IRAN AND THE RUMORS OF CONFLICT

Well, my attention is once again pulled back to the Middle East. I’ve tried to stay focused on issues South of the US’s border, but it seems the hottest spot in the world is getting a little warmer. Is there truly a pending event about to take place in the region? Is that possible event based upon US and Iranian tensions? My gut tells me yes, but, it’s the how, why and when, that seems to be the most important items at the moment.

Why:

            Why does it seem something is about to take place? Well, first off, because US officials are saying they might and in my old line of work, that’s a big “hint”! Next, the US Department of State issues an evacuation statement to nonessential US citizens in Iraq. Then we see the withdrawal of the Spanish frigate. Now, this one is strange given the other indicators show a likely target area of Iraq. What would make the Spanish want to pull out? Seems like they don’t want to be part of something. So, it’s not about their safety. It’s about their willingness to be involved in something they may not support. Okay, next step. The Germans announce they are pulling their support from operations in the AOR/ Area of Operations Iraq. What were they providing, basically Special Operations to include intelligence support. Now, do they pull back to the Main Operating Bases / MOBs/ or, are they leaving the whole AOR? Good question, but the point is made. Germany doesn’t seem to want to be involved as well. On top of all of this, you place the flow of information on US “strike forces” being sent into the AOR , the meeting in Bagdad just last week and you have a few more “clues”.

Why / Part Two:

            Alright, we see the tension between the US and Iran has increased recently and some would even say it’s done so dramatically, but is there a reason why? Has something changed? Let’s assume the Mullahs decided it was time to up their game by deciding to announce certain areas of the nuclear agreement were going to be discontinued. Why? Because the real biting part of the oil sanctions kicked in, that’s why.  Let’s assume that decision was made several months ago and let’s assume we picked up on this decision by intelligence methods. Let’s also assume the Mullahs decided to up the pressure around the AOR and that included moving assets into areas that could threaten US forces and US interest. Again, assume the US saw this taking place. Folks, this is typically how a pending crisis like this unfolds.

            The sun comes up on a particular morning and the US President’s threat brief is given. In this brief the issue of Iranian decisions is reviewed along with Iranian actions. It’s at that point in time the President and his key staff agree, we would hope, that a reaction to Iranian events must be planned. That process typically starts with a warning order to identified units and assets based upon an existing Course of Action / COA/ Central Command has come up with incase of actions against Iran.  Once that process is underway, a deliberate messaging campaign is usually initiated…..I stress…….usually! The purpose is to begin the process of influencing the enemy’s actions and to let them know you are aware of what they are doing. Hint…you don’t do this by Twitter…. or at least the US didn’t use to do it that way….times change. At the same time, the process of informing partners and allies gets underway. Now, there is always levels of this awareness. Those that are going to be potential players in the event are drawn in first and at a much deeper level. Those that need to know in order to show open support, but have no potential play in the event, those that could be impacted by the event but have no need to know any level of detail, that makes up the bulk of what types of notification needs to be accomplished. Once that process takes place, the media is usually all over the story, unless they are on their daily mission to prove The Donald is a spy.  Disrupting to what might need to be accomplished? You have no idea!

            Here comes the tricky part. As a potential event is being planned, it is anticipated the enemy or other enemies become aware of what you are up to and with that, they typically begin to change their options. In this case, strike first, but not in a way anticipated….the four oil tankers and the pipeline events. Okay, without going on and on, there you have it, a down and dirty as to why we are seeing this event unfold. Let me jump into the next core issue? How!

How:

            If we assume something is going to happen, then how might it take place? Are there indicators of how this event might take place? Hold on because this answer is only addressing one side of the event. The other side is determined by the opposition.

            If you look at the assets in the AOR, the ability to strike Iranian targets in Iraq already exist. Here is the other cold hard fact, the US doesn’t need all the assets to be in theater to strike what appears to be a select group of targets. By the way, don’t just count US assets. You may want to remind yourself who has been pounding Iranian units in Syria for the past several years. Anyway, if Iranian controlled proxy groups, groups controlled by the IRGC  and al-Qud forces, have been moved to pose a greater threat to US forces and allies in the region and that change is deemed unacceptable to US leadership, then you have the key ingredient as to “how” the event might take place. Again, do not forget the trip to Bagdad late last week. That message was most likely very clear. “If Iranian assets on your land don’t change their current status, they will be struck and we will not notify you or ask for your approval”. That was the message, I can almost guarantee you.

Tactics:  

If Iranian assets in Iraq truly are the targets, how would they be struck? From the air and good luck to any anti air units that attempt to stop that action. Is that it? Would that be the extent of this pending operation? Let me answer that question by asking one. What else would the US need to do? Would ground units be required? No, with the exception of perhaps some Special Operators to verify targets, but even that is not truly necessary. So, this pending event could be much like the IDF actions in Syria? Yes, only the IDF / Israel doesn’t telegraph their intentions. Would it be larger than the last two rounds of US actions in Syria? Most likely, but that would be determined by the number of Iranian supported units in a position to threaten US operations. So if it seems like this pending action is not much different than the past few executed by the US and Israel, then what is all the fuss about? Intel…..folks…..intel!  Have the Mullahs decided to respond if their operations in Iraq are struck? You can bet the US and its allies have a good idea what has been talked about inside the halls of Tehran. Remember, the enemy gets a vote. If initial targets are struck with the same tactics as in the past, but the indicators are the enemy will respond this time around, then the tactical capability to respond to that reality must be planned for, thus, the increased number of assets brought into the AOR. In a way, that scenario has already taken place with the oil tankers and the pipeline. Look. It’s one thing to smack a few units inside Syria, but to attempt to change the course of actions of Tehran in Iraq, that is a very different and much more complex problem-set. 

Follow on targets? Have they been planned for? You bet they have. Are they based on the possible courses of action / COA’s the IC has picked up on from Tehran. Most likely. Never forget this. Conflict is an issue of potential escalations. The enemy gets a vote. Just how desperate are the Mullahs? By the way, the rumors of the Russians moving to neutralize the Iranian influence in Syria are more than rumors. Stop to think about that for a second. Sanctions that are biting worse than ever before, a public that is still fuming over the lack of response to the nationwide floods and Moscow finally making their play to make Syria’s future fit Russia’s goals……..not the Mullahs. That’s a recipe for real…real…. Trouble. Does that change the tactics? Does that mean the US could be looking at another Iraq or Afghanistan? I don’t think so, but you never know what the pressure is from those that do not want to feel irrelevant. If it’s a repeat air show, where does that leave the future budgets for the ground forces? Think that doesn’t come into play? Then, you don’t know DC. Yes, the US and allied forces must be ready for a disproportionate response from Tehran. Yes, that would require additional assets into the AOR, but that doesn’t mean the tactics will change. Bottom line, nobody needs ground troops if this goes South. 

When:

I can remember sitting in the sandbox for month after month with each passing day having a rumor the war was going to start……..Desert Storm. Then one day………it did.  So when does this potential event take place? US citizens have been warned to leave Iraq…not the region, so that’s interesting. Those that don’t want to be part of the event have started to pull out. Additional assets are already operational in the AOR. ( Don’t forget the Israelis). So, when? Answer….that’s a good question. I’ve seen these types of events go write up to the wire and then get called off. I’ve seen them take months to actually execute, but that was based on a major forced buildup. Here is my bet. The “window” of operations was based upon communications. First the communications with Moscow over what the US is willing to do and then secondly, the communications that went from Baghdad to Tehran last week………along with the urgent message from Qatar to the Mullahs as well.  Having said this, here is what truly matters. Just how desperate are the Mullahs? Just how hopeless do things seem to be. I tell you, you cannot underestimate the issue of Moscow pulling back on it’s open support to the Mullahs. At the end of the day, what Moscow wants is the ability to influence the flow of oil and gas in the region. The dreams of the Persians are meaningless to the Russians. What’s in it for them or, what price is Moscow willing to pay to save the Mullahs? Here is one last issue to ponder and I’ve said this time and time again. The Mullah’s vision for Iran may be an All or Nothing approach, but what about the leadership of the IRGC / al-Qud, Regular Army? Is that their vision. Are they willing to get into a confrontation that could lead to the destruction of everything Iran has going for it? If it gets that bad and you have “friends” in Moscow and or DC who are willing to let you be the next top dog, do you jump off the edge of the cliff for the sake of the old men in Tehran. Are we close to that point? Could be.

 Note:The IDF may have held back on this last round of rockets from Gaza, Iranian supported, for a reason. Perhaps they knew a much more important event was just over the Horizon. Does The Donald’s Son in Law, Boy Wonder, get to put his “Deal of the Century” on the table first? If so and Tehran knows that, then more oil tankers better get ready for rough times. Oh ya…Keeping the future King in Saudi in check while this goes on………..now there is yet another danger zone, but that is a story for another day.