A POTENTIAL BENCHMARK EVENT IN THE ‘TUNISIAN VIRUS / ARAB SPRING’.

                                                                                                                   

Predicting several issues about the events of May 15^th was not terribly hard to do, so watching so many key leaders and nations act  surprised by the this day is somewhat puzzling.

The fact the evening news of CBS and ABC didn’t have today’s events even in the first fifteen minutes only add to the mysterious response.

I did see a lead story on Fox News, but I must admit the comparson of today’s actions with the 1973 War is a little over the top!

I can understand the philosophy of not wanting to overplay the violence, but Arab news media will and has made today’s events center stage.

I will admit the coverage of the violence by Al Jazeera seemed somewhat subdued given their coverage of the past four months.

Again, the issue of not wishing to inflame future actions by over coverage is understandable.

My prediction is as the funerals start at sunrise on Monday, the coverage, at least by Al Jazeera and other Arabic news media networks, will increase drastically.

As for how Israel has responded to the events of May 15^th,  I would speculate the IDF  has made fast adjustments in monitoring future hotspots.

The concept they were not prepared for the Syrian fence crossing is open for debate.

Knowing the protestors crossed a known minefield without killing a single member is interesting to say the least.

It would make one believe they had ‘help’ knowing the routes through the fields.

Israel was quick, as they should have been, to accuse Syria and Iran of having their fingers the violence in an attempt to distract the public from Syrian uprisings.

The media may be slow to cover today’s actions, but the Syrian and Iranian Governments and their state controlled networks surly will not be.

So what happens next?

Funerals for the dead will be heavily attended to include Syrian and Iranian media.

Follow on protest will be based upon the emotions of the protestors.

Remember, it’s not easy getting to the areas they made contact in today.

For those that used Gaza as a protest site, they will have to contend with Hamas security forces.

I am still convinced the concept of violence in Gaza and in Israel is not what Hamas, Fatah or the MB wants, not just yet.

The PA statehood issue is the goal and risking open confrontation with Israel in May is probably not the plan.

September’s attempted vote by the UN is a key issue from the viewpoint of the PA.

The MB is concentrating on elections in Egypt and taking on a potential conflict over the PA is not on their radar; again, not just yet.

The problem with this theory is Iran.

Iran may want to continue the violence from the standpoint of distraction.

Syria is in a critical phase of their revolt.

Ether more key groups such as the Kurds totally join the movement soon, or the movement risk loosing momentum.

My prediction is Iran will use these protest like a throttle if they can.

Here is the problem for Iran.

They are trying to ‘own’ this movement, but the Palestinian Youth Movement gets a vote.

Hamas and Fatah are not the only ones worried about these ‘free radicals’.

Iran may be able to influence their response by making sure some of them are killed at key moments in time, but they simply can not pick up the phone and tell them what to do.

As a matter of fact; Iran is on the Youth Movement’s Target List and Iran knows it.

Iran is playing with fire and they know it, but they don’t have a lot of choices right now.

Israel knows they are in a very difficult phase of the ‘Tunisian Virus’ but they have been planning for several months and counter moves can be expected soon.

Hint; Lebanon is about to come into even greater play!

It’s going to be an interesting week.