CHINA AND THE UNAVOIDABLE WAR

I read the article, link attached at the end,  and before I get started, let me just say what a joy it was to finally find out who has been writing some of the better stories for Asia Times. Yes I know, all I had to do is look at the bottom of the articles and I would have learned of Grant Newsham months ago. Having admitted my oversight, it’s now evident Grant is a person worth paying attention to. 

After I finished his story on a war between Taiwan and China, my most resounding fear came back to me. Folks, the US, and whoever else wishes to fight, has a war coming and it’s unlike any war we have seen in the history of the human race. How does it start? I took a shot at that topic in my book,  https://www.amazon.com/SECOND-DARK-AGES-unofficial-Review-ebook/dp/B07YP1LTYM 

What Grant Newsham has accomplished ,so brilliantly, is to provide a realistic glimpse at yet another scenario, leading to a war with China. So, before I dive into this post, let me just say, if you don’t read Grant Newsham’s work, you need to. 

Taiwan: 

I’ve asked this question before on this blog site, but let me ask it again. Is the US willing to fight a war over Taiwan? Newsham paints a very realistic picture of what might force the US and others to enter such a war, but would the people truly follow the government’s lead? When the US entered World War I and II, the nation was divided and as such, it’s logical to assume the US would take on a war with China even with the US population was against the conflict. It’s happened before.

Here is the reality Grant Newsham brings home. Wars don’t just start because both sides decide to have a fight. Most wars start when one side decides they see an advantage from war or they see no option but war. Hint,  the advantage scenario almost always has not negotiation period, or such a period does take place and the passive approach by the opposition emboldens the aggressor. Think about that approach for a minuet and then say the word, Tehran.

Yes, the other side of a conflict has the option of just saying no to the fight and letting the aggressor take what it wants. Grant address this scenario over the issue of Taiwan and does so with dire results. He also brought an issue to the table that cannot be overlooked. I is not afraid to go to war. He and his military commanders may even desire some event that sends a message to the world, “ We have taken the lead”! When Grant mentions Xi’s comments in January of 2019 ,the argument over what stance China is taking is over. I remember reading the translation of that speech and thinking to myself, “here they come”.  Would China start a war over Taiwan? The answer is most likely, yes.

Fight now or fight later: 

If we accept the theory China would be willing to fight a war over Taiwan, a war that could lead to a global war, then shouldn’t we pick the time of that event? If you read my book, you now my theory. The West simply keeps kicking the China conflict down the road until it’s too late. When Grant Newsham argues there is mostly likely no way to avoid this fight, then we need to consider exactly what that means. His recommendation the US and others stand up to China now is exactly the right approach. Here is the fatal flaw in Grant’s statement. The current leadership in DC is too consumed with internal politics to find the unity required to address the China crisis. In the Western corporate world, there is only one goal, breaking into the 1.5 BILLION persons market China represents. Thinking of or even planning for a conflict is not on the radar of those who pay for the political campaigns in the US.

As I said before, Grant Newsham hit’s the nails on the head when he states many in China are itching to show their might to the rest of the world. Nationalism runs high in parts of China, not all parts, but some. This nationalistic stance is spearheaded by Xi’s and many of his military commanders. Folks, that is a recipe for war. So, in the case of Taiwan, here is the ground truth. China is willing to go to war over Taiwan. Taiwan just reflected a President, Thai Ingwen, who demands, “Mainland China” respect Taiwan’s independence. Does this sound like the unloveable object headed towards the unstable object? A little good news here. This story has been going on for a few decades. Did I call that good news? Let me be honest, it may not be good news. The, “ Ah....it’s been going on for ever.....they always talk that way”, viewpoint is another key ingredient for war. China has changed. It’s military has changed drastically. The old, “ ah....bla...bla...bla”, theory is just plain dangerous.

Is there a good time to have a war, a war that could go nuclear? The realty is, the answer is yes. If you look at history, many conflict have started based upon the concept of, “ if we don’t fight them now, we cannot beat them later”. Paradoxically, the two greatest wars of the human race were the result of Progressives simply not wanting to take the hard road to lasting peace. FDR, the King of the Progressive movement, avoided entering WWII and he avoided taking hard actions against the rising power of the Nazis. It wasn’t just FDR. All of Europe wanted to avoid yet another war in Europe and besides, the German build up in the 30s was good for business. Sound familiar? Pay attention to Newsham’s comment about US CEOs.

You can’t wish bad times away. You cant make aggressive leaders and nations into pacifist with nothing more than words. Please, don’t get me started by suggesting economic sanctions can do the job. Take a look at the relationship between Japan and the US In the 1930s. How did that work out? You can make bad leaders and bad times go away with words, but you can use certain words to make sure these people understand where you stand. Newsham is correct in his statement the US should make it clear to China what the US is willing to do if China starts a war anywhere. Stand right in Xi’s face now, while he may still flinch, at least for a few years, or simply anticipate the time is coming when he and his nation will care less if someone stands in their face. Trump’s arm sales to Taiwan, that’s standing in Xi’s face. to the Telatubbies of the Left, that’s the actions of a crazy man and the Dragon, well, I would be it loves the taste of Teletubbies. Susan Thornton, that’s just one of the Teletubbies Newsham makes an exemplar of. Hard times folks. Hard times with no easy answers.

Cracks in the Armor:

I’m fairly certain I’ve gone down this next road before, but here we go.  Just how Nationalistic is China? Just how willing are 1.5 Billion people to go to war, a war that could set China back hundreds of years? Does Xi avoid the Taiwan, US, issue because he fears the public’s wrath? No. So, is the support of the Chinese People an issue that may prevent a war? Xi dosn’t fear the opinion people now, but how about in the future, the near future? Why is the issue of protest in Hong Kong so troublesome to Xi? Why not just go in and crush the issue? Newsham made a comment about ramifications on a global scale if China attacks Taiwan, more importantly, he mentioned something Xi will not admit. China has a growing population of people who have grown addicted to the Capitalistic  lifestyle. Yes, forty years ago, China set out to turn the Capitalistic concept into a weapon. They witnessed the flaws of true Communism, if it was true, in the Soviet Union. The plan became, “use the Western economy and our controlled involvement, to get the world addicted to China and it’s goods”. That planned worked too well. The leadership in Beijing moved so close to the flame of the West, some of the people in China turned into the Capitalistic  Colonialists China despised. Yes folks, there is a virus growing in China. It may be weak, but it continues to mutate and at some point, it will become deadly to Xi and his vision. Remember. I was the one who stated the Arab Spring was a virus. Freedom of thought, freedom of movement and freedom of expression, these are the foundations of humans. The US Founding Fathers got it right and Xi how’s this. China has cracks in it’s armor. They may not change the course of the nation in the near future, but the trend is there and it’s based on something Xi cannons afford to stop; money! China used the weapon of an open market to trap corporate America and others, and it worked. But, when they developed that “virus” they didn’t realize the most common theme of Science Fiction movies. The “Virus” was exposed to it’s own population. What does this mean? How does this explanation of China’s mistake impact a potential war with the US and others? Sorry, here is where the news gets real bad. The one person who knows the Virus is spreading inside of China’s population is Xi and his commanders. In reality, many of his own military’s senior leadership have already been infected. Time is not on Xi’s side. Waiting for Trump to leave office is not the answer. Waiting until the Chinese military is so superior to the US is a timeline too long. The clock is ticking and Xi knows it. Sometimes, you just have to fight! The trick is, be ready for that fight. Don’t be Neville Chamberlain, for that is what Xi is counting on. Stand up...get in his face before it’s too late.




https://www.jpolrisk.com/war-in-the-taiwan-strait-is-not-unthinkable-some-will-lose-more-than-others/