NORTHERN THUNDER……… A TECHNICAL REVIEW.
Well, I did just what I said I would, I worked up a basic review of
what Northern Thunder would require to execute and how complicated the feat
would truly be. The problem is, I never
hit “send” on the post! So, here it goes
today.
Let’s start by looking at the numbers released in the
statement by Saudi.
350K troops
20K Tanks
2500 Warplanes
460 Helicopters.
Well, to say that would be impressive would be an
understatement. Do the numbers seem a little “inflated”?
What government doesn’t “inflate” statements that come out
of political leadership’s mouths?
For the sake of argument, an argument that will not be believed
for a single minute in Moscow or Tehran, let’s look at what it would take to
pull this size of a force together.
Troops: Before troops are prepared to go into operational
mode, they need a buildup area; a place to prepare.
The idea that a single location could hold such a force is impossible.
Having said that, in reality, the Saudis most likely didn’t intend to imply the
entire “Force” would execute out of one military base in Saudi. How many actual,
“boots on the ground” members will take part in the exercise, in Saudi? That
number is probably not even a 10th of what was stated. The support
of such a force would suck the entire region dry of water, food and fuel and
that is just while they are in buildup phase.
20 Thousand Tanks: Wow!!
I’m still not sure where that number came from. If we did the math and counted
up all the tracked vehicles in all 20 countries taking part in Northern
Thunder, it might come up to a number 1/3 of that! Now, the issue of preparing,
moving and employing that many “tanks”………..well……. we could go on an on!
2500 Warplanes: You will fill parking ramps of
every airbase in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC as well. Pilots, and the high-end need of their care, maintaince
facilities…the list goes on and on!!!
460 Helicopters: To
save time here………..Ditto!!!
Again in the defense of Saudi’s statement, it is very likely
the numbers given in the press release are somewhat inflated. It is even more
likely the intent was not to state this total package was going to be
functional on Saudi land; although there will be some, especially in the region,
who think this is true. The fact of the matter is, the concept is what could
the 20 nations bring to the planning phase if everything they had was accounted
for?
When the Gulf States announced the formation of what many
are calling the Arab NATO, the first response from anyone who ever worked
military plans was less than supportive.
“Force on Force” training……. Combined Arms Operations….. Integrated
/ multinational, logistical support; these are just some of the major issues
this announcement encountered.
Could such a monumental task have been accomplished in the 18
months since the announcement? Highly unlikely.
In reality, this process would take years!
Now, did the baseline document of the Peninsula Shield Plan
become a great starting point?
Yes.
Does it account for the expedited timeline that would lead
to such an announcement?
No.
So, what is Northern Thunder really going to be?
Is it an excuse to assemble a force to react to the events
in Syria?
It could be and it would not be the first time that tactic
has been used in the region.
Could Northern Thunder be a dry run for the option of going
into Syria?
Again, it could be and such an event would be highly sought
after by the military leaders taking part in the event.
Force generation! A concept that has had little, practical, real-world
exposure in the region, at least at the level a Northern Thunder scenario would
require.
At the sake of sounding way too egotistical, given I’ve seen
our side mess this process up more than once, taking on such an event such as
the described Northern Thunder without the support of the US / West …….well…..that
would make the task all the more difficult.
So, if they are attempting to do so, the question may just
be, do the Russians believe the US is not really supporting the event? If you read Sputnik.com… you may get your
answer.
So, there you have it. My simple attempt to look at the
challenges of such a monumental announcement as Northern Thunder.
And to finish off review of Northern Thunder, here is an
interesting thought.
What if the events in Yemen were not just about keeping the
Persians from getting a foothold to Saudi’s South? Saudi doesn’t have a NTC, (National
Training Center) and they do not execute full scale “War Fighters” for the
purpose of Combined Arms Training; other than scripted displays for leadership
to watch. So, what if Yemen was not just
a counter to Iran, but a live fire, training area to hone the skills needed two
years from the time the Yemen operation started; skills needed to take action
in Syria. Just how many “bugs” have the Saudi’s worked out with their involvement
in Yemen? How many problems have been addressed; problems that come from
working with other nations, other forces? Just my closing thought of the day.
Part Three:
I’ll talk to the issue of what would need to happen to have
Northern Thunder really take place.
That’s if I remember to post it tomorrow. J
