SO WHAT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH IRAN / ISRAEL?

So, lets keep this as simple as possible.

Iran's possibilities:

The only way Iran takes offensive action against Israel is if Iran's leadership feels they have nothing to lose.

Nothing to lose based upon a pending assault on their Nuclear Program.

Nothing to lose based upon a pending Arab Spring type of event inside Iran.

Iran may utilize the Israeli option to word off a internal governmental conflict.

The relationship between the Persian Nationalist and the Muslim Zealot is only getting worse.

Attacking Israel without inflicting a crippling blow to the mainland of Iran is the most likely tactical course of action by them.

A proxy war that can be ratcheted up or down by Iranian leadership would be the objective.

Keeping Israel from declaring " total warfare" on Iran would have to be the strategy to national survival. 

Having Israel inflicting casualties on non Iranian actors such as the Palestinians and the Lebanese would be a goal of the Iranian government.

Limiting the destruction inside Iran, thus preventing internal criticism would be another consideration.

In short; Iran has very little to gain and a tremendous amount to lose by initiating hostilities with Israel.

If their survival as a nation is at stake, then logically all bets are off.

Israel:

Lets start with the most basic concept.

Israel is never going to allow Iran to obtain a working nuclear weapon!

The most logical course of action would be for Israel to scale their actions, but unlike Iran who has little to gain by initiating hostilities, Israel will have to base their survival by initiating action against Iran.

A limited First Strike  with the honest warning of what Israel is willing and able to do if follow on attacks are called for is the most logical event sequence.

Iran may have to " save face" to some degree, but they will not risk their national survival on  "saving face".

Israel will have some level of acceptance for " Quid Pro  Quo " and they will probably make that known to the Arab  League and the US.

How bad things become after Israel's Limited First Strike, is entirely up to the lack of support from the rest of the world towards Iran.

Words are just that.... words and Israel will accept damning words for their actions.

I truly believe the Arab League and the rest of the world understands this.

Most of all so does Iran...

Who are their "real friends"?

In reality, they don't have any and this... Israel knows or should know.

The preverbal "woods" of this issue are deep and the odds of getting out peacefully are not very good.