?
How embarrassing would it be to see the IDF having to engage
and destroy units that were vetted by the Israelis and trained by the US in Jordan ?
Well, it's easy to figure out they third Intifada will most
likely be nothing like the first or the second.
Times of changed, alliances have changed, capabilities had
changed and this is all placed into an environment that is already on a
regional crisis stage.
Predicting actions and impacts of the third Intifada based
upon the history of the previous two would be a drastic mistake for all parties.
So, the rumors of a possible third event seem to percolate
with each passing day, but who would support it, how would it be supported, how
would it execute and most importantly how would it spread; these are the real
issues!
Never fight the next battle based upon the last battle!
I can think of no better advice for all parties involved.
