NORTH KOREA OR RUSSIA? WHAT IS THE CLOSEST DANGER?

All right, the meeting in Moscow is underway. The opportunity to sit down and figure out what happened and why is underway. Was it all a ploy to get the Bromance story off the news? Regardless of what some of the US Democratic party members spew out, no, that is not why it happened. Did it happen because Trump and Putting miscalculated each other? Maybe. If that is the reason, then the fix will start with the meeting today. Did the Tsar sucker The Donald into thinking they were going to be buddies? Let’s pray that is not the answer! Did The Donald want to show the Tsar there is a new Sherriff in town? Again, let’s pray that is not the answer as well. Did the Russians and the US get suckered by Assad and his Persian Puppet Master? As I said last week, if that is true, then the Tsar will handle this event in his own way and the time of his choosing. One thing is certain. The stance of both nations has and will have two faces. One, the official press release version and two, the behind the scenes, “what do we do now”, version.

Talking.

Communicating! That is the key to having a chance of de-escalation. The difference is, the Liberal concept of communicating is the lopsided preference and the conservative concept is minimum communicating that may lead to unbalanced compromise. Negotiation. It’s an art form nearly lost in DC given the polarization of the US political system. Unity of effort is the key when it comes to engaging in difficult international discussions. The danger in the US is, neither party places such a concept on the priority list. Russia will come to the table with one voice, one message…… the Tsar’s message. The US media that supports the Liberal agenda will pounce on any and all statements Team Trump comes up with. Right behind that pounce will be the rush to the podium of power hungry Democrats who’s staff have told them they must give a statement as soon as possible. Yes, the US comes to a very dangerous conversation as a house divided. The liberal media will be more difficult for Team Donald to deal with than anything the Russians may say. Members of Team Trump looking unsynchronized along with stupid press statements made by the White House Staff, can only make this vital meeting more difficult.

Let’s wait to see what the “official” and “rumored” official results are. Sifting through the fake news will make this a very difficult task, but two levels of this story will come out.  

It’s a dangerous meeting and one that must be approached very carefully. But, here is the really bad news! It’s not the most important event that is taking place right now.

A Dragon’s handshake.

What does   the Syrian Eye Doctor and the Little Fat man in North Korea have in common? More than you might think. Both firmly believe their fate is being decided by others. Both believe the very nations that have openly supported them for years and in the process of ending their rule. That gives them a common bond that should not be overlooked. I can assure you, the intelligence community is paying attention to any and all communications between the two.

When Team Trump sat down with the Dragon, was a deal on North Korea really struck? The rumor mill says yes and the odds are some level of understanding was reached. The question becomes, just what version of that rumor does the little fat guy in North Korea believe? How paranoid can a paranoid madman become? Yes. The danger of this event is more disturbing than any play of words taking place between the US and the Russians.

On several occasions, I’ve written about the deal that could be struck over North Korea. Back in 2013, I addressed how the Dragon may find its own plan for North Korea and that plan might lead to a reduced US footprint in the region. So, here we go again. Let me play the “What if” game one more time!

What if the Dragon came to the table with a deal that said something like this. “We will remove the leadership of North Korea and replace it with one that is under our control. We will replace it with a leadership that is slowly going to address the issue of closer ties with South Korea. Over time, they will even talk of reunification! You on the other hand will agree to first reduce and then withdraw your forces from the Korean Peninsula. You will continue to talk to us on the topic of the South China Sea Lanes. We will reduce our posture with Vietnam and Japan and in the end, the Pacific will be what it should be, a trading mecca for the whole world”! Oh ya… “and the fuel in the South China Sea will be negotiated at a controlled price much like the concept behind OPEC”!

Would Team Trump take an offer of getting rid of the North Korean issue seriously if it meant reducing the US military’s footprint in the region at some point down the road? Yep!  You bet. Here is why. The process of removing the little fat guy is a short timeframe event. It’s somewhat of an overnight thing, perhaps even a single gunshot event! The process of reunification will take years and others will have a vote. Short answer, Team Trump may not be around to have to live up to that side of the deal! So, when the meeting was over and both sides walked away, the Dragon had one item to consider. How do they conduct regime change in North Korea? I would be willing to bet you they have a plan and that plan has been on the books for years. The Dragon’s Team then has to ponder if the Trump Team is able to live up to their side of the plan? One thing the Dragon will understand is the joy the people of South Korea will have when the North is no longer run by an insane family. The very idea of possible reunification will energize the liberal youth of South Korea and future South Korean elections will prove it. In the end, what would be the argument for the US forces to stay on the Peninsula? What would the Korean people accept? So, the upside of this type of deal is all there. The down side is the pull out of US forces may not happen for several years, but that is a blink of an eye in the philosophy of the Dragon.  

Sound outrageous? Well, you are underestimating the Dragon’s real goal. The Pacific with reduced US military footprint! Hold out your hand to them. Solve the North Korean issue and then bring your issues back to the table at a later date.

Crack in the Theory.

No, I’m not giddy with optimism on my theory of the meeting, but the alternatives are much uglier for the whole world. My theory has one very…very…… difficult, operational issue. How? How does the Dragon conduct regime change without having the whole thing go bad? How do you take the little fat man’s finger off the military switch? Well, here is how I would do it. Remember I said the Dragon most likely has a plan for dealing with North Korean Leadership? My plan is most likely close to their actual plan. Political Leaders are nothing without two things and one is physically more important than the other. One…the Support of the population. Don’t worry…he doesn’t have it! Those smiles you see are ordered, not spontaneous. Two… the support of the military. A Dictator may have the support of the military and by having this, force the appeasement of the people. History is packed with such events. So, what is the primary target of the Dragon’s regime change plan? Yep. The North Korean Military, but not the line units, but its leadership! What better Assassin could the Dragon chose than one, or more, of the Generals always standing next to him? Could these Generals be convinced to turn on the little fat guy? How has he treated them? How many have witnessed their peers being strapped to rockets for something they were blamed for? How many have families that long for more food, radios, cars…..you now…. a life! How many of them love North Korea more than they fear the little maniac? To bring down the leader of North Korea with as little bloodshed as possible, the Dragon needs those who truly control the military. Figuring out who those key Generals are and how to approach them, that is the part of the Dragon’s plan I’m betting has been around for years now. It could very well be, the right names and the right plans are all ready to go and it just takes word from the Dragon to make it happen. Just think if the Dragon let even part of this plan be known to Team Trump? Just let the Western Intelligence agencies get a hint of this level of planning and the White House will know.

Before you get your hopes up, remember what I called this section of the post. If I am sitting here, dreaming up this concept and it’s based on an age old lesion of betrayal, then why would the little fat man not come to the same conclusion? Who can he trust? Who has the Dragon approached? Have others approached his Generals? The South Koreans…the US?  Try to imagine the level of paranoia this insane man has right about now!  What keeps him from going out in a blaze of glory? What keeps him from taking the preemptive move? Does he take out his General Officer’s staff? I bet he hasn’t read Stalin’s book! Does he try to bluff Team Donald into backing down? What message does he attempt to send next? Just how dangerous is this madman right now? My guess is he is more dangerous that he has ever been. My guess is the Dragon knows this and so the warning to not push too hard is a genuine message. If there is a plan to get the North Koran Generals moving, the Dragon had better make up its mind quickly! The movement of troops to the North Korean Border is nothing new, but it’s also a great way to position your forces without making the little crazy guy jump the gun.

Yes, the meeting with Tillerson and the Russians is important, but the real danger is a Cowboys and Indian movies loving brat who thinks his best friend and bodyguard is about to do him in!