IS IRAN FINALLY PLAYING IT'S HAND?
This
press announcement by Masoud Jazayeri is interesting.
It is
my understanding, this is the first open
press release, if you can call
the
Fars News agency open, where Iran warns other Arab states to stay out of
the
events taking place in Syria.
The
mostly muted microphone from Tehran has been more than unusual over the
past
sixteen months of conflict in Syria.
Most
governments understand explicitly the strategic importance of Syria to
Iran.
It's
for that exact reason the mostly silent response from Tehran on Syria
has
been puzzling.
Iran's
support to Assad's government is undeniable, but the open criticism
public
information campaign by Iran has been virtually nonexistent.
So why this bold statement now and why such a
precise message to Saudi?
I'm
not sure the Iranian leadership was has ever been really convinced Assad
would
fall.
With
the events of the past week and the feedback Tehran must be receiving
from
its operatives in Syria that thought process may have just officially
changed.
I
would be willing to bet Iran has been contemplating Assad's fall and a
Sunni
government in Syria, but the Risk Assessment Iran calculated did not
lead
them to believe they need to place a bold warning to the supporters of
the
rebels.
Again,
that appears to have changed.
The
attacks in Damascus, Aleppo and the border crossings all taking place
within
a one week period has apparently had a dramatic impact on Iran.
Floating
this threat by a lower level Commander is a sign the Iranian's are
still
cautious of drawing a line in the sand, just yet.
My
bet is, if actions in Aleppo continue and the border crossings are not
secured,
thus preventing resupply, Iran will ratchet up this warning.
Assad's
statement about WMD operations followed by this Iranian threat is no
coincidence.
