“FIFTEEN
DAYS IN JUNE”
The following
is a scenario I have developed on what would lead to a true Mass Migration Crisis
on the US border and what the consequences would be. It’s my opinion, but it’s
based on my observations of the issue since 2011.
JUNE 2019:
In June of 2019, a series of
murders in Mexico City of local store
owners resulted to an organized march protesting the lack of security in the
city.
Several of the murdered store owners were vocal in their warning to stand up their own militia, commonly referred to as “Autodefensas”.
President Obrador was informed the protest were supported by a group known to have ties to a movement on Mexico’s campuses that had been affiliated with , Yo soy 132 / I am 132.
This group had strongly supported the concept of the Arab Spring in Mexico in 2012.
Several of the murdered store owners were vocal in their warning to stand up their own militia, commonly referred to as “Autodefensas”.
President Obrador was informed the protest were supported by a group known to have ties to a movement on Mexico’s campuses that had been affiliated with , Yo soy 132 / I am 132.
This group had strongly supported the concept of the Arab Spring in Mexico in 2012.
The protest continued for fifteen consecutive days and grew violent on the fifth day.
A policy of restraint by the Mexican authorities was deemed ineffective after a large number of more prominent businesses in Bosques de las Lomas district were attacked resulting in several large fires. US media networks began to cover the protest in Mexico city after the events in the more prominent business areas.
The President had given daily press conferences with each revolving around the issue of social injustices in Mexico and the imbalance for the distribution of wealth.
The government’s attempt to show empathy created an unintended consequence that resulted in the most violent actions on the fifth day.
A policy of restraint by the Mexican authorities was deemed ineffective after a large number of more prominent businesses in Bosques de las Lomas district were attacked resulting in several large fires. US media networks began to cover the protest in Mexico city after the events in the more prominent business areas.
The President had given daily press conferences with each revolving around the issue of social injustices in Mexico and the imbalance for the distribution of wealth.
The government’s attempt to show empathy created an unintended consequence that resulted in the most violent actions on the fifth day.
On the morning of the sixth
day of protest, a much stronger show of force was visible in the streets of Mexico
City.
World media coverage had increased dramatically and the number of individuals who were on scene posting to social media was estimated to be over 5,000.
By the evening of the sixth day, the violence in Mexico City spread dramatically.
A group who called themselves “Los Defensores” were seen in several locations of the city attempting to protect privately owned businesses.
These businesses were in the less affluent areas.
The group’s statements on social media accused the government of only protecting the upper-class areas of Mexico City.
Leaders of the protest group stated their support for the Los Defensores.
By the evening of the sixth day, the perception of unity between the protesters and the members of “ Los Defensores” was prominent on all major social media networks.
World media coverage had increased dramatically and the number of individuals who were on scene posting to social media was estimated to be over 5,000.
By the evening of the sixth day, the violence in Mexico City spread dramatically.
A group who called themselves “Los Defensores” were seen in several locations of the city attempting to protect privately owned businesses.
These businesses were in the less affluent areas.
The group’s statements on social media accused the government of only protecting the upper-class areas of Mexico City.
Leaders of the protest group stated their support for the Los Defensores.
By the evening of the sixth day, the perception of unity between the protesters and the members of “ Los Defensores” was prominent on all major social media networks.
On day seven, Doctor Jose Manuel Mireles, a leading figure
in Mexico’s Autodefensas movements, stated the government needed to listen to the
needs of the people before the situation in Mexico City became out of hand.
On day seven, units from SEDENA stationed near Mexico City were dispatched to support law enforcement operations in the city.
The President had been reluctant to order such actions given his campaign promise to remove the Mexican military from the streets of Mexico.
By the evening of day seven, reports on social media showed large protest in several other major cities throughout Mexico, most notably in Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez and Puebla.
The protest in these cities were reported to be supported by organizers from the same movement, “ I am 132”.
The Mexican government also became convinced that other outside sources were supporting these protest and the observations of several social media networks seemed to support that assumption.
On day seven, units from SEDENA stationed near Mexico City were dispatched to support law enforcement operations in the city.
The President had been reluctant to order such actions given his campaign promise to remove the Mexican military from the streets of Mexico.
By the evening of day seven, reports on social media showed large protest in several other major cities throughout Mexico, most notably in Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez and Puebla.
The protest in these cities were reported to be supported by organizers from the same movement, “ I am 132”.
The Mexican government also became convinced that other outside sources were supporting these protest and the observations of several social media networks seemed to support that assumption.
By the evening of the eighth
day, world media networks were spinning a picture of Mexico being in a full-scale
crisis and the analogy of a Mexican “Arab Spring” was being used by networks such
as CNN, MSNBC, BBC and Sputnik.
At that same time, major business districts in Mexico City had been closed for three days and the number of people in and around the city began to fear the protest would spiral out of control.
The President continued to be reluctant to use a higher level of force from the Mexican Military and by the morning of the 9th day, the whole world was watching Mexico.
At that same time, major business districts in Mexico City had been closed for three days and the number of people in and around the city began to fear the protest would spiral out of control.
The President continued to be reluctant to use a higher level of force from the Mexican Military and by the morning of the 9th day, the whole world was watching Mexico.
Others:
By the fourth day, IRGC
intelligence briefings in Tehran informed their leadership that the events inside
Mexico posed a growing threat to the United States and it was obvious the US
government was becoming more and more concerned about what was taking place.
Iranian cyber assets were tasked to leverage this event to the greatest extent possible.
Iranian social media operations were assigned to paint a picture of a true Arab Spring event taking place in Mexico and to tie the blame for the event on the United States government to the greatest extent possible.
A sanitized contact protocol process was implemented through several groups in Venezuela with the goal of making contact with the I am 132 movement leaders.
By the 8th day of the event, that contact had been confirmed and the flooding of social media with statements of how the US was just as responsible for the conditions in Mexico as the current Mexican government began to show up on US media networks.
On day nine, CNN and MSNBC began to paint a picture of how the Trump Administration had failed to respond effectively to the conditions that were now obvious in Mexico and that his comments about closing the border had only made a desperate people even more desperate.
On day nine, US intelligence networks confirmed the influence that was now taking place was not only from Iran, but from Venezuela and “others”.
The US President was informed the violence in Mexico showed no signs of subsiding and there were growing indicators inside of SEDENA that senior leaders were becoming alarmed.
A SEDENA senior officer, assigned as a liaison to NORTHCOM, had made the comment that many of his peers believed the situation could become much worse.
Iranian cyber assets were tasked to leverage this event to the greatest extent possible.
Iranian social media operations were assigned to paint a picture of a true Arab Spring event taking place in Mexico and to tie the blame for the event on the United States government to the greatest extent possible.
A sanitized contact protocol process was implemented through several groups in Venezuela with the goal of making contact with the I am 132 movement leaders.
By the 8th day of the event, that contact had been confirmed and the flooding of social media with statements of how the US was just as responsible for the conditions in Mexico as the current Mexican government began to show up on US media networks.
On day nine, CNN and MSNBC began to paint a picture of how the Trump Administration had failed to respond effectively to the conditions that were now obvious in Mexico and that his comments about closing the border had only made a desperate people even more desperate.
On day nine, US intelligence networks confirmed the influence that was now taking place was not only from Iran, but from Venezuela and “others”.
The US President was informed the violence in Mexico showed no signs of subsiding and there were growing indicators inside of SEDENA that senior leaders were becoming alarmed.
A SEDENA senior officer, assigned as a liaison to NORTHCOM, had made the comment that many of his peers believed the situation could become much worse.
On the morning of the 10th
day, the largest gathering of the protest was scheduled to take place
at 6pm local time in Mexico City.
The protest was scheduled to be outside The Federal District Buildings.
As soon as the Mexican government became aware of this event, it was decided to announce no such event would be authorized and that anyone who showed up there would face a stern response. By 5pm, it was estimated over 200,000 protesters had arrived at the location.
At apx. 5:15pm, several social media networks were reporting shots being fired into the crowd and numerous injuries were taken place.
Most of the postings indicated the shootings were continuing and members of SEDENA were seen firing into the crowd of protestors.
The protest was scheduled to be outside The Federal District Buildings.
As soon as the Mexican government became aware of this event, it was decided to announce no such event would be authorized and that anyone who showed up there would face a stern response. By 5pm, it was estimated over 200,000 protesters had arrived at the location.
At apx. 5:15pm, several social media networks were reporting shots being fired into the crowd and numerous injuries were taken place.
Most of the postings indicated the shootings were continuing and members of SEDENA were seen firing into the crowd of protestors.
The first report to the US President
was based upon confirmed weapons fire at the protesters, but there was not
indication as to who was firing into the crowd.
SEDENA liaisons at NORTHCOM reported that no Mexican military unit had been given authorization to fire on civilians and it was unclear how the shooting had started.
US intelligence had tracked three groups of apx twenty males who traveled into Mexico from Venezuela within 24hrs of this event.
The violence continued until 8pm and by that time, reports of over 100 people being killed were flooding the networks.
Pictures of civilians face down in the street outside the area near the federal building were shown globally by every media network as well as all social media outlets.
The Mexican President addressed the people of Mexico at 9pm and assured them the government was not responsible for what had taken place, but the reporting pool that was in the room erupted into an uncontrolled clamor of questions that gave the appearance of a leader in full crisis mode.
By 9pm, reports of shots being fired into the crowds in the cities of Monterrey and Juarez were being reported by all sources.
At 11pm, the President of Mexico ordered the Mexican military to secure the area around the nation’s capital complex.
SEDENA liaisons at NORTHCOM reported that no Mexican military unit had been given authorization to fire on civilians and it was unclear how the shooting had started.
US intelligence had tracked three groups of apx twenty males who traveled into Mexico from Venezuela within 24hrs of this event.
The violence continued until 8pm and by that time, reports of over 100 people being killed were flooding the networks.
Pictures of civilians face down in the street outside the area near the federal building were shown globally by every media network as well as all social media outlets.
The Mexican President addressed the people of Mexico at 9pm and assured them the government was not responsible for what had taken place, but the reporting pool that was in the room erupted into an uncontrolled clamor of questions that gave the appearance of a leader in full crisis mode.
By 9pm, reports of shots being fired into the crowds in the cities of Monterrey and Juarez were being reported by all sources.
At 11pm, the President of Mexico ordered the Mexican military to secure the area around the nation’s capital complex.
On the 11th day of
the crisis, the US President’s morning briefing was almost exclusively on the
topic of events in Mexico.
Initial reports indicated the number of dead and wounded in Mexico City was over 400 with an additional 300 from other locations throughout Mexico.
Intelligence reports indicated that at least two of the teams that had been tracked from Venezuela were in Juarez and Monterrey and it was extremely possible the shootings at those locations had been supported by those teams.
The US President spoke with his Mexican counterpart within an hour of the briefing and it became clear the Mexican government was struggling to gain control of what was taking place.
That afternoon, the media reported a rally of over 1 million people had formed in Mexico City and that they were calling for the immediate resignation of the President and the Secretary of National Defense.
Global media coverage was now live and continuous.
Analogies of the comparison to the Arab Spring were being repeated by every network covering the crisis.
The protest in the city of Juarez was estimated at over 500,000 and it was rumored that almost every city worker had joined the event.
US intelligence reports also indicated that city employees in Mexico City and several other key locations were joining the events at their locations.
Initial reports indicated the number of dead and wounded in Mexico City was over 400 with an additional 300 from other locations throughout Mexico.
Intelligence reports indicated that at least two of the teams that had been tracked from Venezuela were in Juarez and Monterrey and it was extremely possible the shootings at those locations had been supported by those teams.
The US President spoke with his Mexican counterpart within an hour of the briefing and it became clear the Mexican government was struggling to gain control of what was taking place.
That afternoon, the media reported a rally of over 1 million people had formed in Mexico City and that they were calling for the immediate resignation of the President and the Secretary of National Defense.
Global media coverage was now live and continuous.
Analogies of the comparison to the Arab Spring were being repeated by every network covering the crisis.
The protest in the city of Juarez was estimated at over 500,000 and it was rumored that almost every city worker had joined the event.
US intelligence reports also indicated that city employees in Mexico City and several other key locations were joining the events at their locations.
Events slide out of control:
By nightfall of the 11th
day, the city of Juarez was reported to be without power.
Indications were, the employees responsible for keeping the network running had joined the protest and a large fire had resulted in a cascading power failure.
US Intelligence reported the fire that had started at two major power junctions seemed to be related as they took place within 10 minutes of each other and after two small explosions were witnessed at both locations.
The US President authorized immediate intelligence air assets over the city of Juarez as well as the closure of all ports of entry into the city of El Paso.
Reports of the closures reached the public within the first hour after the orders went into effect.
The SEDENA liaison at NORTCOM reported the city of Juarez would come under curfew by order of the President at midnight local time.
News of this curfew reached the media within the hour and the situation in Mexico was perceived as critical.
At daybreak on the 12th day, the analysis of the situation in Juarez indicated the city would be without power for up to two months and that was based on those who understood how to run the network returning to work.
By noon that day, reports of looting inside the city were being reported by all networks.
By 3pm that day, SEDENA units were seen moving into the city in large numbers.
CNN then released a story of Mexican citizens who had been in the city of El Paso prior to the event attempting to locate family members inside Juarez.
CNN reported that nearly 60 percent of the US families in El Paso had family members in Juarez and the issue of their safety became a topic on that network.
An official request to set up a process to allow family members in Juarez into El Paso was denied by the US government.
The media then began to question the issue of expatriates and US citizens inside Mexico and how they would be brought back to the US.
This topic was quickly made into an issue of the Administration’s failure to properly deal with the crisis.
Other Ports of Entry into the US had remained open, but it was becoming clear the crisis in Mexico was bringing into question the US government’s plan for dealing with what was taking place.
By nightfall on the 12th day, the protest in Mexico City was seen as completely out of control.
The Mexican military had been ordered to implement a curfew in the city that would run from 9pm to 6am until further notice.
Social media postings made it obvious the curfew was being ignored .
At apx 11pm on the night of the 12th day of the crisis, reports of numerous shots being fired in several locations in and around Mexico City were being reported by all networks.
US intelligence indicated that most of the activity was not based on organized operations but most likely do to those looking to exploit the crisis.
Looting had grown exponentially by the 12th day and the ability of the government to stop such large dispersed events was impossible.
On the evening of the 12th day, the US President authorized air assets to be flown over critical areas in an attempt to gain as much intelligence on the crisis as possible.
US citizens in Mexico had been leaving for the past five days and that pace was dramatically increased when the US department of State put out an advisory for all US citizens to depart a growing list of locations in Mexico.
This DoS advisory was immediately picked up by the major networks and the intensity of the crisis was portrayed as being nearly out of control.
On the morning of the 13th day, the airports In Mexico City and other locations were overwhelmed by the number of non-Mexican and Mexican citizens departing the country.
Cruise ships had been advised to avoid their typical ports of call and the news of that event drove the perception of the crisis even further into panic.
That same day, power was lost in most areas of Mexico City as well as several other locations in the country.
It had become obvious the people who maintained these networks were not showing up for work and thus the impact was being seen across Mexico.
Without power, sewer and water production was lost and the result was dramatic in Mexico City.
The concept of filling in these critical positions with military members proved to be ineffective as they had no understanding of local networks.
On the morning of the 14th day of the crisis, the US government decided that all ports of entry to the US would be closed and all US citizens would be ordered out of Mexico.
NORTHCOM was tasked with the lead support mission to insure all US ports of entry along the US border would be closed and prepared to support operations to validate any US citizen who might show up at those locations.
The news of this operation overwhelmed the media networks.
The primary discussion became Mexico was collapsing into a “Failed Nation State”.
The past 13 days of the crisis had had a dramatic impact on the world markets, but the news of the US closing all Ports of Entry and assigning the US military to process US citizens back into the US had the greatest impact.
Markets were ordered closed within an hour of this plan being announced, but not before breakers had to be implemented after a 3,000-point drop.
Overall, the US stock market had fallen 20 percent since the beginning of the crisis.
On the evening of the 14th day, US intelligence indicated Mexico’s ten largest cities had no power and looting was taking place at an “extreme” level.
The Mexican President informed the US President he was implementing Article 29 of the Mexican Constitution, Mexico’s version of Martial Law.
At midnight of the 15th day, that announcement was made to the media.
The Mexican military was now ordered to restore order in any territory or city at any cost.
For those who were not Mexican citizens and where still in Mexico, the level of panic was extremely visible.
Media outlets began to show panic at all airports and vehicles lined up at the US Ports of Entry for miles.
Without power in many regions, the ability to purchase gasoline led to those leaving by roadway to abandon their efforts.
On the afternoon of the 15th, The President of the US held a discussion with his Mexican counterpart on the probability of the US having to secure the safety of US citizens inside of Mexico.
The Mexican President assured his US counterpart that action would not be necessary.
He also stated he would be deeply opposed to any US military involvement on Mexican soil, to include the areas around the Ports of Entry.
The conversation ended with the Mexican President stating he would appeal to the UN for immediate support as he regained control of his country from what he stated was a temporary and deliberate crisis, supported by “others”.
Indications were, the employees responsible for keeping the network running had joined the protest and a large fire had resulted in a cascading power failure.
US Intelligence reported the fire that had started at two major power junctions seemed to be related as they took place within 10 minutes of each other and after two small explosions were witnessed at both locations.
The US President authorized immediate intelligence air assets over the city of Juarez as well as the closure of all ports of entry into the city of El Paso.
Reports of the closures reached the public within the first hour after the orders went into effect.
The SEDENA liaison at NORTCOM reported the city of Juarez would come under curfew by order of the President at midnight local time.
News of this curfew reached the media within the hour and the situation in Mexico was perceived as critical.
At daybreak on the 12th day, the analysis of the situation in Juarez indicated the city would be without power for up to two months and that was based on those who understood how to run the network returning to work.
By noon that day, reports of looting inside the city were being reported by all networks.
By 3pm that day, SEDENA units were seen moving into the city in large numbers.
CNN then released a story of Mexican citizens who had been in the city of El Paso prior to the event attempting to locate family members inside Juarez.
CNN reported that nearly 60 percent of the US families in El Paso had family members in Juarez and the issue of their safety became a topic on that network.
An official request to set up a process to allow family members in Juarez into El Paso was denied by the US government.
The media then began to question the issue of expatriates and US citizens inside Mexico and how they would be brought back to the US.
This topic was quickly made into an issue of the Administration’s failure to properly deal with the crisis.
Other Ports of Entry into the US had remained open, but it was becoming clear the crisis in Mexico was bringing into question the US government’s plan for dealing with what was taking place.
By nightfall on the 12th day, the protest in Mexico City was seen as completely out of control.
The Mexican military had been ordered to implement a curfew in the city that would run from 9pm to 6am until further notice.
Social media postings made it obvious the curfew was being ignored .
At apx 11pm on the night of the 12th day of the crisis, reports of numerous shots being fired in several locations in and around Mexico City were being reported by all networks.
US intelligence indicated that most of the activity was not based on organized operations but most likely do to those looking to exploit the crisis.
Looting had grown exponentially by the 12th day and the ability of the government to stop such large dispersed events was impossible.
On the evening of the 12th day, the US President authorized air assets to be flown over critical areas in an attempt to gain as much intelligence on the crisis as possible.
US citizens in Mexico had been leaving for the past five days and that pace was dramatically increased when the US department of State put out an advisory for all US citizens to depart a growing list of locations in Mexico.
This DoS advisory was immediately picked up by the major networks and the intensity of the crisis was portrayed as being nearly out of control.
On the morning of the 13th day, the airports In Mexico City and other locations were overwhelmed by the number of non-Mexican and Mexican citizens departing the country.
Cruise ships had been advised to avoid their typical ports of call and the news of that event drove the perception of the crisis even further into panic.
That same day, power was lost in most areas of Mexico City as well as several other locations in the country.
It had become obvious the people who maintained these networks were not showing up for work and thus the impact was being seen across Mexico.
Without power, sewer and water production was lost and the result was dramatic in Mexico City.
The concept of filling in these critical positions with military members proved to be ineffective as they had no understanding of local networks.
On the morning of the 14th day of the crisis, the US government decided that all ports of entry to the US would be closed and all US citizens would be ordered out of Mexico.
NORTHCOM was tasked with the lead support mission to insure all US ports of entry along the US border would be closed and prepared to support operations to validate any US citizen who might show up at those locations.
The news of this operation overwhelmed the media networks.
The primary discussion became Mexico was collapsing into a “Failed Nation State”.
The past 13 days of the crisis had had a dramatic impact on the world markets, but the news of the US closing all Ports of Entry and assigning the US military to process US citizens back into the US had the greatest impact.
Markets were ordered closed within an hour of this plan being announced, but not before breakers had to be implemented after a 3,000-point drop.
Overall, the US stock market had fallen 20 percent since the beginning of the crisis.
On the evening of the 14th day, US intelligence indicated Mexico’s ten largest cities had no power and looting was taking place at an “extreme” level.
The Mexican President informed the US President he was implementing Article 29 of the Mexican Constitution, Mexico’s version of Martial Law.
At midnight of the 15th day, that announcement was made to the media.
The Mexican military was now ordered to restore order in any territory or city at any cost.
For those who were not Mexican citizens and where still in Mexico, the level of panic was extremely visible.
Media outlets began to show panic at all airports and vehicles lined up at the US Ports of Entry for miles.
Without power in many regions, the ability to purchase gasoline led to those leaving by roadway to abandon their efforts.
On the afternoon of the 15th, The President of the US held a discussion with his Mexican counterpart on the probability of the US having to secure the safety of US citizens inside of Mexico.
The Mexican President assured his US counterpart that action would not be necessary.
He also stated he would be deeply opposed to any US military involvement on Mexican soil, to include the areas around the Ports of Entry.
The conversation ended with the Mexican President stating he would appeal to the UN for immediate support as he regained control of his country from what he stated was a temporary and deliberate crisis, supported by “others”.
On the evening of the 15th
day, the President’s now continuous situational reporting updates on the events
in Mexico indicated that an estimated 2 million people were moving towards the
US border and the percentage of US citizens inside this movement was unknown.
Most of the cell phone communications between families in the US had been interrupted due to the loss of power in Mexico.
By the morning of the 16th day, the US was facing a Mass Migration crisis unlike anything it had encountered in its history.
Most of the cell phone communications between families in the US had been interrupted due to the loss of power in Mexico.
By the morning of the 16th day, the US was facing a Mass Migration crisis unlike anything it had encountered in its history.
