FEEDBACK FROM A FRIEND.

This is from someone I've worked with in the Middle East in the past. He  has forgotten more about how the region really works than most "Talking Heads" will ever now.

I trusted him at all times and I never allowed myself to show concern with his suggestions or the suggestions of those he called friend.

What he says in this email is more profound to me than anything else I hear from others who I've worked with.

I have also great fears concerning Syria, no matter how things will turn.

Unfortunately with the lack of Western resolve and support on the ground or from the air, the Islamists are just going to gain ground for many reasons:

-First, the amount and level of repression by Assad's men is just

unbelievable:

Bombing whole neighborhoods and cities, then ethnic cleansing involving butchering entire families, gang raping of women to defile Sunni women and to scare others from rebelling and looting and destroying properties on a massive scale.

When any people are confronted with such horrors, it is just normal they will turn to religion and God.

Perfect ground for Islamism to grow and to fester into a Sunni Jihadi movement, even though the demonstrations started out as peaceful and mainly secular.  However Assad has tapped on the West fear of Al Qaeda and has rallied the Alawi sect to defend itself by attacking entire Sunni neighborhoods and committing crimes against humanity.  I heard on Al Jazeera that Damascus Has 25 000 Chabbiha (Thugs) and Aleppo 31 000, who go into areas to clean up, kill, rape and loot with no mercy, and have been out of control.

The Baath regime with its actions, is setting the seeds of Islamic fundamentalism, especially that the most dedicated fighters against Assad are Islamic fighters or guided by the Jihad conception of defending their houses and families.  Now of course you might say Al Qaeda will benefit from such scenario, especially that Al Qaeda or Jihadi groups are on the ground in Syria.

It should be mentioned that Jihadi groups were previously supported by the Syrian regime to go fight US troops in Iraq. Well guess what, the chicken are coming home to roost for the Eye Doctor-dictator.

-Second, the Shiaa (mostly very pro-Iran) have gotten stronger since the Iraq war:  Pro Iranian parties are controlling Iraq since 2004, courtesy of the US invasion of Iraq.  What ensued was an ethnic cleansing of Baghdad and Southern Iraq of major Sunni population groups, mostly done by the Mahdi Army and SCIRI. 

Of course the Iraqi Government was citing de-Baathification and fighting Al-Qaeda, which translate mostly into de-Sunnification (even though Baath was from all religious groups.)

When Iyad Allawi's alliance won the last parliamentary elections, Maliki used the de-baathification again as a tool to disqualify 3 or 4 winning candidates, and therefore turn the elections result to his advantage.

So much for democracy Iranian ayatollahs'style.

Same strategy was used in Lebanon to weaken the winning majority of Saad Hariri's bloc in the last parliamentary Elections.  Hizbollah and their cronies managed to reverse the elections'

results through threats and political

manipulations.  Again, same trend is showing: Ayatollahs' democracy in action.

Now, the Sunni world is wide awake to the Iranian threat, especially after the Syria's massacres, again of mainly Sunni populations (In Homs, Edlib, Daraa, Damascus countryside.)  and again they see the same trend from pro-Iranian Shiaa sectarian parties like in Iraq and Lebanon, which is the threatening or massacring Sunnis.  It is inevitable that there will be an awakening of Sunnis, and the armed faction of it will be definitely Jihadi, but not necessary Salafi. 

The GCC countries are definitely feeling the Iranian threat, and are definitely supporting the Salafi Jihadi trend, For simple reasons:

-First of all, the GCC countries are the prime target of Iran and in their direct line of fire.

-Ideologically speaking, Salafism is GCC made, nurtured and properly funded.

-For practical reasons, Salafi Jihadis will fight, especially that they consider the Shiaa as heretics  and blasphemous.

-Finally, if the Shiia fear something, it is the Salafis (who don't even consider the Shiaa as true Moslems)  and the grand Sunni awakening.

So having said that, the imbalance we created in 2003 by making the Shiia and Iran stronger, need to be counterbalanced in Sunni's eyes by a rise of Sunnis, especially Jihadis (We have to consider that the Sunni educated middle class of Lebanon and Syria are not fighters.)  Who will fight for the Sunnis?  It will be this hardcore Jihadi element who now see the Shiaa and Iran as their main enemy.

Like you said in a previous article, there is a Sunni-Shiaa war going on in the Middle east, staged and funded by Iran.

I don't think there will be a turn back to Sunni quietism.  Now the Sunnis are rallying, Syria was their breaking point, And became the rallying point.

History again is repeating itself in the Middle East!

My initial fears for the event in Syria are growing by the day.

He was responding to this email I sent him last week.

The classic, "damned if you do and damned if you don't" probably applies here.

Finding a balance for support of the resistance in Syria is so incredibly difficult.

The concept the islamist will simply wait to take advantage of the conflict seems to be a foregone conclusion now.

If it was difficult before to get the free world to support the movement, it will become nearly impossible now.

How factual the Islamist issue is will not be the problem.... perception is the issue and perception rules when it comes to the Middle East.

I would love to listen to Israeli leadership discussing the future of Syria.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA_RISING_ISLAMISTS?SITE=AP&SEC

TION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-03-21-18-03-33