THE RUMOR OF A “BLOODY NOSE” FOR NORTH KOREA:

I’m Shifting away from the Middle East to cover the other slice of the world that needs to be addressed. I’ve read a great deal about this “bloody nose” rumor and I will admit the rumor seems to be growing. So, the question becomes, is the rumor growing because the events required to make such operation take place are actually coming together, or is the rumor being spread, effectively I might add, to place even further pressure on the Chinese. Yes, I have not come off my theory of the Chinese having a plan to deal with the little fat guy when the time comes. The problem remains, when does China become convinced that time is here? When do the Chinese truly believe the US is going to pull the trigger? How do they judge the difference between a bluff and true pending action? Is it the movement of military hardware? What hardware would they need to see being put into place to change their mind? Wouldn’t they have to know the tactical requirements of the operation to properly evaluate what is moving? How do they truly judge between a bluff and a pending event? That is the formulary China must hope they can come up with. Given the possible outcomes of this so called, “bloody nose”, how sure must China be as they attempt to gauge the intentions of the US? Just how worried is the Dragon? It seems The Donald is getting the hang of this World Leader stuff. The Donald’s poker face is truly beginning to take shape.

Bloody Nose and the unforeseen partners:

Let’s move onto the issue of this “bloody nose” rumor. If it’s more than a rumor and there really is a plan for a tactical strike, and I would be you there is such a contingency plan, then what are the possible results? Now, there is a topic every so called “expert” is out to make money on as quick as they can. Can a limited strike on North Korea, a nation controlled by a madman, not have repercussions on the civilian population? Can the damage actually be held to a level most people are willing to accept? Can such an event take place on China’s border without the Dragon losing face globally? Would they just sit back and let it happen? If you have read my post for the past few years, then you know what I’m about to say. Yep, back to one of my favorite games.

What If?

What if Bloody Nose had a partner that no one was aware of? What if Bloody Nose had a role for the Dragon? I’ve said it for years now, but I will say it again and again. The Chinese have a plan for dealing with unstable leadership in North Korea. What if the US strikes the nuclear facilities in North Korea not with the intention of making them unusable for years to come, but for the purpose of neutralizing the immediate threat they pose, and this takes place as the Chinese move to replace the North Korean government? Sound outrageous? Not really, at least not to me. Let’s look at a few hard facts that both sides of this problem completely understand.

1.      The ultimate goal of China is to have the US’s excuse for having large military capabilities in the region nullified. Why would the US leave its forces in a unified Korea? How much pressure could China place on the US for wishing to do so? After the North Korean issue is resolved, why would China not strive to solve, peacefully, the issues in the South China Seas? Instead of threating war, just spend money to the point that nations like Japan and the Philippines can’t resist the profit line. Oh, and if you think that is not an approach for the Chinese, then you’ve not done your homework with the One Belt One Road initiative.  Simply put, remove the reason for US forces to be on the Korean Peninsula and at the same time, toss as much money as you can at the other nations in the region.

2.      From the US standpoint, especially the military leadership, how appealing is a plan that doesn’t call for the same mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan? A plan that doesn’t require an occupation force or even an offensive ground force. A plan that lets the US utilize the its existing forces inside South Korea to defend South Korea only? A plan that calls for Chinese ground units to move into North Korea, and doing so after the nuclear sights are struck and key North Korean Generals, who are own the Chinese payroll, make their move as well? Yes. A US strike with a simultaneous Chinese manipulated Coup?

The Danger with the Coup idea:

               As outlandish as this concept of mine may sound, stranger things have happened in this world. Yes, there are dangers to this idea. For one thing, the US military, more specifically the US Army, may not agree. I once remember a time when the US Army was absolutely adamant the war in Iraq, this time around ,could not be won with just the Air Force. Why, everyone who ever studied modern military theory knew you cannot defeat your enemy strictly from the sky. Pay no attention to that event called Desert Storm. How in the world could the nation justify a large, modern, standing Army if it’s wars were won from the air? I mean, how could the Army convince Congress to spend money on them?  Why, they might go the way of the Navy’s Battleship theory? Am I being sarcastic here? No. Not really! An Army of occupation is “old think”. Strike your enemy. Neutralize their ability to do you harm and then be prepared to strike them again if needed. That will be the future of the 21^st century warfare. That will be the economic reality of the West. So, you see, in the end, making a Coup plan with a potential rival just doesn’t make good investment sense for those who make BILLIONS on developing and selling military hardware. Yes, there is a danger to finding a smart way to deal with North Korea. The Chinese may end up having a stronger position on the issue of US military presence in the region.  On top of that, how in the world are the companies that depend on military hardware sales going to make money if someone finds a way to defeat a threat without dozens of Divisions of very expensive ground forces. Lives? Yes you may save lives with this new way of thinking, but all those corporate giants know full well brave young men and women will march into battle if called upon to do so. There is a new way for nations to defend themselves and marching patriotic people into a meatgrinder is not the way. A Bloody Nose sounds terrifying for one reason. Those that warn of such an event look at warfare with “old think”!