I found this article interesting from the standpoint of why
the Rebels would continue to spread the rumor of Assad's demise!!!
I would agree the overall goal is to paint a picture of
helplessness, but I think the author missed who the real "audience"
was and is.
If you need someone's support base to give up, you need to
convince them the organization or person they are backing is beyond help.
Now, in Assad's case, at the non nation state level, this is
difficult to accomplish.
Most of his "localized" support fears his fall
more than they fear abandoning him.
From the beginning of this conflict, I have said Assad's
real danger was his largest support base, Iran
and Russia .
Developing stories about his death are simply not going to
impact his support from his two nation state supporters.
Breaking the will of those living near him who support him is not going to bring about the
fall of Assad!!!
Rumors backed by rumors are simply not going to impact
outcome of Assad's rule.
As Mr Weiss comments about the battle for Damascus, I think
he has forgotten one important trait of conflict that often leads to a rapid
change of events; moral!
It's one thing to fight door to door in the Northern
sections of your country always somewhat confident that the conflict will have
a positive ending and you will go back home soon!
But, when you are fighting door to door, after two years of
nonstop contact, and you are doing so in your own capital, then morale becomes
what is commonly known in military studies as " The Center of
Gravity"!!!!
Fighters, even solders will only fight to the point of
broken morale!!!
At that point in time, even a superior enemy will often put
down their arms, leave the battlefield or simply surrender.
History is full of such events.
For planning purposes, the West and the GCC hope the battle
for Damascus is
a lingering event.
You see, a "lingering event" gives everyone hope a
solution can be formulated.
Simply put, a lingering event buys everyone outside the
conflict........time!!!
I'm have very little confidence toward the end of this Civil
War in Syria the fall of Damascus will
"linger"!!
Battles and Wars are won and lost based on morale... not the
morale of the political leaders still sleeping sound in their plush beds,
eating full meals and gaining weight!!
No, wars and Battles are lost when those who bleed and
scream and get up after falling for the thousandth time no longer have the will
...... morale to do it again!!!
Do not set your planning clock based upon the troops left in
Damascus and
the superior weapons everyone seems to fixate on.
Set you planning clocks based on the conversations taking
place at two o'clock in the morning as exhausted Syrian troops feebly defend
what is left of Damascus !!
Weapons do not win conflicts..... Humans do... as long as they have morale and hope!!
http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4952493325943547&pid=1.7&w=226&h=151&c=7&rs=1
