FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION DESIGNATION FOR THE CARTELS
CLOSE, BUT NO CIGAR
What happened? Why did President Trump pull back on the FTO designation for the terrorist cartels? His statement, Tweeter, indicated he was suspending the FTO designation at the "request" of the Mexican President. It seems the FTO process is complete, and the US President can pull the trigger whenever he wants, but for now, it's not going to happen. Does this seem strange? Does it seem like President Trump has flip-flopped again? What happened? What did the Mexican President, AMLO, say to convince the US President to turn off the event? Let me give you several options, with one or two scenarios being ones I support the most, and perhaps you will come to your own conclusion. That's what I enjoy the most. Giving people information and analysis, and then letting them come to their own conclusions.
Scenario 1:
The Threat:
Did AMLO receive the infamous Horsehead in his bed, figuratively speaking? Did the cartels and their supporter, a reality that has global reach, pressure AMLO into asking President Trump to at least postpone the FTO designation? Did those who work on the money side of the cartel business realize what the FTO status would do to their operations? The reality is, FTO status will have a devastating impact on the financial side of the terrorist cartels, and let there be no doubt, it's always about the money. If this cartel approach was the reason for the agreement between the two Presidents, then what pressure was placed on AMLO?
The cartels represent a business that is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars on an annual base. Just how deep does that money penetrate? Let me give you an example. The former Mexican Security Minister, Mr. Garcia Luna, a person I know about more than you can imagine, was arrested in the US. He had access to information at the highest levels and was one of Mexico's ex-president Calderon's closest confidants. If you need an example of just how deep the power of the cartel money penetrates government agencies, sadly, Mr. Luna is only one example.
Did the cartels tell AMLO, "if we are going down, you wait to you see who goes down with us"? Did AMLO call President Trump and tell him what the terrorist cartels told him? Did "others" in the cartel money business inform both of them what the price might be? Short version. Did AMLO and perhaps President Trump get threatened with what would undoubtedly be an unbelievable level of corruption? Was the FTO designation worth the damage that would be done?
Scenario 2.
Evo:
Why did Evo Morales leave Mexico for Cuba? One rumor revolves around him needing "medical treatment." The most persistent rumor, one President Trump most likely would support, is based upon President Trump asking AMLO to kick Evo out of Mexico. Think about it. How would it look for one of the most prominent, anti-US leaders in Central and South America to take up residence in the country that's the US's number one trading partner? If you need a reminder on who Evo is, read my post from November.
http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2019/11/evo-morales-saved-by-amlo.html?m=1
Are AMLO and Evo like-minded individuals? Yes. Do they both have a vision for the region, Central and South America, that is far different than the US? Absolutely. Is there bad blood in the US for Evo? Yes. How upset was DC when the word got out that Evo was greeted in Mexico as a comrade? Evo Morales is an enemy of the US, and for that enemy to be given a safe haven in its number one trade partner, well, that was most likely a hot topic in the White House.
Did President Trump call AMLO and demand Evo be removed ASAP? I would bet that the conversation took place. Did AMLO bargain with President Trump, because, that's how things work in this world? " Mr. President, the FTO designation is going to have a dramatic impact on my country. Is there anything that I can do that may change your mind"? If the conversation between President Trump and AMLO centered around anything, it was the impact on Mexico. So, did Evo Morales become a bargaining chip? Did his removal from Mexico at least buy AMLO some time? You need to remember, the vision of AMLO and Evo are very, very close. When we look at the overall status of several nations in Central and South America, keeping Evo marginalized is a massive issue in DC.
Scenario 3.
The Breaking Point:
If the FTO designation goes into effect, what impact will it have on the day to day lives of the good people in Mexico? At the end of the day, the people of Mexico will have two choices. They can support the designation, or they can oppose it. Paranoia of US operations and or intentions runs deep in Mexico's society. That fact holds especially true in Mexico's military. There may be a soft relationship between the two nation's militaries. Still, history is a hard lesson learned in Mexico, and you can rest assured when President Trump's tweet went out on FTO designation, the Mexican Military was one of the first groups to state their concerns to AMLO. The reality is, Mexico's population was and would be impacted by the FTO issue. The real question becomes, just how much of an impact would it have? How much would this reality have affected AMLO's discussion with President Trump?
Would the terrorist cartels take the FTO status without responding in any way? Would the Mexican government, a government that is deeply influenced by the money of the terrorist cartels, be aware of the possible reactions of the violent groups? Could AMLO have informed President Trump of the dangers he and President Trump might face, not just the financial exposure of those who support the flow of drug money, but the physical dangers? What if the terrorist cartels openly informed AMLO's administration they would increase the violence tenfold, and not just in Mexico? Most of what the terrorist cartels talk about is observed. The US's Intelligence Community, IC, is the best in the world when it comes to Signals intelligence. Would the US have been aware of a continuing threat of increased violence? Would this intelligence have been confirmed by AMLO? Just how much more social pressure can the Mexican society take? Would the FTO event have significant, unintended consequences, consequences not anticipated in DC? Did AMLO help drive home this potential reality? What if AMLO has made a comment to President Trump, " Mr. President. If the FTO designation takes place, the social structure of Mexico may collapse! You might be looking at tens of millions of Mexican citizens pushing on your Southern border"! If that statement sounds outrageous, I would recommend you read the conversations that took place back in 2011 on the topic of a potential Civil War in Syria. Would the FTO status push Mexico into a Syria Event? AMLO's passive policy will not be tolerated by his own military if the nation reaches the point of drastically increased violence. His Generals are already uneasy over his path to Mexico's future.
http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2019/11/amlos-rumor-of-coups-and-murders-is-it.html?m=1
Scenario 4.
The Economic Impact:
What would the FTO designation mean to Mexico's economy, an economy that is already in real trouble? Mexico's oil industry is one of the most poorly managed in the world, and the profits from this ineffective agency are shrinking by the day. Mexico's oil and gas industry is the backbone of AMLO's social giveaway programs, and to make things worse, the terrorist cartels are bleeding off the oil and gas at an alarming rate. Short answer, the economic future of Mexico is not a bright picture.
What would be the impact on another large section of Mexico's economy, tourism? When the cartel wars really started to heat up, nearly twenty years ago, Mexico's tourism industry took a direct hit. Destinations that were once considered garden spots for tourists suddenly became war zones. Prices were dramatically reduced in an attempt to keep the flow of tourists, and those lowered prices impacted Mexico's economy. Let Mexico be recognized by the US as a nation where identified terrorist groups seemingly control everything around them, and where does the tourist industry go?
FTO status has a powerful tool, the tool of financial actions. For years, the true intent of the US to go after the flow of money has been based upon small seizures. Imagine if entire banking networks were targeted by the US Department of Treasury? What would be the true economic impact on Mexico if the drug business finances were actually seized and destroyed? What amount of slack is left in Mexico's economic belt? At what point do the people of Mexico say, "enough is enough" and march on Mexico City? Can Mexico have its own version of the Arab Spring?
Did AMLO call President Trump and make his case for not pushing Mexico's economy over the edge? By the way, does anyone think the terrorist cartels would not compensate for lost revenue by taking from another segment of Mexico's society? Read about the kidnapping industry in Mexico. In the end, did AMLO plead with President Trump over the economic damage the designation would create?
Scenario 5.
Called his Bluff:
Andres Manuel Lopez, AMLO doesn't like the current government of the US. He is cheering for any of the left of center Democratic candidates to win in 2020. President Trump calls AMLO a friend. Well, if that's accurate, I would bet it's a one-sided friendship. AMLO's vision for not only Mexico but for governance, in general, is about as distant from President Trump's vision as you can get. When he heard of the FTO designation statement, his reaction was the real gateway into his intentions. The US would not be allowed to interfere with the internal issues of Mexico. That's not an uncommon stance for any nation to take, but in the case of Mexico, history adds emotion. Even the middle class of Mexico seemed troubled by the verbiage of the US President. Pride is a powerful tool in Mexico, and AMLO played to that point when he responded to President Trump's Tweet.
Did AMLO call President Trump and paint a picture the US President had not anticipated? Did AMLO stand up to the US? Did he take a few weeks to figure out what he would say and how he would say it? What could he have said that may have made the US President look for an offramp? AMLO had time to draft a second response to the FTO issue. He had time to talk to others about the subject. Just imagine if the US IC reported AMLO had been talking to China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Turkey, just to name a few. Did the US listen to the Mexican government's conversations with other nations after the announcement? There is never a time the US IC is not listening to anyone it desires. Imagine a conversation along these lines. " Mr. President. I will not stand for this intrusion into Mexico's affairs. IF the day has come where Mexico must turn to a new partnership, then I am willing to do so". Again, if you don't believe conversations like that take place, then you don't understand how the world works. Bottomline; did AMLO call the US President's bluff? Did President Trump find a political offramp in an election year by stating he had come to an agreement with his friend in Mexico?
What Scenarios do I support? Truthfully, I addressed all five of these potentials because I think it's a combination of all of them. Am I completely off base, nor have I come close to the real event that led to the postponed FTO designation? In the end, it doesn't matter. What matters is the reality that Mexico and it's overall stability must be a priority for the US. As the US starts year nineteen in Afganistan, someone better start to realize where the real threat is coming from. Let Mexico slide into a historic crisis, and the topic of Mass Migration will consume the day to day lives of the US population.
