Wednesday, July 18, 2012

















ASSAD IS NOW BACKED INTO A PHYSICAL CORNER!!!




Well, if the panic mode inside the Assad regime was not high enough, it just
got much worse.

Besides panic, it is now personal for Asssad. His Brother-in-law was killed.


A few issues that make this event more than just significant and exciting
for the media to cover.

1.  The Brigade of Islam quickly took credit for the attack; a  group that
is perceived as a arm of  Islamic / AQ/ radical movement.

    The link between such organizations and the FSA, rebel movement, has
been talked about for months, but this will make the issue bowel to the top.

2.  It's very clear now this campaign has been very well planned and it's
possible the "infiltration" concept is a key aspect of the Damascus attack.

3.  The total loss of confidence of internal security operations, is an
overwhelming issue for Assad's inner circle.  What Guard or groups of Guards
do you "really" trust?

    The supporters of Assad, who are in Damascus, must be trying everything
in their power to get out of the city.

     How would you like to be a Sunni, after the fall of Assad, who is found
by the Rebels to have supported Assad?

     I can guarantee you, someone has as "list" of names / families /
associates, even if it's built on speculation.

4.  The battle in Damascus is very possibly a killing blow to the Syrian
economy.

Who is trading in Damascus in the past three days?

What business are open?

If you are an Assad supporter and you have no confidence who is walking the
streets of Damascus right now, how do you open the doors to your business?

5.  What is Iran thinking right now?

    Does this event drive a wedge between the Iranian advisors to Assad and
the Syrian military leaders?

   Did Iran lose KIA / WIA / in the bomb blast?  ( Don't trust the Syrian
news for the actual body count.)

6.  How many Russians are in Damascus and what is Russia's plan to get them
out?

    Perhaps the Navel flotilla is actually a NEO / Noncombatant Evacuation /
mission?


What does Assad need to do?

 First and foremost, he has to show he controls Damascus or has the ability
to stop the assault and he has to do this without destroying the capital of
Syria!

  It is and it will continue to be virtually impossible to control the
streets of the city without a curfew!

 Without one, at least in the sections of the city where the fighting is
taking place and that appears to be just about anywhere now, Assad's forces
will have no idea  who is just out walking and who is "scouting".

The problem becomes the impact of a curfew.

It is equivalent to admitting the city, the capital, is under siege.

The perception of advantage goes completely to the rebels.

What might the result of this event be?

Assad stands the chance of actually losing this conflict.

The spread of panic can lead to an uncontrollable climate in the entire
city.

 With the loss of his Brother- in-law, Assad now has anger, blood revenge,
on his mind more than ever.

Striking back while he still can is quickly becoming his only option.

Homs or other rebel strongholds are in great danger.

If Assad was ever going to utilize his full military capacity, it will be
now.

He can't fight a Tank and Fighter / Bomber campaign in Damascus, well..
maybe tanks, but he can turn lose his entire arsenal as a revenge event.

Homs is a logical target.

Assad is now a very illogical person.

The rest of the bad news comes from the rebels.

As I said yesterday, it's one thing for young men to get caught up in the
"glory" of shooting and fighting, it's far more complex to understand when
to stop killing and fighting.

Do the rebels, FSA, have an " endgame" ?

What is the plan if Damascus really was to fall within the next few days?

Might last question and the one I always come back to.

What will the Tsar do and what will Iran do?

Was the bombing of the bus in Bulgaria  simply a coincidence?  
Remember my theory of Iran's "Red Line" for Syria.

If Assad falls, so does Hezbollah in Lebanon and so do the dreams / plans of the Persian Empire.


other-in-law-and-top-Syrian-officials-killed-in-Damascus-suicide-bomb.html

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