SNAPSHOT
WEEK OF 20 FEBRUARY 2016
A few years back, I
enjoyed posting a very simplistic weekly roundup of events in the Middle
Eastern Region with a concentration on what took place that really mattered. They
were short and to the point.
So, here we go again.
Turkey: Well, bad news
for the new Sultan. It appears NATO has sent him a very clear message that any
offensive action by Turkey into Syria will not invoke the special agreements of
the NATO pack. To be honest, I’m not sure that answer was not exactly what he
was looking for! The Ottoman bottom-line
has not changed in five years. They will not accept a Kurdistan on their border
and the more they resist this process, the more violence will take place inside
of Turkey. The real change has come from
the entrance of the Tsar. If the Kurds
can sit inside a protected location and continue events inside of Turkey, this scenario
will have to come to a head. Final note on this topic. The Russians have long
supported the Kurds, but the moment the Tsar no longer needs them, the second a
deal is struck with the Ottoman Sultan, the Kurds will once again be left high
and dry! Betrayal is the mark everyone
seems to place on the Kurds.
Saudi: Although the announcement
of Northern Thunder was the topic of the week, the conversation over the real
center of gravity for the region was held. Oil! Rumors of “agreements” then announcements
to the contrary. The Tsar needs oil prices to at least start showing signs of
rebounding and so when it was evident that Saudi and a few others were “talking”
about freezing production, the Iranians were forced to the table. Well, as soon
as the Saudi’s heard the Iranians might go along with frozen production numbers
for the rest of 2016, yep, you guessed it, “we are not freezing our production”! As I write this post, the price has fallen
below 30 dollars a barrel once again. Oh by the way, if you think that is great
news, then you probably are not aware of what the price of oil is doing to many
of the banks in the world. Loans based on profits…read about it…..it’s not the
good news many think it to be. Bottom line, the Saudis are stuck in a environment
that has very few options and the rumors of Royal Family having internal
disputes continue to grow.
Syria: It’s not the first time in the
five year uncivil war…. I don’t believe in the concept of a “Civil War”……there
is nothing civil about war…..but, back to my point! It’s not the first time the
utterly confusing issue of who is on whose side has popped up. One group is
attacking another group… one group is joining an alliance with other groups….
and so on and so on!
Syria….. the modern day version of Mad Max and the Thunder
Dome! To top that off, right in the middle
of the display of insanity, we witness, on YouTube of course, the Russians
carpet bombing areas held by “ Terrorist…. Allies…..Neutral groups”….take your
pick what you call them. As complex as
Syria has become, the real danger no longer extends from the issue of Assad. As
I stated under the heading of Turkey, the real threat to the region and Europe
revolves around the Kurds! Yes, the
Ottoman Sultan has officially heard from NATO leadership, but, does NATO, Europe
/ US / stand by and watch if the Tsar and the Sultan really come to blows? The correct answer is, they can’t. As much as
the US administration would love to have it all go away, it’s not going to
happen, not any time soon. Roosevelt was
a progressive Liberal and he reluctantly took the US to war. President Obama is most likely having
nightmares of becoming the modern-day Roosevelt. That may sound dramatic, unfortunately
it has the chance of being true.
Weekly conclusion:
Many things are taking place in many parts of the world and
most of it centers on the Middle East. What
was once a uncivil war has moved to the gates of a Religious war and even that
concern is not the cornerstone of the threat.
An unstable Ottoman and a determined Russian Leader are the ingredients
for the real world danger.
