PUTIN AND TRUMP. THE BIG SIT-DOWN.

          First off, how convenient the US DoJ announces the indictment of twelve Russian “agents” in the on going Mueller investigation just has The Donald is about to sit down with Putin. That’s not what I want to talk about today, but in the end, the down fall of the US may very well be its own decaying, political  process. Now, back to the topic at hand.

          Some of you may be tired of hearing me say this, but here it goes again. The core reason the Russians are supporting Iran is to counter the movements that have taken place in Europe/ Eastern Europe since the fall of the Soviet Union. NATO. NATO is the reason Putin feels driven to create pressure in other areas of vital interest to the West. Does Russian need a warm water port in the region in order to defend itself? No. That’s ‘old think’. That’s Cold War era warfighting logic. Look, the down and dirty issue is in plain view. The Russians are applying pressure in other locations just like every other Super Power has done. So, the concept of them trying to influence the US election process is a given, or at least, it should be. But, I digress. Two of the most powerful men in the world are going to sit down on the 16^th of July and the future of the Middle East is going to be a major topic, not the only one and not the most important one, but a topic that is important none the less. Now, once again, let me make a statement I’ve made over and over again. The fate of Iran’s actions in Syria and the region are not being decided by Tehran. Their fate is something they demand to hold themselves, as any nation would. What is said between Putin and Trump will be relayed to Tehran and it will be up to Tehran to form a perception of what Moscow tells them. Do they believe them or not? If the message from the Russians is one Iranian leadership cannot accept, then what? Does Moscow tell Tehran, “Don’t worry. Just because we told the US you would do something, doesn’t mean you really have to comply”! The Art of “contract / proxy / fighters is a hot topic in Russia and Tehran has it’s own version with it’s Shia groups, but in the end, Tehran will have to trust Moscow or not. How Tehran responds to the Trump, Putin meeting is the real concern, but not the only one.

Israel gets a vote:

          Okay. Here we go again. I’m not a true broken record, but I’ve said this time and time again. What Moscow and the US decide will not change the commitment of Israel to defend itself. A nation that cannot fight a war for weeks or months in reverse, a nation that cannot move its population out of the battlefield, is a nation that will not decide it’s fate based on the words of two men who are foreigners. Israel’s size determines Its posture. Israel’s size determines Israel’s preemptive attitude. The odds are, the US side of the discussion with Russia will not be based upon keeping Israel out of the loop and that is a huge difference between the US and Russian position on this meeting. Moscow has no reason to risk war with the US over Iran and the US knows any war between Iran and Israel would end with Iran being unable to support any further “intrusions” throughout the region. The bonus for the Russian would be the spike in fuel prices and the spike would be huge, if only short-lived.  

The Real Story.

          Contrary to what the US media consistently states, Trump has a staff that understands the true issues of the Russians. The fact that one of the political parties in the US has been executing a scorched earth campaign to unseat Trump becomes a real danger at this point. Does Trump feel pressed to show a “hardline” with Putin? Does he talk a great battle for the press to pick up on, but talk “business” after the cameras are off? What world leader hasn’t taken this approach? If the US stance becomes, “we support Israel, and this includes if they decide to go to war with Iran, but we are also changing our minds about our commitment to NATO”, then how does Moscow react? What is more important, Iran’s fanatical, Religious Leaders, or Eastern Europe, the old Soviet “Buffer Zone”? Is Trump clever enough to figure out how to trade support for NATO, or the perception of trading, for a Middle East that is no longer dominated by the threat of Iran’s Fanatics? The American Embassy ordeal created long memories in the US and Iran is still ruled by the fanatics that made that event happen.

          So, here is the short version of what is about to take place. Trump is going to sit down with Putin. The topics have been reviewed and statements are ready, but Trump almost never goes by the script. The discussion will go in whatever direction Trump takes it and Putin will follow with little or no response other than his paten pending grin. The US wants Iran’s influence in the region removed. Tehran will resist at all cost. Putin wants to see NATO’s stance in Eastern Europe reduced. The question becomes, can the two leaders come to some level of a “deal”, and if there is a “deal”, what will Tehran’s response be? Yes the left is foaming at the mouth in the US. Yes, they want to unseat Trump and reestablish the old way of thinking in DC, but two very visionary, powerful are going to meet in a few days and nobody knows what the outcome will be.