ISRAEL AND IRAN…………….WHAT NEXT

The IRGC actually fired into Israel? The words used over and over that day were, “ This is unprecedented”. Good grief, when I was interviewed, even I used the words and we all know how I hate to sound like the “Talking Heads”! Here is the problem. It was unprecedented. It was a huge step by the Iranians and it did take the many by surprise. Hezbollah….Hamas or about a dozen or so other groups might be expected, but the IRGC? Yes…… that was “unprecedented”.  So, ask yourself the one question I always go back to. Why and when you start thinking about that, add in, “why now”?

What changed?

               If we can work on, “what changed”, then we will have a better shot at solving the “why” and “why now”. BiBi went to Moscow and as I predicted, returned to Israel just in time to see an “Unprecedented” IDF strike inside of Syria. What words were exchanged in Moscow? What level of trust did the old men in Tehran have as they watched this meeting take place? Trust is a four letter word between the Russians and the Iranians and most of us know it. BiBi comes home and Iranian assets throughout Syria are attacked. BiBi comes home and the “unprecedented” attack by Iran on Israel takes place? So, what changed? Everyone gets to have an opinion, so here is mine. Iran changed and that is a fact. Iran’s leaders, perhaps not all of them, decided the “relationship” between the Russians and the Israelis had reached a point that something had to happen to up the game…… something….. “unprecedented”! Iran has lost it’s patients with the behind the door conversations between the Russians and the Israelis, especially when the topic is Iran’s actions in Syria. Some of Iran’s leadership convinced themselves the time had come to up the stakes for both Israel and Russia, so IRGC rockets were fired into Israel. By the way, there is one huge problem with this Iranian theory, upping the “game” when you are playing with Putin and BiBi is a dangerous gamble. Most of the Iranian sites in Syria understand that now. Once again, where was the superior, invincible, Russian anti-air assets? How is it the IDF, once again, flew their missions with impunity? Once again, how is Tehran supposed to read this lack of Russian support? Allies, right? Well, only here and there.

               What we may have witnessed was the next phase of decay between the Russians and the Iranians. Iran sees the Russians and the Israelis talking and decides to up the game. In response, the Russians continue to sit on their weapon systems as the IDF pounds the Iranian positions in Syria. Where is Assad in all of this you might ask? Don’t bother. He continues to be what he has been, an Eye Doctor siting in a room, waiting for someone to tell him what is going on. The fact of the matter is, the Iranians pushed the envelope and the response was one they were not militarily prepared for.

Conversations:

               For all the parading and media events the Iranian military loves to hold, do the leaders of this military truly believe they can confront the IDF? Those that understand warfare, well, they know the answer. Nipping here and there at the edges of a huge opponent is one thing, but standing toe to toe with them, that would be irrational. When the decision was made to fire into Israel from positions the IDF knew were Iranian controlled, who was in favor of that order and who knew it could be disastrous? Did some of the Iranian field commanders anticipate what might happen and insure their troops were away from potential target sites? I would have. Just who was in on this decision? Soleimani? Did Tehran call him and say, “fire on the Israelis”? If so, what was his response? He is one of the only Iranian military commanders that would be allowed to question the orders from Tehran. Was the strike his idea? I bet not. What was the conversation between senior military leaders when they were away from the old men of Tehran? Was the Iranian military leadership onboard with this “unprecedented” event? Would the risk of total destruction of the Iranian nation be worth following the words of an old man who has never lived in combat? Is his vision, worth the lives of countless Iranian military members and civilians? The answer could be hidden in what didn’t happen. When militaries are in the initial phase of conflict, two things can happen. 1. The conflict can escalate. 2. The conflict can disengage. The disengagement can happen for one of two reasons. 1. One side decides the confrontation is too risky. 2. The two sides quickly come to terms. In this case, option 2 would not happen. Yes, the phones may have rung, with one call being from Moscow and the other from DC. Yes, BiBi may have told Putin the event would be limited…..as long as the Iranian response was acceptable. I don’t believe the phone calls made a difference. I’m betting the disengagement took place because of reason number 1. Once Iran’s military commanders witnessed the speed and effectiveness of the initial IDF strike, at it was just the initial, I would be willing to bet the phone did ring , or the door did open with Generals walking into the old man’s room. “ Do we really want this? Are we really prepared for a war with Israel”? That was the core of the conversation. The IDF pounded Iranian positions in Syria and then……………..nothing!

Give the guy a bone:

               It had to have been difficult to have this conversation with the old men in Tehran. Something had to be placed on the table to provide incentive. The Iranian military leaders knew the US Embassy move was within two weeks. They knew the anger they could leverage inside Hamas. They new the IDF had warned for the protest to not turn violent. A few well placed, Hamas radicals and Iran could turn the event into a world wide condemnation of Israel…..once again. Yes, the Iranian military commanders tossed the old man a bone. Yes, they understood they stood at the precipice of disaster if they responded to the IDF strikes. The Embassy event was the compromise. From the Iranian/ Persian / viewpoint, why not let a few dozen Palestinians be shoot in order to save the Iranian militaries honor. What does the Iranian military rebuild in Syria? What deal are the Russians willing to accept to walk away from Iran’s dreams in Syria? If you thought Tehran was paranoid before the IDF actions, you’ve not seen anything yet. In the mind of the Tsar, why not let a few Persians be blown up, if it means getting your way somewhere else. Pecking order…..it’s all about the pecking order for being killed.