NATO…. ARTICLE FIVE …. AND THE MOVIE “FAIL SAFE”

Yesterday, I mentioned the predicament of NATO informing one of its members, Turkey, it would not support any hostile actions implemented by Turkey. Given how this announcement can and most likely will be leveraged by Turkey, I thought it was worthy of further analysis.

First off, let’s get the issue of what Article Five really means to this scenario. It’s simple, Article Five covers the issue of any member of NATO being attacked, not attacking. What Turkey is involved in is shelling Syrian Territory. Now, Turkey would argue they are responding to ongoing attacks from a group they consider to be Terrorist. Here is the problem with that argument. That group is not represented by the country they are operating from. This argument could go around and around and frankly, there are more important topics to consider.

I’ve mentioned before the fact that the Turkish leadership may actually be pushing this argument to test NATO’S resolve. The thought process could very well be, “let’s see just how far NATO is willing to be seen by the Russians as being a Paper Tiger, a relic of the Cold War”. If that is what is taking place, then my bet is the Turks have drastically underestimated the war fatigue Europe and the US is still suffering from. Fifteen years and counting!

Even if the Turks are testing the resolve of NATO, the next level of decision making is one they understand is going to be even harder to deal with. Wars have a long history of getting underway, before anyone really figures out why and how!.  If it’s 2am on the Turkish border with Syria and suddenly an explosion takes place at one of the Turkish artillery sites firing on Syrian land, who will stop what happens next?  How worried is everyone about just such a scenario? Why do we continue to see John Kerry seemingly announcing an immediate cease fire deal on a daily bases?  The level of concern seems to be just below panic, if it is below. Nobody understands this more than the Turks. Cloud the issue of how it really gets started and then watch the position NATO is put in.

Well, this all seems rather defeatist in nature, but those who pray this conflict may not come to pass have one huge advantage.  Are the Russians and the Turks really, really, ready to dive into a conflict with each other? Is that truly what the Tsar and the Ottoman Sultan see as the future of their two nations?  I don’t believe it and I am not in the minority. Even two, irrational world leaders such as the ones in question, have a strong understanding of what this conflict might lead to.   As hard as they might try, as soon as the conflict began, the ability to disengage, the ability to “save face” would quickly disappear. The short answer is this; the price is too great to even risk the event taking place.

Unfortunately, if you just took a deep breath and decided it was safe to go back to watching Dancing with the Stars, you might want to contemplate a worrisome issue.  There is a third party in this formula and this third party simply dreams of the conflict we are horrified might take place.  The Zombies….. Go back and read some of my post from when ISIS first came to the headlines……… Zombies… that’s what I called them and that is just how we are treating them….by the way…..in no Zombie move ever…did the conventional military forces defeat the fast spreading Zombie infection… just a point of reference.  Ok, back to my point. When two opposing forces are in near contact with each other and every mistake seems to be just a trigger pull away, then the margin of error is razor thin.  Reluctance, caution may be the standing order, but it never relieves tension, at least not to level that guarantees safety. Bombs went off in Turkey just three days ago and the Western World’s first reaction was, “don’t use that as an excuse to start a conflict in Syria”! Paranoid? Absolutely! Was it the Kurds, well when the Turks hinted they thought it was, all of Europe held its collective breath. One of the first rules of conflict avoidance between two opposing forces is to create distance between the two. The second is to guarantee swift, immediate communications. I have little confidence ether of these measures is taking place right now. 

Are we close to a conflict that nobody really wants and absolutely no one will know how to stop?

Yes.

Is there a Red Phone between the Ottomans and the Russians? Let’s hope so and let’s also hope there is no “Fail Safe” event.

Now, go back to watching Dancing with the Stars……if you canJ !!!!!