THE TACTICAL SIDE OF THE CONFLICT:

Tonight, I will go into detail as to the tactical issues Iran would face confronting Israel.

I will address both First Strike and Retaliation issues.

On Thursday, I will cover Israel's side of this topic.

IRAN'S TACTICS:

First Strike / Limited:

The blinding obvious would be the utilization of Hezbollah and other radical group's capabilities; thus reserving actual Iranian assets for counter actions or escalation activities.

Depending on the skill level of the unit members, a night operation would be the most dramatic and cause the highest level of anxiety in Israel.

As for the type of attacks, if Iran is wishing to build the event based upon the concept of Israel responding disproportionately, thus providing Arab Public sentiment behind the attacks, then  we would see the typical rocket, mortar actions but at a much higher level.

 Again, tactically speaking, this would allow Iran to develop an scaleable conflict while at the same time attempting to control the public support in the Arab world.

The attacking units have learned a great deal since the events of 2006 and 2008.

Israel's ability to overwhelm and neutralize the attacking units would be a difficult task for at least the initial phase of the conflict.

Mobile and disguised teams in numbers large than Israel is use to tracking, day to day, would pose a significant challenge.

The fact this attack could initiate at night would only make the response more difficult.

If Iran's goal was not based on civilian casualties, but simply winning the initial phase of the conflict with public opinion and perception, it would be a devastating start for Israel.

The memories of 2006 and 2008 would be topic number one for the media.

" Has Israel learned anything after the events of 2006 and 2008"?

That would be the core of what the media would ask.

The next real tactical advantage this scenario would have for Iran would be the issue of fighting from a defensive position.

This is not new to Hezbollah or other radical groups and when you stack " hit and run" tactics on top of the defensive concept, the initial phase of the conflict will almost assuredly go to Iran.

As I stated once before, the third tactic of this scenario could be temporarily neutralizing Israel Air Force Bases.

If the attacking units can place missiles onto the key airfields, just enough to interrupt runway operations, the IAF would be shaken badly.

Now, launching aircraft under attack is something any skilled air force can accomplish and I can assure you this would be the case in Israel.

The problem becomes if the runway takes damage.

Hezbollah and the Qud are easily skilled enough to understand the value of having these IAF sites under observation.

It is not out of the question these sites could come under ground attack from small tactical teams.

Actually, this concept would probably prove far more disruptive than simple Missile strikes.

An airfield under a special teams attack in the middle of the night would be a chaotic event to say the least.

Getting the penetration of such teams close enough to the IAF installations would be the hardest part of this concept, but the Qud an Hezbollah are skilled fighters and those chosen for such a mission would have planned in great detail.

So, the idea of a night operation that is scaleable based on missile, rocket, mortar attacks, probably as a diversion as specialized teams engage the IAF sites is a dangerous scenario for just about any military.

Starting a conflict without direct Iranian involvement, at least not until someone proves the Qud was part of the specialized units attacking the IAF, and yet putting Israel on their heels, for the first few hours, would be a tempting planning concept.

Here comes the problem with a " Limited" attack... the Israel response will most likely not be " Limited".

Israel has sworn never to go down the road of the 2006 2008 events again!

So, based on that, lets look at the next basic, tactical option for Iran.

The Tactics of First Strike / Asymmetric Operations:

Think of an attack that again takes place in the middle of the night... that has long range missiles and special tactics teams attacking all across the nation of Israel all at one time.

Getting the tactical teams into position would simply be a matter of overrunning typically lightly manned...outpost that are not configured for true "force on force" attacks.

Depending on when Iran decided to initiate this type of attack, lets say an attack from what is known as a " cold start"... no public warnings... no mobilization operations inside Iran. virtually no indication of pending hostilities, these outpost along the key border points would not be prepared for indirect and special operations assaults.

I'm not sure if anyone really has any idea of how many " Hostiles" are already inside the wire of Israel, but for the sake of argument, let's assume there are far more than what would be needed to add to the hysteria of a Missile, Rocket, force on force border attack in the middle of the night.

The concept of follow on attacks out of Lebanon and the Sinai by skilled Commando units, not just lightly trained kids who are ready to die for Allah in the middle of the night would be a nightmare come true for the people of Israel... it would be a nightmare come true for the rest of the civilized world.

Commando units with pre designated targets such as power stations.. rail yards.. and cell towers. would insure the panic in the country grew with each passing hour.

Long range Iranian missiles impacting inside Israel would be the first indication this event was unlike any in Israel's past!

Again, the issue of the IAF sites being temporarily neutralized would be devastating to the IDF.

The simple fact is, if properly executed, such an asymmetric attack would place Israel in a panic mode that would probably result in   Tehran becoming the first retaliatory target of the conflict.

The concept of striking Lebanon... Hezbollah locations along with other radical groups working out of Gaza would most likely fall to secondary... follow on targeting.

The first response, once the IDF confirmed long range Iranian missiles, would most likely lead to the destruction of key, pre designated strategic targets sites in Iran.

Tactically deescalating this type of an event would be virtually impossible.

Where this would lead in the next several hours would be almost as frightening as the event itself.

As I said the other day, I don't believe most people understand how dangerous a conflict between Iran and Israel could be for the entire region and the world economy.

Tomorrow, I will look at the Israel tactics of a First Strike..... limited and Fatal Blow..